Gabe Vincent is shooting lights out to open the NBA Finals. He is averaging fifty eight percent from the field and has drained nine three pointers. Yet, his points prop number has not budged. Expect, other Heat players to step up like Caleb Martin and Jimmy Butler. Vincent should also see better defense from the Nuggets versus a cushion for easy shots. Take his under.

In his last 10 games, Aaron Gordon has gone over this number twice. In both instances he took more shots than his average (in fact he took at least 10 shots both times) and made at least 65% of the shots. If he doesn’t shoot more than expected AND make a higher percentage than expected, he should be under 12.5 points. Finally, if he gets fouled, Gordon is barely 60% from the free-throw line, so in a close late game he may not want the ball.

Entering the Game 2 loss, Denver had won 7 straight playoff games, which were all against either Kevin Durant, LeBron James or Jimmy Butler. The Nuggets are not the ‘86 Celtics or the ‘96 Bulls. So they were due for a clunker. And despite playing putridly on offense and defense (their own coach openly chewed out his team’s effort), they were a Jamal Murray shot away from forcing OT. Conversely, the Heat showed you their best fastball, basically shooting 50% from 3, which included six different players making multiple three-point baskets. Let’s not overthink this one. Back the better team with the best player on the planet to get a win.

It's no secret that Denver has been much stronger at home than on the road all year, and that trend includes against the spread. While the Nuggets are 12-8 ATS as road dogs this season, they're only 11-17 ATS when favored on the road, as they are tonight. Then there's the Heat. A team that's only gone 14-26-2 ATS when favored at home this year but is 7-2 ATS as a home dog. I know they're an 8-seed, but it's ridiculous that a team that's reached the NBA Finals would be an underdog at home.

SportslineAI is predicting 26 points, rebounds, and assists for Michael Porter Jr. tonight. In the last 10 games he has gone over this number in 8 of them averaging 14 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 1.9 assists. Last game he only had 11 PRA due to a bad three point shooting night, and if he isn’t providing offensive value, he is taken out of the game due to his defense. I expect him to regress back towards the mean and have closer to his average minutes and PRA.

My first lean on Game 3 was the Heat ... but I thought Tyler Herro would finally play. He will not. So I started thinking Denver ML but now that this spread has gotten to where I can't lose on a buzzer-beater/one possession, I'm good with Miami. The Heat are an NBA-best 14-6 ATS in these playoffs. Denver was pretty shaky on the road in the regular season and has had a few bad road losses in these playoffs, although it did win both at LA. Jamal Murray has been substantially worse shooting from deep away from home this postseason. If he's off, the Heat should win outright. Don't they almost have to win on the day Lionel Messi commits to MLS Inter Miami?

Jimmy Butler scored just 13 points in Game 1 and 21 points in Game 2. The Nuggets have done a good job of not biting on his shot fakes, limiting him to five free-throw attempts over the two games. Butler has been a great passer, posting 16 total assists over the two games. That has contributed to his muted scoring totals. With Butler having scored 25 points or fewer in five of the last seven games, I’m on this under.

Gabe Vincent has scored at least 19 points in both of the first two games of this series. Going back even further, he has scored at least 15 points in six of his last eight games. There was hope that Tyler Herro (hand) might be able to return for this game, but he has already been ruled out. That should mean that Vincent continues to receive plenty of minutes and shot attempts to reach this over.

The Heat won Game 2 on the strength of their three-point shooting. They finished 17-for-35 from behind the arc, while the Nuggets shot just 11-for-28 from deep. Nikola Jokic stepped up with 41 points for the Nuggets, but Jamal Murray scored just 18 points on 15 shot attempts. With the expectation that Murray is more aggressive and that adjustments are made to deal with the Heat’s zone defense, look for the Nuggets to bounce back and take a 2-1 series lead.

