Jonathan Kuminga has enjoyed a third year breakout and 21 year old forward raised his scoring average by nearly 7 PPG after scoring 16.1 PPG in the regular season. Kuminga came on really strong in the second half of the season and averaged roughly 20 PPG since January 1st. We're getting a significant discount on this scoring prop as it's yet to be seen how many minutes Kuminga plays tonight, but I believe this number is a few points to low considering hes likely to play at least 25 minutes.

These clubs split four regular-season meetings, with three of them decided by exactly one point. In last year's playoffs, the Warriors rallied to win the seven-game series, but not before dropping the first two games in Sacramento. Amid the backdrop of one of the best home-court edges in the NBA, the right move is to fade the public and back the home underdog.

Lyles is a very good long rebounder and he should play 20 plus minutes as the Kings are without Monk and Heurter. A nice plus money spot

If the Sacramento Kings are going to defeat the Golden State Warriors they will need elevated play from Keegan Murray. Murray has the skills on both ends of the floor, and can help fill the void of being without Malik Monk. In the month of April thus far he is averaging 17 points per game. In a lose and go home situation look for Murray to leave it all on the floor. Play his over.

Sacramento is 24-17 at home. However, the Kings have lost four of their last seven home games and are 0-3 ATS and SU at home when the line is in-between +2 and -2. Golden State has played their best basketball on the road with a 25-16 record. The Warriors have the more experienced team and better coach in this scenario. They’re also 19-2 SU as away favorites and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games on the road.

Three of the four regular-season meetings between the teams were decided by just one point so I'm not about to take Warriors -2. The Warriors should have a massive backcourt advantage with the Kings missing Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk. Each played in all four games of the series and combined to average 23.5 points, 9.5 rebounds and 6.5 assists. And the Dubs have been better away this season. They won 17 of their final 21 away. No other team had a 17-4 road run all season.

Experience counts, or so the oddsmakers seem to think, granting the Warriors some real respect in the play-in round despite playing on the road. Been there, done that; the last time Golden State was in a do-or-die at Golden 1 Center, the Warriors rolled past the Kings in the first round last spring. Of course, Sacto hasn't advanced in a postseason matchup since 2004, and the Kings lost some momentum down the stretch. The Warriors likely deal with Domantas Sabonis with a combo of Draymond Green and rookie Trayce Jackson-Davis, though with Gary Payton II hurting, it might be up to rookie Brandin Podziemski to slow De'Aaron Fox. The Dubs also have Steph and Klay, and real postseason chops...something the Kings lack. Play Warriors

TJD became a bit of the thing down the stretch for the Warriors and his fresh legs will serve this older team well here. Draymond's rebound numbers are low vs the Kings and the insertion of this kid with the starting five has cashed for us recently. Can get boards in bunches and averaged 7.1/G over the last 10. Only played 2 1/2 mins vs the Kings this season. Teams haven't met for months. I expect him to be a factor. Had 7+ rebounds in 6 of 8 games in April. I think Kerr gives him decent minutes

This line is priced using the wrong logic. This takes a look at his season average and last year's stats against the Kings. However, Steph Curry has had strong road trends this season, specifically recently. He comes into this game 6-2 to this over, averaging 11.8 rebounds and assists in that span. This line has already steamed up from 9.5.

The Kings had a rough stretch to close out the season losing five of seven games with their only wins coming against Portland at home and at the Brooklyn Nets. The Warriors are playing the strongest of their season winning 10 of their final 12 in the most desperate spot of the season. This to me is a mismatch. If the game were played in January it be the Kings all day but a lot of things have happened since then. Warriors to cover.

Finishing with the 10th seed in the West is certainly a disappointment for the Warriors. However, they finished the regular season on a high note, winning 10 of their last 12 games. Just as impressive is that six of those 10 wins came on the road, where they finished 25-16. The Kings have gone in the other direction, losing five of their last seven games. The Warriors enter this matchup with no key injuries, while the Kings are down Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk. Their absences further tilt the scales in the Warriors’ favor to earn a victory.

GS is far better on the road than at home; here they get to go away - but to the closest spot possible - on equal rest. I like it. Warriors tied for 5th in road wins, were 4th in road net rating, 2nd in reb %, 6th in effective FG%. SAC 16th in home wins, 17th in net rating, 8th in reb%, 16th in EFG. GS led NBA 12-4 on road post ASG; SAC just 9-8 at home in that span. GS has the playoff pedigree and stud coach. Role guys showed well down stretch. GS won 7 of last 8 on road; only loss at DAL. SAC 1-4 at home last 5 vs playoff teams.