This would normally be a perfect spot to fade the Titans coming off their upset of the Dolphins, and Tennessee likely would have entered this game as an underdog if Houston was healthy ... but it's not. Out are C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins in addition to Tank Dell with Case Keenum now at QB. The Titans are 4-2 straight up and ATS at home this season. As long as Will Levis play s a bit smarter, Tennessee could walk away with this.

DeAndre Hopkins is having an excellent season despite playing in a run first offense that has had inconsistent QB play. Hopkins underlying metrics are still exceptional and while Will Levis has been up and down, he has locked on to the Hopkins as his primary target. Hopkins is drawing a high concentration of targets deep down the field, which is nice because he doesn't require an uptick in volume to have a potential ceiling game. Look for Hopkins to have a big day against his old team.

This line feels a little trappy considering the likely built-in sentiment for the Titans following their dramatic comeback win Monday night. Even so, with CJ Stroud and pretty much all of their explosive playmakers sidelined, it's difficult to envision limited backup Davis Mills leading the Texans to a win in a tough road environment.

The Texans are down their QB and top two receivers this week, and de facto No. 1 receiver Noah Brown has zero catches on seven targets in his last two games. That sets up Dalton Schultz to see an increase on the 5-6 targets he averages in his return from injury. The Titans are typically stingy against opposing tight ends, but that's because teams can easily move the ball throwing to wide receivers. With Schultz as Case Keenum's primary weapon, he could get to four receptions by halftime.

I'm so shocked this line is still Tennessee-3 with C.J. Stroud out for Houston. Stroud has been the sole reason Houston as been so competitive. The dropoff to Case Keenum or Davis Mills is at least four points. The Titans have been a solid home team, 4-1 straight up and against the spread. Lay the three ASAP, this line is going up on Sunday.

The Texans are in a tough spot with so many of their star players out for this game. After losing Tank Dell two weeks ago, they may now be without Nico Collins (questionable) and they are definitely without rookie standout CJ Stroud. With Case Keenum trying to operate with an inefficient running game and the second line of wide receivers, it could be a long day for the Texans. The Titans are always a tough team to play and now are working off the momentum of last week's win in Miami. This line should be at least -4.

He's healthy and effective and over this total in three straight games and capable of a 20-carry load. I don't see that changing in a divisional game. He's owned the Texans throughout his career and even if this version has been better against the run, it looks like a young D that has hit the wall. Opponents are routinely running 30 times or more vs HOU and TEN will have the same plan and Henry will be in line for 18-2 of them. Henry is over this all 5 games played at Nashville this season with a low of 18 and a high of 25. In 2 games vs HOU last year he has 32 and 23 carries.

Increasing concern about whether Houston QB C.J. Stroud will be released from concussion protocol has pushed this line above a field goal. Because he makes this team go, almost any backup would be inadequate. Davis Mills has the experience but is 5-20-1 as a starter for the Texans on bad teams. Worse for him, top WR Nico Collins (calf) has yet to practice this week. Titans RB Derrick Henry owns a remarkable stat versus Houston -- 200-plus rushing yards in four of the past five meetings. WR DeAndre Hopkins will be pumped up facing his old team.

Henry tends to play well whenever the Titans are in a competitive game and not a blowout. For example, he's crossed over 67 rush yards in 7 of 10 games this year when the Titans have either won or lost by one score. He's also gone over this in each of four home wins this season. The Texans run defense has been great for much of the year, but they'll play this week without rookie edge Will Anderson and linebacker Blake Cashman, two of their highest-graded run stoppers per Pro Football Focus. That just makes the matchup easier for Henry, as will a muted Texans offense that's not expected to have C.J. Stroud and therefore won't be able to move the ball much.

Spears has elite wiggle and can make something out of nothing and he and Will Levis finally seem to have found their way together. Caught 6 of 8 targets Monday night for 89 yards and the Texans linebackers will have their hands filled with him. Should see enough duty on third down to go way over this and I will play 25+ in alt markets and above. Texans are 29th in the NFL allowing 84% completions on passes to RBs. He has 14 targets the last two weeks. I expect a long or two of 10+ yards

D Hop vs the Texans. First time as a divisional game. Sign me up. Will Levis is airing it out more and Hopkins is over 75 yards in each of the last two games. And some of that damage was done on the road; Levis is much more comfortable at home, as is the case with rookie passers. Titans are brimming with confidence after upset of Dolphins and Texans are 30th against the pass and fading. He has 12 targets in each of the last two games and I have no doubt he gets at least that many looks in this game.

He's done this with regularity against the Texans, he is in good form and has a streak of 3 straight games going with 2 rushing TDs. Texans allow a ton of rushing TDs (27th in NFL), and Mike Vrabel will look to push them around at home where the Titans really flex their muscles. Seems very in character for this coach to try to make this happen for a fourth straight game.

Derrick Henry has had their number with 4 games of over 200 yards and 2 TDs. He has scored 2 TDs in 3 straight games. The Texans run D is stout but they have allowed 15 rushing TDs, 27th in the NFL. They have allowed at least one rushing TD in six straight games (7 allowed in that span), and no one is poaching short-yardage carries from this back. And, yeah, I'm going to sprinkle on the two TD prop.

Guess I waited about 30 minutes too long to get Titans -2.5, which probably is gone now that CJ Stroud missed another practice today in the protocol. No. 1 receiver Nico Collins hasn't practiced with a calf problem. Very unlikely either plays with several other guys also iffy on offense (plus stud rookie pass-rusher Will Anderson). This is not a great spot for the Titans on a short week and off a miracle win, but we have to fade Davis Mills on the road.

We'd prefer the Titans to be underdogs here because Mike Vrabel as a home dog is a great bet. But it's looking more and more like rookie quarterback sensation C.J. Stroud is unlikely to play for the Texans in this spot, which would mean Davis Mills starting for Houston. That's not great for the Texans, especially with Tank Dell out and Nico Collins/Robert Woods/Dalton Schultz and Noah Brown all on the injury report this week. Tennessee isn't some juggernaut but Derrick Henry late in the year against division rivals is a problem for defenses and Will Levis/DeAndre Hopkins are kind of slanging it around lately. I like the Titans to pick up another win this week.

The Titans are coming off a massive upset win in primetime, which makes them a team I'd typically be looking to fade. But they'll benefit from not playing the actual Texans here, with Tank Dell out, Nico Collins unlikely to play and C.J. Stroud in concussion protocol. The Texans offense looked like a shell of itself even before Stroud's exit last week, and this should be a game a healthier Titans team can win by at least a field goal. I'm taking it now before we get injury updates from Houston as it's already starting to trend toward the key number of 3.