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Sun, Dec 156:00 pm UTCNRG Stadium
Track OnCBS Sports
Miami
Dolphins
MIA
Last 5 ATS
W/L8-9
ATS7-10
O/U8-9-0
FINAL SCORE
12
-
20
Houston
Texans
HOU
Last 5 ATS
W/L10-7
ATS7-10
O/U6-11-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
Last 5 ATS
8-9
Win /Loss
10-7
7-10
Spread
7-10
8-9-0
Over / Under
6-11-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER

Simulation Picks

SPREAD
MIA @ HOU
Subscribers Only

Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

MONEYLINE
MIA @ HOU
Subscribers Only

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OVER / UNDER
MIA @ HOU
Subscribers Only

Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

62%
PUBLIC
38%
MONEY
30%
PUBLIC
70%
MONEY
Over73%
PUBLIC
Under27%
Over
MONEY
Under

Understanding Public and Money

Think of 'Public' as the percentage of people betting on each side and 'Money' as how much money is being bet. When there's a big difference between the 'Public' and 'Money' data, it usually means that the more serious bettors (referred to as 'Sharp Money') are favoring a particular side.

Expert Picks

Avatar
Total Passing InterceptionsTua Tagovailoa Under 0.5 Total Passing Interceptions +120
LOSS
Unit0.5
+468
46-29 in Last 75 NFL Player Props Picks
Matt's Analysis:

Have to say I don't get why Under 0.5 picks is priced so great on Tua as he has only been picked off four times all season and once in the past seven. I might worry about Tagovailoa outdoors in the cold, but that's not the case in Houston. The Texans are second in the NFL in picks with 16 but I still think this price is a gift.

Pick Made: Dec 15, 4:56 pm UTC on Sugar House
Point SpreadHouston -2.5 -115
WIN
Unit1.0
+185
3-1 in Last 4 NFL Picks
+90
2-1 in Last 3 NFL ATS Picks
+537
11-4 in Last 15 HOU ATS Picks
Josh's Analysis:

The Dolphins have played well on their desperate mission to salvage their season. But this rates as a solid get-right spot for a Houston club that can create divisional separation with a win.

Pick Made: Dec 15, 4:50 pm UTC on DraftKings
Avatar
Total Receiving YardsDalton Schultz Over 30.5 Total Receiving Yards -114
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1638.5
141-101 in Last 242 NFL Player Props Picks
Larry's Analysis:

Two of Dalton Schultz's best games have come in the past four weeks. Before the bye, he caught five of seven balls for 61 yards and a score against Jacksonville. Now his backup, Cade Stover, is out due to an emergency appendectomy. Schultz has cleared this prop total in three of his last four starts. The Dolphins have allowed 8.54 targets to opposing tight ends -- tied with Denver for most in the NFL.

Pick Made: Dec 15, 3:17 pm UTC on Sugar House
Avatar
Total Passing CompletionsTua Tagovailoa Over 24.5 Total Passing Completions -118
WIN
Unit1.0
+546
8-2 in Last 10 NFL Player Props Picks
Dave's Analysis:

Getting over 25 completions isn't anything new for Tagovailoa, he's had 28-plus completions in each of his past four games. It'll help that he'll face a Texans pass defense that's typically zone heavy, complete with an 81.8% zone rate in three of its past four games. And while the Texans don't get pressure from their pass rush at a high rate, they are top-three in the league in sack rate (8.9%) and sacks (42). Especially with Terron Armstead not expected at left tackle, the hunch is that Tagovailoa will have to get the ball out quickly, and zone coverage will facilitate short completions. That's just what Tagovailoa does, and he should do a lot of it.

Pick Made: Dec 13, 8:51 pm UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Total Rushing YardsJoe Mixon Under 81.5 Total Rushing Yards -118
WIN
Unit1.0
+125
5-4 in Last 9 NFL Player Props Picks
Alex's Analysis:

Joe Mixon has been very good in his debut season with the Texans. Mixon has combined solid efficiency with elite usage and as a result is on pace to have the best season of his career. While Mixon has certainly been impressive, I do expect him to struggle against an underrated Dolphins run defense, that has performed particularly well recently. On the season Miami is 11th in EPA allowed per rush, 8th in Success Rate, and 5th in Defensive Run Grade, however they struggled to start the year and have really been good in the second half of the season. Miami's secondary has been a different story and has been very vulnerable, which I expect Houston OC Bobby Slowik to lean into.

