Ohio State is the better team and benefits from playing this game on campus in the cold, but my simulations set the line at 6. I expect Nico Iamaleava to rely on his legs more tonight and keep this one close.

This will easily be the best first-round game, but here’s the most direct way to address it: There's no situation in which Tennessee is the pick. Ohio State has a significant defensive advantage that should only be compounded by the weather and home field, making life tough on Nico Iamaleava (though there is talk about a surge of UT attendance). It feels like OSU is being discounted given its latest laughable loss to Michigan. The Buckeyes are talent-rich and capable of stifling any offense (except Oregon). Both Vols losses came on the road, and they have averaged 19.5 points in their four toughest games. (They’d have lost to Florida if not for major injury luck.) OSU must ensure the UM loss created motivation, not pressure.

Yes, we have some reservations about Vols QB Nico Iamalaeva...but we don't have any questions about the big, fast, and nasty UT defense. Into mid-November, the Vols hadn't allowed more than 19 points in any game, and after dealing with a tough SEC schedule should not be spooked about this trip to the Big Horseshoe. UT ranked fourth in total defense and recorded 29 sacks along the way, Meanwhile, star RB Dylan Sampson scored 22 TDs on the season and offers another big-time option for Josh Heupel. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes struggled at home vs. Nebraska and Michigan in league play, the offense never getting out of second gear vs. either of those. The Vols can do more than just compete in Columbus. Play Tennessee

The weather is going to play a big factor in Columbus tonight, with temperatures looking to be 25° and winds of 4 miles an hour. Tennessee only allows 13.9 points per game, fourth in the nation. Ohio State allows 10.9 points per game, first in the nation. I favor Ohio State to win the game, but I think it'll stay under the total due to the weather.

We've got the No. 8 offensive with Tennessee averaging 463 yards a game against the No. 1 defense of Ohio State that only allows 241 yards per game. For Tennessee to win they're going to have to be extra smart on offense, but also dangerous at the same time doing moves that they wouldn't normally do, but also playing conservatively. You see what I mean. Tennessee started the season out 4-0 straight up and against the spread, before we knew some of those opponents were mediocre. Then they lost to Arkansas the following week. Arkansas? Can they beat Ohio State? I don't think so. Can they stay close in Columbus and lose by only 7 or less? I don't think so. Buckeyes to cover.

The public is all over Tennessee in this one. The Buckeyes have had a lot of time to think about their performance against Michigan which some are calling for Ryan Day to be dismissed. Yes, the Buckeyes will be more motivated than ever to open up the playbook and show why they average 35+ points per game. However, their offensive line is very banged up and with how good Tennessee’s defensive line is, they should be able to contain their running game and make Will Howard beat them through the air. This will be the Volunteers toughest test, but they have the offense to be able to put up points to make this a close battle.

I believe most are missing this one key element about this matchup for the Vols, and it's their run game. This team is built a lot like Ohio State and won't back down from playing any type of game the Buckeyes want to. Expect this game to be more of a field goal than a full touchdown.

Much of the college football world snickered when Ryan Day's club lost at home to rival Michigan as 3-TD favorite. The proverbial stock on the Buckeyes is down, but that might not be a bad thing. They carry less pressure, along with the country's top-ranked defense and plenty of playmakers, into this CFP showdown. A win will merit a rematch with top-ranked Oregon. The Buckeyes can wash away the sour taste of the Michigan disaster with a decisive victory Saturday.

I was waiting to see if this line dropped to -7 and DK finally moved off 7.5. The Buckeyes are still arguably the most talented team in the country and now they will be coming in with a chip on their shoulder after being embarrassed by a hated rival. Tennessee feels like a team that is still a year away with redshirt freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava. The Vols toughest road games were against Georgia, Arkansas and Oklahoma. Despite two of those teams finishing 6-6, Tennessee went 1-2 and averaged just 18.6 points. Now they face Ohio State's top ranked defense in the Horseshoe. I think the Buckeyes pull away at home in a 31-13 kind of game.

Ohio State games went under this total in 7 of 9 Big Ten contests, while Tennessee was under this total in 5 of 8 SEC contests. The Buckeyes have the best scoring defense in America (10.9 points per game allowed), while the Volunteers are close behind (4th, 13.9 PPG allowed). I have a hard time seeing fireworks against these top defenses, though I like the home team to advance in an ugly game. Ohio State 20, Tennessee 13.

This line seems high to me. Tennessee has a +83-yard differential against fellow bowl teams, while Ohio State is +18. The Volunteers own a +6 point differential against fellow bowl teams, while the Buckeye are +5. Tennessee also has better yards per point on both sides of the ball against bowl teams this season. Don’t forget, The Vols and Penn State are the only teams to hold five opponents to season-low yardage. Tennessee is ranked higher in down-by-down consistency, ranking 28th compared to 36th for the Buckeyes. Both teams have solid kickers. However, Tennessee is ranked 43rd in net punt yards, while Ohio State is ranked 94th. The Vols went 7-5 ATS this season, including 4-0 when playing on Field Turf. Grab the points.