It is never advisable to pick against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady in Foxborough during the playoffs. They are, respectively, the best coach and quarterback in Saturday's game. And yet, I cannot get past the way the Patriots have been playing down the stretch, losing three of their last five games, including to the hapless Dolphins in a key game at home with a bye on the line. As someone who follows Miami personally and has historically loathed trusting Tennessee, believing in Ryan Tannehill and the Titans is a tough task. Here we are. I will ensure I have the full 5 points on this one, but I will also sprinkle on the Titans straight up. Look for Derrick Henry to have a big game.

The Brady-Belichick era is bound to end at some point ... I just don't think that curtain gets drawn Saturday. It's a bit surprising, considering New England's postseason success at home, just how many observers seem to believe the upstart Titans will be the club that sends Brady and friends home early. Tennessee has been impressive down the stretch but the Patriots should be able to slow down the potent running game. Brady finds a way to get the job done on the other side.

Since Ryan Tannehill took over as the starting quarterback for Tennessee, the Titans have won seven of 10 games. Tennessee played six teams with a winning record, and in those games the offense averaged 6.0 yards per carry and 9.4 yards per pass. Last week against Houston, Derrick Henry ran for 211 yards and three touchdowns. Meanwhile the Patriots lost two home games in December, including last week as a 17-point favorite with a bye on the line. The Patriots have been outgained in four of their last six games and are 1-4-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. Take the points.

At the risk of opting against Tom Brady, a famously bad-weather QB, the rainy forecast favors Tennessee with indefatigable RB Derrick Henry. The Titans do not throw much anyway with QB Ryan Tannehill, who has proven efficient down the season’s stretch. This line is boosted by the Patriots’ incomparable playoff success, which cannot be discounted. But the visitors have been superior lately, as a 5-2 ATS record attests, while the Pats closed 1-4-1 ATS. New England went 3-3 straight-up this season against plus-.500 foes, and every winning margin was by one score. Take Tennessee.

The Titans have been an entirely different team with Ryan Tannehill on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball. Not only have they scored more points with Tannehill, but they've allowed more as well because opponents have to keep up. Well, I don't know that the Patriots will need to keep up in this game, but I do know that the Over is 9-1 in Tannehill's 10 starts for a reason, and I have the Patriots winning this game 27-20. So, Over it is.

If this game were held on a random week in the middle of the regular season, I'd probably like the Titans. But how can you fade the Patriots in Foxborough in January? As great as the Titans offense has looked after their QB change, they've played exactly zero tough opponents on the road (Panthers, Colts, Raiders, Texans backups). While plenty of attention is being paid to the decline of Tom Brady and his passing game, the Pats' four best rushing performances came in their last five games. Bill Belichick can grind out first downs and points on offense, focus on slowing Derrick Henry and force Ryan Tannehill to beat him on the road in the playoffs. I give the Pats the edge there.

Tennessee creates a wide array of problems for the Patriots. The Titans can run the ball, they play solid defense, and they force turnovers. Ryan Tannehill has done wonders for the passing game. You can't bank on this New England offense, so I'd expect a very close game.

I think the Patriots are going to get beat. Last year they got killed by this team (34-10 in November 2018). Mike Vrabel knows the Pats very well. Tom Brady and Julian Edelman aren't right. The Patriots struggle against mobile quarterbacks. Ryan Tannehill didn't play well in Foxborough, Mass., when he was with Miami, but he's a much better player now on a much better team. Derrick Henry is the leading rusher in the league. How are they going to stop him?

The Titans went 7-3 with Ryan Tannehill, and they outgained their opponents in those three losses. On a yards-per-play basis, the Titans under Tannehill have been by far the NFL's most productive offense. While I don't like the fact that Derrick Henry had 32 carries last week, I can't get past the Pats' 4-4 finish to the regular season and Julian Edelman's injury-related decline. Grab the points.

The big question here is whether the Patriots can flip the switch in the playoffs and be the Patriots as we know them. The best angle is getting this game Over the total like nine of the past 10 Titans' games have gone behind Ryan Tannehill. The Patriots have gone Over in their last three. The Titans will force the issue early here, and Patriots will keep up. Over is the play.