The Yankees' numbers against lefties are buoyed by 15 runs over six innings against Nestor Cortes and Bailey Falter. Both lefties are much worse than the southpaw they will see tonight, Kris Bubic. New York has also faced lefties Robbie Ray, Tarik Skubal and Andrew Heaney, resulting in 23 strikeouts in 17 innings and two runs allowed. Bubic has thrown at least 92 pitches in each start and avoids fly balls, which helps when pitching in Yankee Stadium. His swinging strike rate in 30 innings last year was a healthy 15% and that number looks about the same so far this year, which is great news. About 30 cents of value here imo.

Finding value at this price for Kris Bubic against Clarke Schmidt, who is coming off the IL for his first start of the year. The Yankees have won the first two games of this series and despite the lack of run production from the Royals so far this year, I do believe their offense is due for some positive regression. Kris Bubic has been stellar and the Yankees have struggled against lefties not named Nestor Cortes or Bailey Falter.

Draftkings has this (-105): I think the number should be at 15.5 at best here. This will be Spencer Strider's first MLB start in over a year and he's thrown 75 and 90 pitches in his two most recent rehab outings, getting through 5.1 innings in each. The Braves have an off day tomorrow and the bullpen has been used sparingly in this series, so there doesn't seem a need to push Strider to the limit in this one. *Mentioned on Early Edge this morning

The White Sox have picked up where they left off last year with struggling to hit left handed pitching. Already with a near 30% strikeout rate when facing southpaws, they allowed Garrett Crochet to strike out 11 batters in his start this past weekend, and Sean Newcomb racked up six punch outs in just four innings in that series too. Springs is sporting a swinging strike rate above 13% and has one of the lowest zone contact rates on the board today. He struck out nine batters vs the Mariners before only tabbing three and four K's against two of the toughest teams to whiff, the Cubs and Padres. I'm betting he gets back on track with a good start for some strikeouts.

Antonio Senzatela is a familiar foe to this Dodgers lineup, most recently pitching against them twice at the end of last season. In each of those starts, Senzatela was held under 80 pitches and allowed five and six hits respectively. In three starts this year, he's not allowed less than eight hits, but has finished the 5th inning just once. He's the type of pitcher who can pitch around hits and trouble on the bases, but he also get hit hard a ton and throws the fastball more than half the time. After a disappointing couple of days for the Dodgers facing the Cubs, I'm backing LA to swing early and often against Senzatela. The line should be -110 at least in my opinion.

Despite only coming away with one hit last night, Shohei Ohtani smashed a ground ball at 105 mph, and hit another ball to the right field wall for a fly out. Last time Colin Rea faced the Dodgers was back in August, when Ohtani jumped on the first pitch of the game hitting it at an exit velocity of 105 mph, but came away with a fly out. Rea was not as lucky in his next at bat, as Ohtani launched a ball into the second deck in right field at 110 mph. I'll look for Ohtani to take advantage of a mistake pitch from Rea to help the Dodgers win the series tonight.

The Nationals have won three in a row and Kyle Finnegan has picked up the save in each of those games. I find it very hard to believe he would work a 4th day in a row, which is a big loss for a Nats bullpen that's struggled so far with an ERA over six. The Dodgers bullpen should be fully rested and the offense nearly came back last night after being down 6-2 in the 8th inning, so I think the bats click in this one. Two young and unproven starting pitchers, lots of variance; I'll back the Dodgers to use all nine of their at bats to put a bunch of runs on the board and win by at least two.

The first start of his MLB career came in his home country of Japan and understandably, there were some nerves for Roki Sasaki. He walked five batters in three innings (one hit) while striking out three and throwing just 56 pitches. Sasaki's fastball also averaged 98 mph, touching 100 at times, so the velocity showed he's healthy. Now back in LA for his 2nd start, and I'm backing Sasaki at this price near even money for a 5th strikeout. Also, Gleyber Torres felt "sore" last night and was removed from the game. If he can't go, this lineup will be missing one of only three batters that had a strikeout rate below 22% last season.

