The stakes are high for the Falcons and Kirk Cousins is trying to keep his job. Atlanta is sufficient weapons on offense and the Raiders have been in transition again, trying to work through QB injuries and then losing Maxx Crosby for the season midweek. Raiders have gone 7 straight games without leading after the 1st quarter and have led 3 times after 15 mins all season. They have scored a total of 3 1st quarter points in the last 4 weeks. Falcons have trailed after 1 in just 2 of last 8 games and have a 1st quarter TD in 8 of the last 11 games. Kicker, when he is right, can kill it from distance.

The Falcons need a win to keep their postseason hopes alive, and the Raiders are already looking ahead to the offseason. Las Vegas will be without its top player (Maxx Crosby) and Atlanta simply has more to play for. I really like this spot for the Falcons to turn things around.

The Falcons have been struggling and Kirk Cousins' primetime struggles have been well-documented. That said, a game against the Raiders, who allow 27.8 points per game, could be just what the doctor ordered for Atlanta -- especially with no Maxx Crosby to deal with. I expect 28+ points for the Falcons here.

Cousins has played poorly in four straight primetime games, and could realistically be playing for his job tonight. The Raiders will be without All-Pro DE Maxx Crosby, so Cousins should have plenty of time to find his pass catchers. My DFS model projected 250+ yards for Cousins on MNF.

The 2-11 Raiders will start Desmond Ridder tonight. As +6 underdogs, they may be trailing down multiple scores in this game, against a sliding Falcons team that is desperate to get right. I believe Atlanta will be playing in a positive game script, allowing Falcons RB2 Tyler Allgeier to get his touches. A heavy workload for Bijan Robinson should be expected, but Allgeier has been a strong complimentary back who runs hard downhill. Allgeier has gotten 8+ carries in 4 of his last 6 games, and should see similar or increased volume if Atlanta is up and in control.

Tre Tucker’s receiving yards line is set at a low total of 22.5, perhaps due to his weak performance last week going for just 2 receptions and 7 yards. However, Tucker has cleared this line in 5 of his last 7 games and has explosive play potential. The Raiders will start Desmond Ridder at QB. Although Ridder & Tucker haven’t connected on much thus far, Ridder has already targeted Tucker 12 times in the limited action he’s seen. I would consider laddering this up to 50+ rec yards at +350!

There is a strong chance fellow tight end Michael Mayer steals some targets from Bowers, but quarterback Desmond Ridder would be wise to target his rookie tight end early and often if he wants to beat his former team on Monday night. Prior to last week, Bowers had been targeted 40 times in three games. I expect that trend to continue on MNF, with the OROY candidate finishing with 75+ yards.

Michael Mayer isn't a high volume receiver. He's only finished with more than 11 receiving yards in a game once all season and before last week, he hadn't caught more than 2 balls in a single game. All of that changes with Desmond Ridder under center and the expectation we could see a lot more two tight end sets tonight. Is he the key to winning a fantasy playoff match-up? Absolutely not but Since Week 9, Atlanta has allowed the fourth-most yards per attempt, the second-most passing touchdowns, the eighth-most passing yards per game, and the second-highest CPOE. These secondary weapons go boom or bust but working in a negative game script we're all about the boom here.

Michael Mayer was an early second-round pick in 2023 out of Notre Dame, so he has a strong pedigree. He missed several weeks this season due to personal issues. But now he's back and coming off his best game of the season. When the Raiders drafted Brock Bowers, they envisioned playing a lot of two tight-end sets. And last week, they ran 12 personnel two-thirds of the time. Mayer set season highs in snaps and routes run and finished with seven catches for 68 yards. Look for Mayer to notch at least 20 receiving yards Monday.

Bijan Robinson has gotten 19-plus carries in four of his past five games, the exception coming at Denver when Atlanta got blown out 38-6. This projects as a neutral or positive game script. On the road this season, Atlanta has run the ball a healthy amount, 46.8 percent of the time. Look for the Falcons to protect Kirk Cousins by using a heavy dose of Robinson.

The Falcons have lost four straight games and quarterback Kirk Cousins has thrown eight interceptions and no touchdowns during the span. He's had six interceptions in his last two games. The Falcons are still the number two passing game in the NFL at 250 yards per game. Something's got to give in this game because the Raiders only have eight takeaways on the season and Kirk Cousins rolls into town. The Raiders are minus-17 in turnover margin with 25 turnovers. That is something that cannot be excused as they’ve lost nine straight games. The Falcons are minus-9 in turnover margin. Over is the play.

Caesar’s. Despite the Falcons 2-5 slide over their last seven games, Bijan Robinson has cleared this line in five of those contests. With Kirk Cousins noticeably struggling, the Falcons have shifted to more of a run-heavy approach. Over the same seven-game stretch, Atlanta has the sixth highest run play % in neutral gamescripts (per Roto Viz). Against the Raiders tonight, I like the chances of this game staying at least neutral for the Falcons (the Raiders’ opponents have only run 33 plays when down at least 7 points - the fewest in the NFL).

In the Falcons' four-game skid, Kirk Cousins has thrown zero touchdowns and eight interceptions. Atlanta has mustered fewer than 15 points per game in that span. Now Cousins faces a downtrodden Raiders team, but one that can pressure QBs and make them uncomfortable. Regardless of which quarterback starts for Vegas, I like the Raiders as home dogs to keep this close.

I tend to think Cousins can snap his epic streak without a passing TD against this failing defense. But I feel far more confident that he will throw for 250 or more yards. The Raiders have allowed at least 242 in 6 straight games and Cousins has been very good on MNF the last 5 times he's been in that spot and this dome should suit him well. If he's going to manage to keep this starting gig, it's not going to be from handing the ball off. Cousins is over this in 4 of his last 6 games and threw for over 300 yards last week. For all of his struggles he is over this in 6 of his last 10 games.

Desmond Ridder appears set to face his former team on Monday night, and that should be great news for the Under. In 11 starts where he played all the snaps for the Falcons last year, the game topped 40 points just twice with final scores of 20-6, 23-7, 13-8 and 9-7. If a less than 100% Aidan O'Connell goes, I still think it's an issue for the Vegas offense. On the other side, Kirk Cousins hasn't looked right the last few weeks, with the coach having to say he's sticking with him as starter, and he could struggle if the Raiders pass rush is in his kitchen all day. Even a good Cousins day could lead to a 30-13 type of cash here.