Luis Gil has struggled his last few outings. ...

The Reds make a rare visit to the Yankees on Tuesday. ...

Here are the early bets I made after the NFL schedule release ...

Gomber has not been good lately. And that’s being kind. Let’s isolate him (we get a better price and we don’t lose if it’s tied)

The winds are blowing out at Coors Field but nothing crazy. Milwaukee will use an opener ahead of Bryse Wilson, who has been dominant in two of his past three outings. Colorado's Austin Gomber was brutal in June with a 9.39 ERA but four of his five starts were on the road. Gomber has a 5.44 away ERA but 3.57 in Denver. Our model has 10.5 runs scored.

New York is 10-0-1 to the over against divisional opponents on the road. Over the past month, the Mets are hitting .350 with a 1.114 OPS against lefties on the road. Then why is the total juiced to the under? Mackenzie Gore faced New York in early June, allowing six runs in 4.1 innings. Since that start, Gore has allowed four runs at home in 17 innings. David Peterson pitches better on the road, 2.84 ERA, and the Nationals haven’t fared well against lefties this season, hitting .230 with a .636 OPS. The obvious play is the over with New York’s offense, so we’ll take the contrarian route.

Not often I fully align with several of my fellow experts but man this one is attractive. I commend others for getting it cheaper but still…until it’s lowered “everyone in the pool”

Toronto starter Yariel Rodriguez was a pleasant surprise in April, but then he landed on the DL with back inflammation. His return didn't go well, as the Guardians knocked him out in the second inning (after 52 pitches) on June 21. Houston strikes out at the second-lowest rate in MLB. Look for Rodriguez to go Under on his K prop.

The Blue Jays have won three of their past five and split with the Yankees in a spirited performance. They look changed for the better. They've turned the corner to a better baseball life. And that means that they go over the total with no trouble, at least that's the case for the last eight games. Their season total now is 3.99 runs a game with the highest it's been all season. But the Astros have won 9 out of their last 10 and are now 41-41 right at .500 for the first time this year. Yariel Rodriguez lost his last start giving up five runs. Astros are going to score. Just the over.

The Mets have bludgeoned their way back into the NL playoff picture, with only one scoreline in their last 12 landing below eight runs, so we don't mind giving the "total" a hard look. In the past week, it's also been a homer barrage for New York, with Brandon Nimmo going deep again on Sunday against Houston. The Mets have recorded 44 runs over their last six contests. Nine or more runs were scored in all three games between these teams in Washington last month, and Washington's MacKenzie Gore has struggled lately (6.30 ERA over his last two starts).

New York's surge began four weeks ago with a three-game sweep in Washington. Although the Mets have slipped back below .500 after losing the last two against Houston over the weekend, the indicators are still good, especially when going with David Peterson. They won all four of his June starts, including one at Nationals Park in which he allowed just two runs over 6 2/3 innings. Meanwhile, Washington's MacKenzie Gore had a pretty bumpy June, posting a 5.13 ERA. He was knocked around by the Mets on June 7, when he yielded six runs on seven hits and four walks in 4 1/3 innings of an eventual 8-7 loss.

Not sure Toronto should be excited about the recent activation of Yariel Rodriguez, who couldn't get out of the second inning against Cleveland on June 21, allowing five runs (four earned) and walking three in a disastrous return. Next up are the red-hot Astros, who have climbed above .500 for the first time this season by winning nine of their last 10 and cooling off the Mets over the weekend. Note that Hunter Brown has been the AL's hottest pitcher the past three weeks, winning each of his last four starts while allowing just one run and 16 hits across 25 innings over that span.

The Astros have won nine of 10 to suddenly get above .500. In each of their wins during the streak, they have scored at least four runs. In Monday's lone matinee, they may not need as much run insurance as pitcher Hunter Brown has dominated with just one run allowed over his last four starts. He might be named AL Pitcher of the Month for June.

Joining my colleague Propstarz here, as a small slate has provided limited options. We played the under on Framber Valdez against this Mets lineup Saturday and you have to keep fading strikeouts for lefties facing New York right now. JD Martinez was almost a problem for us vs. Valdez, as he struck out twice, but the rest of the lineup only accounted for three strikeouts from 24 batters faced. They put up 10 hits and six runs in that effort, and MacKenzie Gore is at risk of a similar fate here. The Mets did have to travel and Gore has some fairly solid strikeout metrics but I still think the line should be 5.5 so I'll take the under.

We have been fading Austin Gomber quite a bit this season and love this spot to do so again. He has lost five straight started by two runs or more, and Rockies have a -20 RD in those starts. Colorado is 5-10 when he starts with nine losses of multiple runs. In his last five starts he has a 9.39 ERA allowing a .350/.389/.580 slash line. Brew Crew is playing good ball and they beat up on bad teams (27-15 vs sub .500) and have been decent vs lefties (11-8), though this isn't an average lefty. Bryse Wilson isn't great but can eat innings. Milwaukee is the far superior team.