Have to say I don't get why Under 0.5 picks is priced so great on Tua as he has only been picked off four times all season and once in the past seven. I might worry about Tagovailoa outdoors in the cold, but that's not the case in Houston. The Texans are second in the NFL in picks with 16 but I still think this price is a gift.

The Dolphins have played well on their desperate mission to salvage their season. But this rates as a solid get-right spot for a Houston club that can create divisional separation with a win.

Two of Dalton Schultz's best games have come in the past four weeks. Before the bye, he caught five of seven balls for 61 yards and a score against Jacksonville. Now his backup, Cade Stover, is out due to an emergency appendectomy. Schultz has cleared this prop total in three of his last four starts. The Dolphins have allowed 8.54 targets to opposing tight ends -- tied with Denver for most in the NFL.

Getting over 25 completions isn't anything new for Tagovailoa, he's had 28-plus completions in each of his past four games. It'll help that he'll face a Texans pass defense that's typically zone heavy, complete with an 81.8% zone rate in three of its past four games. And while the Texans don't get pressure from their pass rush at a high rate, they are top-three in the league in sack rate (8.9%) and sacks (42). Especially with Terron Armstead not expected at left tackle, the hunch is that Tagovailoa will have to get the ball out quickly, and zone coverage will facilitate short completions. That's just what Tagovailoa does, and he should do a lot of it.

Joe Mixon has been very good in his debut season with the Texans. Mixon has combined solid efficiency with elite usage and as a result is on pace to have the best season of his career. While Mixon has certainly been impressive, I do expect him to struggle against an underrated Dolphins run defense, that has performed particularly well recently. On the season Miami is 11th in EPA allowed per rush, 8th in Success Rate, and 5th in Defensive Run Grade, however they struggled to start the year and have really been good in the second half of the season. Miami's secondary has been a different story and has been very vulnerable, which I expect Houston OC Bobby Slowik to lean into.

The Dolphins are 4-1 in their last five games as they push for a playoff spot, but I don't think this is a great matchup for their offense. The run game has yet to get going, ranking 30th in yards per rush, while the Texans defense is second in net yards per pass attempt and given up 300 net passing yards just once all year (in the blowout win over Dallas). The Dolphins defense has taken a step back over the last two weeks, so C.J. Stroud and Co. should have success with two weeks to prepare. With games against the Chiefs and Ravens ahead, Houston should treat this as a must-win.

The Texans are pretty good defending TEs but have allowed 5 TDs to them, which is a decent number. Smith is getting a ton of looks in the redzone and I prefer his value here to Tyreek Hill, who is the other pass catcher showing up a lot in the RZ. Smith has a 4 TDs since Week 11. He's playing some of the best football of his career and thriving in this offense. Smith and Hill are tied for 7th in the NFL in RZ targets since Week 10. And he score outside the RZ as well. Tua is clearly looking for him in certain key spots.

The Dolphins run game has been suspect all season and they have some OL issues. That will show up here against a run D that is 4th in EPA and 5th in success rate. Which means even more screens that normal; and no one throws more at or behind the LOS than Tua. They need Achane to supplement the run game more than usual. He is over this in 4 of the last 7 games and it's not uncommon for him to crack 50+. We loved that alt number last week (he finished with 45) and are playing it again this week. He will get ample targets. Achane averaged 36 receiving yards per game.

I looked at this line last night and it was in the 73.5 range at most books and it has now come crashing down to this 66.5 number at BetMGM. We're starting to see Tyreek get back to his normal allotment of targets and efficiency and that should not change on an indoor track where a lot of points are expected. Look for Tyreek to be busy in all four quarters of the game in a must win for the Dolphins.

Dolphins games average 36.7 points on the road. They are 5-1 to the under going under on average by 8.3 points. Texans are 4-1-1 to the under at home. Tua is under in 6 of his last 8 games vs winning teams. CJ Stroud is 7-3 to the under as a home favorite, going under 7 of the last 8 games. Houston is 5-2-1 to the under outside the AFC South and Miami is 5-3 to the under outside the AFC East. Both offenses are prone to epic cold streaks. Both staffs know one another inside out and run the same systems. Texans have fewest second half offensive TDs in the NFL.