Pick Made: Dec 13, 6:55 pm UTC on Caesars
Point SpreadHouston -2.5 -120
WIN
Unit1.0
+987
18-8 in Last 26 NFL Picks
+587
50-40-1 in Last 91 NFL ATS Picks
+941
31-21-4 in Last 56 HOU ATS Picks
R.J.'s Analysis:

The Dolphins are 4-1 in their last five games as they push for a playoff spot, but I don't think this is a great matchup for their offense. The run game has yet to get going, ranking 30th in yards per rush, while the Texans defense is second in net yards per pass attempt and given up 300 net passing yards just once all year (in the blowout win over Dallas). The Dolphins defense has taken a step back over the last two weeks, so C.J. Stroud and Co. should have success with two weeks to prepare. With games against the Chiefs and Ravens ahead, Houston should treat this as a must-win.

Pick Made: Dec 12, 2:21 pm UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Anytime Touchdown ScorerJonnu Smith Anytime Touchdown Scorer +230
WIN
Unit1.0
+111
8-6 in Last 14 NFL Player Props Picks
Jason's Analysis:

The Texans are pretty good defending TEs but have allowed 5 TDs to them, which is a decent number. Smith is getting a ton of looks in the redzone and I prefer his value here to Tyreek Hill, who is the other pass catcher showing up a lot in the RZ. Smith has a 4 TDs since Week 11. He's playing some of the best football of his career and thriving in this offense. Smith and Hill are tied for 7th in the NFL in RZ targets since Week 10. And he score outside the RZ as well. Tua is clearly looking for him in certain key spots.

Pick Made: Dec 12, 12:52 am UTC on Caesars
Avatar
Total Receiving YardsDe'Von Achane Over 33.5 Total Receiving Yards -114
WIN
Unit1.0
+111
8-6 in Last 14 NFL Player Props Picks
Jason's Analysis:

The Dolphins run game has been suspect all season and they have some OL issues. That will show up here against a run D that is 4th in EPA and 5th in success rate. Which means even more screens that normal; and no one throws more at or behind the LOS than Tua. They need Achane to supplement the run game more than usual. He is over this in 4 of the last 7 games and it's not uncommon for him to crack 50+. We loved that alt number last week (he finished with 45) and are playing it again this week. He will get ample targets. Achane averaged 36 receiving yards per game.

Pick Made: Dec 12, 12:36 am UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Total Receiving YardsTyreek Hill Over 66.5 Total Receiving Yards -115
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1392
38-21 in Last 59 NFL Player Props Picks
Sia's Analysis:

I looked at this line last night and it was in the 73.5 range at most books and it has now come crashing down to this 66.5 number at BetMGM. We're starting to see Tyreek get back to his normal allotment of targets and efficiency and that should not change on an indoor track where a lot of points are expected. Look for Tyreek to be busy in all four quarters of the game in a must win for the Dolphins.

Pick Made: Dec 11, 7:03 pm UTC on BetMGM
Over / UnderUnder 47.5 -110
WIN
Unit1.0
+322
10-6 in Last 16 NFL O/U Picks
+486
7-2 in Last 9 MIA O/U Picks
Jason's Analysis:

Dolphins games average 36.7 points on the road. They are 5-1 to the under going under on average by 8.3 points. Texans are 4-1-1 to the under at home. Tua is under in 6 of his last 8 games vs winning teams. CJ Stroud is 7-3 to the under as a home favorite, going under 7 of the last 8 games. Houston is 5-2-1 to the under outside the AFC South and Miami is 5-3 to the under outside the AFC East. Both offenses are prone to epic cold streaks. Both staffs know one another inside out and run the same systems. Texans have fewest second half offensive TDs in the NFL.

Pick Made: Dec 09, 12:57 pm UTC on BetMGM

Team Injuries

Miami Dolphins
Monday, Jan 06, 2025
Avatar
MLB
Anthony Walker
KneeQuestionable
Avatar
WR
D'Wayne Eskridge
FingerQuestionable
Avatar
QB
Tua Tagovailoa
HipQuestionable
Houston Texans
Tuesday, Jan 14, 2025
Avatar
WR
Robert Woods
HipQuestionable
Avatar
DE
Denico Autry
KneeQuestionable
Avatar
TE
Dalton Schultz
ShoulderQuestionable
Avatar
OG
Shaq Mason
Knee - MCLOut
Avatar
LB
Azeez Al-Shaair
KneeQuestionable
Avatar
C
Juice Scruggs
AnkleQuestionable
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