Lost amid all the excitement about the matchup that might serve as an AFC title game preview is that both clubs are capable on the defensive side as well. The Chiefs have yielded 20 points to each of their first two opponents, while the Ravens have allowed 22 combined points to the Browns and Texans. The ability to get stops will be just as important as the explosive plays we are bound to see. Let's fade the public and scalp some value on the Under.

The NFL has seen the most points scored in the first three weeks of any season in 2020. The median points scored in Week 1 was 46, it was 58 in Week 2 and currently is 49 in Week 3. Monday Night Football will be a great showcase for another 30-point performance for both teams. Kansas City is my top-rated offense while Baltimore is No. 2, and the key to the game is the average Kansas City defense. I have the Chiefs ranked 17th in the NFL.

Patrick Mahomes has gone 28-8 in his NFL career, including playoffs, and of those eight losses, four were by three points or fewer. With Mahomes as starter, the Chiefs have never lost by more than seven. The Ravens are a great team, no doubt, but as great as they are, do you want to count on K.C. to lose by an amount that's happened just four times in history with Mahomes at the wheel? Grab the 3.5 with the Super Bowl champs.

These are the two best teams in the NFL, and the line is fluctuating, so I'm jumping on the hook. The Ravens are rightly favored in the biggest Monday Night Football game of the year, but it should be 1.5 points. Baltimore is getting the inflated line not just because of Kansas City's close game last week but due to the fact that the Ravens have only allowed 22 points through two games. The Chiefs may not have covered last week, but they didn't prepare for Justin Herbert. The offense is humming, and the defense is underrated. This is a game KC won by five last year but led by 17. Both teams have improved in the offseason. I was already leaning toward the Chiefs, but this line cemented the pick. Either way, let's do this again in the AFC Championship Game.

All you have to do is show me points with the Chiefs and I’m likely on board as long as Patrick Mahomes is playing. They’ve gone 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games, surpassing time and again the high rating already bestowed upon them. You could argue Ravens -3 is proper at home with the stands full of fans. So anything at +3 or higher without a full crowd presents value to me. I’m buying the Chiefs and taking all the points.

This is a great matchup between the two best teams in the NFL. Where the Ravens have an advantage this year is along the line of scrimmage. The Chiefs' offensive line had its issues with the Chargers' pass rush, and the Ravens, with the addition of both Calais Campbell and Derek Wolfe, should be able to keep Patrick Mahomes and the passing game from gaining any traction. On the offensive front for Baltimore, reigning MVP Lamar Jackson already looks in midseason form.

This line move is an overreaction to how the Chiefs looked last week vs. a division opponent. These are the NFL's top two teams, by a wide margin. Look for a thriller that comes down to the wire, and take the points.

I think we're getting an extra point here because the Chiefs struggled to score against the Chargers last week, but it was against a defense that knows them well and is built specifically to slow them down. The Chiefs beat the Ravens 33-28 last year but had a 30-13 lead entering the fourth quarter in a game where they split RB snaps between Darrel Williams and LeSean McCoy. Clyde Edwards-Helaire gives the offense a new dimension and puts more pressure on Ravens defense to slow down too many weapons. But the thinking is simple: if you can get more than a field goal with one of the two best teams in the NFL (and maybe the best), shouldn't you take it? I will.

Patrick Mahomes has been a little slow out of the blocks, for his standards. The Ravens have a great running game, a great defense and I just think they're the better team right now. Lay the points.

Let’s just declare this the AFC Championship game. (It would be the Super Bowl if they were in different conferences). Don’t outthink it. Receiving more than a field goal on either side -- in this case, KC -- is irresistible. Baltimore was the more impressive squad Sunday, but the Chiefs’ offense faced a testy matchup that it eventually overcame. Its defense was unprepared for surprise starter Justin Herbert at QB.

I was happy to see this move to +3.5 after the Chiefs struggled to beat the Chargers in overtime. On a neutral field, these teams are separated by 0.8 points in my simulations, with the Ravens having the edge. Add in 2.7 points for home field advantage and you have a number close to where the market is currently. However, I only give the Ravens one point for home field advantage under the current restrictions on fans, making the true spread -1.8 points for Baltimore. This is a tough spot for bookmakers as they have to have at least -3 on the board with the public perception of both teams current form. Take the points.