I almost want to bet against every starter with a 6.5 K line, as seven strikeouts in your first start of the year is a big task for anyone. Ryan Pepiot is in that group and he was thrust into this spot as Opening Day starter just a few days ago, after Shane McClanahan was unfortunately injured. Pepiot said he got up to 90 pitches this spring, with 72 pitches (four innings) being his in-game max, so he should be rather prepared for the workload, but it's tough to be confident anyone gets deep into their first official start. Not a bad strikeout matchup but I think this should be at 5.5 or at least the odds shaded to the under. (1/2 unit)

Betting on pitchers is such a crapshoot early in the year, but Clay Holmes looks to be in line to receive an adequate starter's workload, after building up to 88 pitches in his final spring start. He also threw 76 and 67 pitches in two starts prior and he's been performing extremely well this spring. In his most recent start, Holmes generated 15 whiffs on 37 swings and struck out eight - albeit many minor leaguers. He's featuring a new changeup that’s been downright filthy and I don’t think the books have a great idea of where to put this line with Holmes' starter role, that new changeup, and a retooled Astros lineup. Rather play the over 4.5 than over 3.5 Ks.

Last night I had Dodgers ML as this Yankees team looked lifeless for the first three games, and even against a bullpen game, I felt the Dodgers humming offense would be a major difference maker. Despite jumping out to an early lead, LA allowed the Yankees lineup to finally get some mojo back and string hits together, scoring 11 runs. Tonight though, things will not be as easy for the New York bats, as the Dodgers have all of their top bullpen pieces available and ready to be deployed earlier than usual to cut the game short. Gerrit Cole also doesn't have much room for error, especially after the Yankees bullpen was taxed the last few days. +125 is value again so play it!

Near -150 for the Yankees moneyline tonight, after how bad they have looked in the first three games, is certainly interesting... Luis Gil would likely never be this big of a favorite against this lineup if not for a bullpen game on the other side, but the Dodgers offense has been humming and I have to take the +125 at this point. Credit to my colleague Matt Snyder, who already mentioned in his pick that the team who starts out 3-0 is 31-9 in this spot, so the numbers say to take the plus odds here as well. If the Yankees win in "dead cat bounce" fashion, I still would be very shocked to see this series make it's way back to LA. 0.5u play.

Jose Trevino should be behind the plate for the Yankees tonight as Aaron Boone said last night that Austin Wells would likely get a day off today. Trevino was an astounding 13 for 70 this year when attempting to throw runners out, and with Cleveland in a 2-0 hole here, I think their offense gets scrappy and they do whatever they need to do to get a win. The Guardians ranked 2nd in the AL this year for stolen bases and Jose Ramirez has one again put himself in the MVP discussion due to his power/speed combo. When runners are on base tonight, they should ALL be looking to steal against Trevino, but Jose Ramirez at 3-1 is the main guy I'm backing!

Colder weather and winds blowing in should make scoring tougher and we'll need a 9th run to beat us. The Dodgers play their first game on the east coast in a month and enjoyed nice weather in California for their playoff games thus far, so a 50 degree night in the Big Apple is a switch up. Walker Buehler has been tabbed as an awful pitcher and despite giving up lots of hard contact in his last start, all six of his runs were allowed in the same inning, where errors and bad defensive plays burned him. Luis Severino had a 2.96 ERA at Citi Field this year and both bullpens should have all of their top guys available. At 8 I'll take the under.

We saw Michael King absolutely crush the Braves lineup last night, racking up 12 strikeouts through seven masterful innings. Now Joe Musgrove takes the ball, looking to send his hometown team to the divisional round of the playoffs. Musgrove has looked stellar since returning from the IL in August, pitching to a 2.15 ERA in 50+ innings, with 57 strikeouts in that time. His underlying metrics back up his strong performances, with a swinging strike rate of 12.5% and a Stuff+ rating of 134 since returning from injury! Musgrove has hit the over in seven of his last eight starts so I'll take a stab here at the over.