Denver has been playing solid perimeter defense on Miami's three-point shooters, not giving them easy looks. The Nuggets have not shot it well from beyond the arc either. In game one, they shot 29.6 percent and in game two, 39.3 percent. Denver is fine with taking more contested two-pointers as compared to three-pointers. This game may have long, grind it out possessions especially if the three-pointers aren’t falling for Miami.

With the Miami Heat it is clear they are not playing the prettiest of basketball right now. What they are doing is fighting for forty eight full minutes. That wears down a roster like the Denver Nuggets that has special talent but is limited beyond Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. Additionally, Miami has been outstanding in game three’s this postseason with a 3-0 record. Tail the Heat.

Bruce Brown fell short of his points prop in both games one and game two by less than a basket. Where Brown is having a big issue is with his turnovers. He has had six total turnovers which is the amount he had in both the Lakers and Suns series combined. On the road for game three look for Brown’s struggles to continue. Tail his under.

Game 2 went Over the total because both teams shot the ball at a high percentage. The Nuggets were 11-for-28 from 3=point range (39%) and Miami was an incredible 17-for-35, hitting at 49%. If just one of those 28 made 3s had missed, it would have been an Under game. Miami wants to slow the game down and limit the Nuggets' offensive possession, a task that might even be easier at home than on the road. I'm also going Under 110 for the first half and Under 55.5 for the first quarter.

Miami ended Denver’s 7-0 win and cover streak against the Heat in Game 2. It took 49% shooting for the Heat from the field and 49% shooting from 3-land (17-of-35) and making 18-of-20 from the free-throw line to beat the Nuggets 111-108. All the strengths the Nuggets had all playoffs fell off, especially in the fourth quarter. They know they’re better with Nikola Jokic being a playmaker for others than scoring 41 points. Michael Porter, Aaron Gordon, and Jamal Murray lead the way. Nuggets get back to the basics, win and cover.

Jamal Murray only took 15 shots in Game 2. That tied for his fewest attempts in a game during the Nuggets' playoff run. In Game 1, he scored 26 points on 22 shot attempts. Prior to Game 2, he had scored at least 25 points in six straight games. With the Nuggets looking to avoid a 2-1 series deficit, look for Murray to be more aggressive and reach this over.

The Heat played a near-perfect game Sunday, hitting 49 percent from deep and 90 percent on free throws. Now it's up to Nuggets coach Michael Malone to adjust; I trust he will. The first move could be starting Bruce Brown over Michael Porter Jr, who was a team-worst minus-15 in Game 2. MPJ was guilty of defensive breakdowns and he had another poor shooting night. Malone definitely will scheme to free up Jamal Murray. Regardless, expect Denver to respond to its first real postseason adversity and hand Miami its third straight home playoff loss.

We unsuccessfully backed Aaron Gordon after watching him repeatedly take advantage of smaller Miami defenders by using his superior size & strength to score in the paint in game 1. Eric Spoelstra saw all he needed to see and seamlessly adjusted by reinserting Kevin Love into the starting lineup, while benching arguably the Heat's best player during the ECF in Caleb Martin. This negated Denver's size advantage and simultaneously allowed Jimmy Butler to defend Jamal Murray as well. Kevin Love finished the game +18 and I expect the Heat to go back to him in game 3. Without a clear mismatch, Gordon is unlikely attempt double digit field goals. In game 2 he shot 71%, including 2-2 from three, and still only scored 12 points.

Jimmy Butler has made his presence felt in a variety of ways in the finals. Whether it's his crafty play making, scoring down the stretch, or defending Jamal Murray in game 2. While Butler is still playing well, he does not appear to be 100% healthy and I believe his ankle injury is worse than he has let on to the media. Aaron Gordon has also done an excellent job guarding Butler and through two games has limited Jimmy to 17 PPG on 39% shooting. Even more impressive is Butler has scored the majority of his points with Gordon on the bench or switched off of him. Until Butler can prove that he can score 25+ against Denver and Gordon, I am fading him.