Two teams trending in the right direction, one with an elite defense starting a rookie quarterback in his first career road game, the other with an improving defense starting a veteran at home. This game is all about ball protection. The Broncos are surging with takeaways, while the Browns can’t help but cough it up. Cleveland has one of the worst offenses in the league and now has Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who has yet to throw a touchdown pass, at Mile High? Russell Wilson is hardly my favorite QB to back, but his mobility brings a key element. The Browns are only allowing 10.2 points per game at home but a whopping 29.8 per game on the road this season.

Denver has built a four-game outright win streak in less than dazzling fashion and bumps into the league's foremost defense. Yet Cleveland QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson is a limited passer dealing with high altitude in his initial road start. Counterpart Russell Wilson is not his former self but sports the NFL's best TD/interception ratio. Avoiding turnovers is paramount against the Browns' D. Wilson need only get Denver to 20 points for a probable cover.

The Broncos have made an impressive turnaround since their embarrassing 70-20 loss to the Dolphins. But their four-game win streak includes three wins by a total of 5 points. Their high-wire act should come to an end against a battle-tested Browns club that has won five of six.

Maybe Dorian Thompson-Robinson becomes a good player, although it almost doesn't matter for Cleveland because it is stuck with Deshaun Watson for at least a few more years. Have to take Russell Wilson at home over DTR. Denver's defense is playing just as well as the Browns' D is.

We've seen the Broncos be able to withstand early setbacks and sustain drives when necessary during this turnaround. And honestly, it's because of the steady hand of Russell Wilson. Between his ability to make the throws necessary, and their ability to run the ball, it gives them just enough of an edge to knock off a very game Browns opponent.

The Broncos have won four straight games to get back into contention for a playoff spot. We all new the Sean Payton would make a difference, it just took him a couple of weeks to get his team playing solid football. The Broncos allowed 70 points to the Dolphins and over 700 yards. Of their last five games the Broncos median rush yards allowed is 137 (season average 160) and median pass yards allowed is 210 (season average 240. With Deshaun Watson out for the year Dorian Thompson-Robinson is the new starter. DTR is averaging 3.7 yards per pass, zero touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Seattle has a big advantage with Russell Wilson over DTR.

Denver is hot and finding ways to win games, four in a row, for the best Broncos streak since the outset of 2016. Russell Wilson continues to make plays in the clutch and the defense has become opportunistic, making leaps-and-bounds improvement since getting shellacked at Miami in last September. Meanwhile the Cleveland offense minus Deshaun Watson is doomed to labor (especially if DTR continues to take snaps), putting enormous pressure on Myles Garrett and the defense. This defensive war might not get to 38 points. Play Browns-Broncos Under

Denver is hot and finding ways to win games, four in a row, for the best Broncos streak since the outset of 2016. Russell Wilson continues to make plays in the clutch and the defense has become opportunistic, making leaps-and-bounds improvement since getting shellacked at Miami in last September. Meanwhile the Cleveland offense minus Deshaun Watson is doomed to labor (especially if DTR continues to take snaps), putting enormous pressure on Myles Garrett and the defense. Play Broncos

The Broncos have won four straight after a 1-5 start mainly because of turnovers. Denver has gotten 10 more of them than their opponents in their last three games, but that's a stat that tends to depend on luck and isn't sustainable. The Browns bring the NFL's No. 1 'D' to Denver and will look to mostly run on a Broncos defense that still can't stop it. Of Denver's five wins, four have been by three points or less, and we're getting points here. Grab them.

We know both gameplans are going to be conservative and we know both defenses are somewhere between good and great. That should lend itself to DTR and Russel Wilson playing not to lose and letting the defenses dominate.

You can see what I think about this game all over this page. Browns will be hunting Russell Wilson and Sean Payton will be playing it safe and Perine will be on the field in critical moments. Catches pretty much everything thrown to him and often gets 3 looks in one two-minute drill. Perine is over this in three of the last 4 and had 7 catches last week and I see this being a close and low scoring game with Perine ready to pass pro and release into a route vs Myles Garrett and Co. Early numbers were skewed low by blowout losses. I see his role growing down the stretch.

The Browns pass rush is dominant and Perine is by far the back Sean Payton prefers in pass protection. He gets fed at the end of halves and end of games - any hurry up or 2-minute situations for the Broncos - and Russell Wilson seems to love throwing to him as a safety valve in critical moments, He could top this on one drive, honestly, He's over this in five of the last 7 and against this opponent I see his presence being even more critical. He's had a reception of 10 yards or more in 7 straight and 15 or more in five of the last six. Has caught 32 of 36 targets and a threat to make people miss in open field.

Njoku had a whopping FIFTEEN targets last week, catching seven passes for 56 yards from Cleveland rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Eight tight ends have surpassed 40 yards against Denver including both T.J. Hockenson and Josh Oliver last week. Look for Njoku to once again be a key component of Cleveland's offense on Sunday.

The Browns don't win unless Hopkins kicks a GW FG and Kevin Stefanski believes in him bigtime. And with a rookie QB who is not very good, and against a limited Broncos offense on the other side, Stefanski will take 3 when it's there. And the ball flies at Mile High. Hopkins is tied for 1st in FGA, he has attempted 13 in 4 road games. He's attempted at least 2 in 6 in a row. Browns have 3 more FGM than any team in the NFL. DEN allow just 8 Off TD last 5 games. DTR ain't finishing drives in the endzone.

Road grading the Browns D is the only way to go. Sean Payton won't let Myles Garrett ruin his 5-game win streak. The Steelers and the Raves just got it going on the ground and Browns are just 15th vs the rush. He will break a few 8-10 yard runs and if he does carry 20 times, again, he's getting to 60 yards. Jump on his rushing attempts and Perrine receptions when they populate. Volume, volume, volume to RBs.

Browns offense - run game in particular - woeful again Sun and that costs you on the road. DTR is gonna turn the ball over, and DEN has NFL best 14 takeaways during its 5-game win streak. DEN has allowed just 8 offensive TDs in that span as well (3rd best). Browns on the road last 4 games allowed: 31, 24, 38, 26. Their run D ain't great nor is their RZ D (24th). Russ won't cook but he won't turn it over and he will win late.. Stefanski should let DTR throw 40 times again and see how that goes. DEN win 4 in row at home; played one road game since Oct. 12; no travel. Browns tackle injuries will loom at Mile High.

The Broncos four-game win streak makes them 5-5 and puts them back into the playoff conversation and I’m fairly certain the public is going to bet them up despite the Browns proving weekly they have the No. 1 defense. Denver’s defense is last allowing 400 ypg, but the turnaround isn’t just Sean Payton and Russell Wilson, it’s also Vance Joseph’s massive defensive turnaround. This defense against a rookie QB in his first career road start. Broncos to win, money-line.

The Browns are now 7-3 after gutting out a win over the Steelers, but the offense didn't look great despite Pittsburgh's defense being beatable this year. They had just 3.5 yards per play with a long play of 18 yards, and Denver's improving defense can have success in this matchup. They've generated 12 turnovers in their last three games, and rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson should give them opportunities in his first road start. Cleveland allows about 10 points per game at home but nearly 30 on the road, and they're vulnerable on the ground. I have this line at 4.5 and even there I'd consider Denver.