Kansas City is 4-16 ATS in its past 20 games including playoffs and 0-6 ATS this season vs teams currently above .500, which the Raiders are. There are some injury concerns for KC at right tackle with Mike Remmers landing on IR and Lucas Niang out tonight. That could be a serious issue against the Raiders' Maxx Crosby and/or Yannick Ngakoue. They have combined for 11 sacks and 31 quarterback hits.

The Chiefs are obviously on the struggle bus. This is a team that's combined to score 36 points in its three games, a total Kansas City used to eclipse frequently in a single game. Despite that, KC is still in the thick of it in a crowded AFC race, and a rivalry showdown like this in Week 10 is a perfect opportunity to get right. As far as the Raiders, nothing this team does is intimidating: not the offense, not the defense, not the special teams. This is more a gut play than a head play, but those have worked out so far this season. Given the Chiefs' plethora of weapons, and the fact that I expect plenty of points to be scored here, this is a KC lean.

In the Patrick Mahomes era, the Chiefs are 5-1 against the Raiders. Even though the Chiefs are struggling, this is a great opportunity for them to get back on track because of the Raiders' defensive injuries. The Chiefs' defense is getting better and has allowed 24 points over their last two games. K.C. to cover easily.

The spread has been stubbornly stuck with the hook, unwilling to move to a more advantageous three points. Ultimately, it may not matter. The Chiefs, 4-16 ATS in their last 20, somehow are a clear favorite on the road against a formidable foe. Las Vegas put up 71 points in the series a year ago and appears to hold the key to unlock the Chiefs' defense. Patrick Mahomes has been in scrambling mode and will need to be motoring against a dogged pass rush.

Kansas City continues to get the benefit of the doubt from bettors and oddsmakers despite continually underperforming. I realize the Raiders looked bad last week, but they return home on Sunday and will be eager to bounce back from that loss. They're 3-1 at home this season. Vegas covers.

Turmoil has struck the Raiders off the field; that was definitely a catalyst in last week’s loss to the Giants. On Sunday night they’ll aim to regroup at home against a Kansas City team that still has not looked sharp offensively. I expect the Chiefs' new way of winning without the glitz and glamour to continue as the Raiders' backpedaling continues. Play the Chiefs.

The Chiefs have stayed Under the total in their last four and have failed to cover the spread in their last three, winning the last two barely at home against the Giants and the Packers with no Aaron Rodgers. The Packers outgained the Chiefs by 64 yards with Jordan Love at QB and totaled only 237 yards. The Chiefs offense trying to hide Patrick Mahomes was hard to watch. I’m on the Raiders to bounce back.

Despite reports of their demise, the Chiefs have pieced together back to back wins. So no reason to worry anymore, right? Well, they didn't cover in either win despite playing limited offenses, and that's because the Chiefs offense has ground to a halt. The Raiders were upended by the Giants but had no issues moving the ball or slowing the Giants' attack down, and they still have an excellent +0.9 yards per play differential on the year. Their pass defense has been particularly excellent all year, which makes getting back on track harder for the Chiefs. I hoped to get this at +3, and maybe you can, but I like Vegas either way.

In the previous six meetings, the Chiefs were favored by double digits four times and by at least a touchdown twice. So this line is striking. While Kansas City's offense continues to struggle, the defense has improved (16 points allowed per game over the last four). The Raiders will be without defensive tackle Darius Philon (ankle), and they also could be missing linebacker Nick Kwiatkoski (ankle) and defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins (back). That could make things easier for Patrick Mahomes, who showed last week he can play turnover-free football. K.C.'s strong offensive line -- only three pressures allowed vs. Packers -- should hold up versus Maxx Crosby and Yannick Ngakoue (combined 11 sacks).

We started to see a little bit of that "Mahomes Magic" last Sunday against the Packers at the end of the game, converting a game-clinching first down. We also saw a Raiders team self-destruct vs. a Giants club that wasn't doing much offensively. If the Raiders protect the ball, this game will be as close as the spread indicates, but I feel what we saw from the Chiefs was a sign they are about ready to turn the corner.

Don't look now but are the Chiefs kind of, somewhat, putting some things back together? I'm not going to get too excited about scoring 13 and 20 against the Packers and Giants respectively by any means but at least the arrow is moving up as a team. You're catching two division opponents both desperately needing a win and they both know it will take points to do it. Expect both QB's to take multiple shots down the field and both defenses to not only give some of them up but also get flagged as well. 28-24 brings us home.