The Bills are getting a lot of credit for taking advantage of a horrendous Seahawks defense last week, and I just don't think Josh Allen is going to have the same success against a Cardinals unit that ranks 11th in pass defense DVOA. Kyler Murray is looking unstoppable, and Arizona is at home for the third straight week. I missed the best line, but a field goal still provides value as I have the Cardinals -4.5 entering the game.

These offenses should thrive in the desert. The Bills racked up 44 points at home in last week's victory over Seattle while the Cardinals have scored 30 or more in each of their last three games. Expect Buffalo's Josh Allen and Arizona's Kyler Murray to continue putting points on the scoreboard in this showdown.

The Bills number is inflated here after key wins against Seattle and New England. The story of this game is the injuries and COVID-19 protocols impacting the Bills defense. I make the Cardinals -4.5 points better at home with Kenyan Drake expected to return and split carries with Chase Edmonds. Lay it.

Thus far, the Bills have proven their strength against the NFC West. They’ve scored their highest and second-highest amount points this season against the Seahawks and Rams, respectively. It's unlikely they'll continue the trend, as the Cardinals are coming off a game against Miami in which they punted just once. Expect Arizona to cut down on turnovers and continue to execute its offense at a high degree.

Arizona ranks second in rushing yards, right behind Baltimore, and 13th in passing yards. The Cardinals are ninth in offensive DVOA and 10th in defensive DVOA. Buffalo's offense ranks 10th while its defense is 18th. The Bills are coming off back-to-back wins over New England and Seattle. However, they will be without several players - including CB Josh Norman - because of COVID-19. I have the Cardinals by eight.

Terrific matchup between rising dual-threat star QBs Josh Allen and Kyler Murray. It feels like perhaps a bit of a letdown game for Buffalo off back-to-back huge home wins over New England and Seattle and ahead of the team's bye week. The Bills are also down two of their top three cornerbacks in Josh Norman and Levi Wallace due to COVID-19 protocols plus tight end Tyler Kroft. Arizona might get back top RB Kenyan Drake, who is a game-time call, but we like the Cards regardless as Buffalo is 1-5 ATS in its past six on the road.

With only three ATS defeats in their last 11 games, the Cardinals remain undervalued. Here, they welcome a visitor that has covered once in the past six away from home. Buffalo learned Saturday its roster will be light four players, including standout CB Josh Norman, because of COVID-19 restrictions. The other three are starters and oft-used backups. Three of the four are DBs, so QB Kyler Murray could torch a patchwork secondary.

The Bills are coming off a pair of wins against two marquee franchises in the Patriots (a big win for Buffalo due to their history, no matter how bad the Pats have been) and Seahawks. With a bye next week, this is the perfect sleepy spot on the road for a Buffalo team that has been hot and cold all year. The Cardinals have a Thursday night game ahead so this would normally be a trap spot for them as well, but the fact they outplayed the Dolphins last week and lost is a great motivating factor. This Arizona run game should carve up the Bills defense, and Arizona is a solid 11th in pass defense DVOA. I think we're getting value under 3.

This is a great matchup for Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs versus Arizona's predominantly man coverages. They're back on track now and Buffalo's passing attack should thrive in these perfect conditions. It doesn't hurt that Budda Baker is dealing with a groin injury. Back the road dog.

This is a great QB matchup. Arizona could have tied the game last week if not for a missed field goal. The Bills aren't going to travel well in this spot. They're not going to sack Kyler Murray the way they did Russell Wilson. Back the Cardinals.

I’ve got the Bills 1.5 points better than the Cardinals on a neutral field and for the inconvenience of traveling west, I give the home team almost a full-point advantage. But the total is the area I’m keyed in on. I don’t see either team stopping the other. Arizona started the season with six straight Unders, but its defense will be shredded as it was against Seattle and Miami the last two weeks to send both games Over. Over is the top play here.