The LA Clippers had their moments in game one but could not generate enough offense after an explosive first quarter of 35 points. Defensively though they limited Denver to 44 percent shooting, in a game that saw Jamal Murray play a season high forty eight minutes. Look for Tyronn Lue to have the necessary adjustments for the Clippers to earn a split before heading back home for game three.

Norman Powell averaged 3.0 3-pointers per game this season on fewer than 33 minutes a night. He played 37 in Game 1 and will likely be near 40 again in Game 2 as the Clippers are in basically a must-win situation. Combine more minutes with the high pace the Nuggets play at, meaning more possessions, and Powell should get at least an extra attempt or two above his normal volume. That's a good bet to take for a 42% 3-point shooter.

This isn't too far from a must-win for the Clippers, who are one of the best teams in the league and clicking on both sides of the ball. I just can't see world where they go down 0-2 in this series.

Saturday's game stayed under 224.5 despite playing five extra minutes of overtime in the Nuggets' 112-110 win. Note, however, a Denver under trend in the postseason back to the 2023 Finals vs. the Heat, with the Nuggets now 14-5 under in their last 19 playoff games. Game One didn't feature a lot of transition buckets, mostly halfcourt action with the shot clock running down, a recurring trend for the Clippers during the season. The ball in the hands of James Harden suggests few quick shots for LA, which tends to run the shot clock low on most possessions. Aside from Russell Westbrook, neither bench was especially productive on Saturday, either. Play Clippers-Nuggets Under.

That was pointspread justice if nothing else on Saturday when Norman Powell's triple at the OT buzzer got the Clippers inside of a +2.5 spread in Game One at Denver. The Clips led much of the way in regulation before the extra five minutes and still seemed like they might prevail, but get another chance in a zig-zag of sorts to level this series. The Clippers did enough right on Saturday, including 50% accuracy from the floor, while Ivica Zubac once again made Nikola Jokic work hard for everything he earned in Game One. Powell, however, can do better than his 12 points on Saturday, and remember LA is still 19-4 across its last 23 games. Play Clippers on ML.

The Nuggets have no bench. Russell Westbrook logged 34 minutes in Game 1. Peyton Watson and Jalen Pickett combined to play 19 minutes. Those were the only three reserves to take the floor. That resulted in Jamal Murray playing 48 minutes in the Nuggets overtime win. He wasn’t efficient, but he took 20 shots, which helped him score 21 points. For his career, he has averaged 24.1 points per game during the playoffs. The Clippers have a great defense, but I think the combination of heavy minutes and a lot of shot attempts makes this over appealing.

Denver interim coach David Adelman benched Michael Porter Jr. about halfway through the fourth quarter of Game 1 and didn't play him at all after because apparently Porter wasn't "engaged." So that either fires up Porter for tonight (he had just four points in the opener) or he goes into a shell. Our model his him at 17.0 points, and MPJ averaged 18.2 during the season and 15.8 vs. the Clippers.

The Clippers’ average game totals are slightly higher on the road (222) than at home (221). Denver game totals are +3 higher at home (239). I like the buy low value on a line that closed at 224.5 in Game 1. Denver played 6 guys significant minutes and if they aren’t going to rely heavily on the Peyton Watson and Jalen Pickett’s of the world they don’t have the depth and stamina to play really great defense. The Nuggets will look to outscore the Clippers. Game 1 came in under and the Clippers blew the win because they committed 20 turnovers. We are projecting them for 13 turnovers this game and those extra FGAs should lead to the points we need for the over.

This line is a full 7 points under what it was a few weeks ago because Bogdan Bogdanovic only has 7 points in his last 3 games (49 combined minutes). But he definitely helped fuel the Clippers rise down the stretch. Since the Feb 8 trade and before his last 3 games he averaged 12 points a game and went over 5.5 in 25 of 28 games (89.2%, higher than his 87.5% FT% as a Clipper). Norman Powell has not been quite the same since missing a stretch in January and if Nicolas Batum + Kris Dunn aren’t hitting from three (combined for 5-11 in game 1) then they should go back to depending on Bogdanovic.

Ivica Zubac is indispensable in this series, because the Clippers need him on the floor to have any chance of slowing down Nikola Jokic. Zubac grabbed 13 rebounds in Game 1 (none in overtime) and I like him to corral at least 12 in Game 2. Zubac is playing monster minutes in every competitive game the Clippers have had recently. LA is not bringing any centers off the bench. Several books have moved this prop to 12.5. If you can find that at -115 or better, I'm good with that too for half a unit.

DraftKings. Russell Westbrook put up 15 points in Game 1 on a whopping 17 shot attempts. He played 29 regulation minutes, and wound up closing the game (including overtime) over Michael Porter Jr. Interim head coach David Adelman has not been shy with switching it up in crunch time, which has lead to some more minutes for Russ when he’s going good. And even yet, Westbrook should clear this just with his normal workload: he’s cleared this line in 27 of the last 38 games with both Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic (averaging 13.9 per game in that span). Even against the tough Clippers defense, it’s a better spot for ball-handlers such as Russ, than spot up shooters like MPJ.

Jamal Murray has elevated his play in the postseason throughout his career. Murray played a whopping 48 minutes in Denver’s Game Overtime victory and compiled 37 PRA. Murray shot just 7-20 from the field and I expect him to continue to be aggressive offensively in Game 2. His hamstring issues that plagued him through the last month of the regular season appear to be in the rear view mirror. Murray is capable of eclipsing this PRA line with just points alone. I expected this number to open between 31.5 and 32.5. With another big performance there is a good chance this line won’t ever be below 30 for the remainder of the playoffs. I like this as a full unit play at 29.5.

Nuggets treated Game 1 like a Game 7 - 4 starters racked up 45+ mins riding a two-man bench to an OT win they were a little lucky to get. No Clipper played 45 mins and they adjusted to altitude in long game. You think Russell Westbrook will be a +7 again with 1 TO in 34 mins vs the NBA's No. 3 rated defensive team over final 15 games? DEN lost 3 of 4 playoff games at home last year and now 3-14 ATS vs non-play-in, playoff teams at home this season. Nuggets 2-13 ATS last 15 games at home overall. Can Nuggets play that kind of defense two straight after getting their coach fired for atrocious defending down the stretch? I doubt it.