Cincinnati isn't a very good defensive team but DTR has never gone over this number in is NFL career nor come that close really. We'd imagine a pretty conservative gameplan for the inexperienced DTR. Our model has him at 191.5 yards passing. With his running style, it's also quite possible he gets hurt.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson, a former fifth-round pick, was never envisioned as a starting QB. Yet here he is, replacing the erratic Jameis Winston. With RB Nick Chubb injured yet again, Thompson-Robinson will carry a burden too large for him to handle. The 20-point mark seems beyond reach. Cleveland's defense could throw a wrench in the Bengals' gears if Myles Garrett remains inspired. He induces nightmares in QB Joe Burrow, who has been dragged down nine times by the peerless pass rusher.

Rushing is about the only upside DTR brings to the table in place of turnover-prone veteran Jameis Winston. If he declines risky throws in favor of using his legs, this should be a modest hurdle to clear.

The Browns will start Dorian Thompson-Robinson at QB this week, who has never thrown over this passing yards mark in any of his starts/appearances. Robinson’s career high is 165 yards (and it took a ton of volume, going 24/43). DTR will be without WR Cedrick Tillman, LT Jedrick Willis, and TE David Njoku is ‘questionable’ to play with a hamstring issue. Although the defense has been Cincy’s Achilles heel this season, the Bengals are playing hard in hopes of winning out and salvaging an unlikely shot at the playoffs. I’m going to make DTR prove to me that he can throw for 200 yards against an NFL team.

The Browns have had enough of Jameis Winston, and with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center, I like the potential for Ford to beat expectations as a receiver. He had 18 targets in three DTR starts last year while splitting time with Kareem Hunt, and he should be leaned on much more in this situation. Ford topped this number in four of his last five starts even with Nick Chubb on the field, and he easily beat it in three of his four September starts. The Bengals defense shouldn't pose a problem for Ford hitting this Over.

With new life thanks to the Broncos loss, the Bengals have a chance to make a run toward the postseason if they win out and get help. We know their offense can score, but the difference in this game will be their ability to get after a young QB in Dorian Thompson Robinson for the Browns.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson has averaged 2.9 yards per attempt in limited action this season. Last year, in eight games, he wasn't much better at 3.9 yards per attempt. Now he goes on the road to face an energized Bengals team that still has an outside shot at the playoffs. In the first matchup with Cincinnati this season, Thompson-Robinson entered for an injured Deshaun Watson and mustered 82 passing yards on 24 attempts. This number is available at BetRivers.

Let's not overthink this. The forecast doesnt look terrible. The Browns are cooked. Joe Burrow is chasing a passing triple crown and he's thrown 3 or more TD passes in 6 straight games. He's hit this mark in 3 of 4 divisional games already this season. Browns have had major breakdowns defending deep balls (especially on the road, even dating back to last year when the D was much better overall). I don't see anything changes in how the Bengals try to score points and move the ball.

The Bengals won by a TD in the first meeting and every win they have registered this season is by 7+ points. It’s what they do. Of course they don’t win enough but the Browns are struggling on both sides of the ball Jameis Winston has hit the wall. Even the horrible Bengals D should be able to limit the bleeding. Bengals 7-3 ATS in last 10 at home to Browns and 15-6 ATS in the last 21 games in this series overall. Bengals have scored at least 27 in 6 straight games and 34 or more in 4 of them. Kevin Stefanki does not cover on the road in the division; 3-10 ATS, failing to cover by 5.85/game. Browns QB situation a big issue.