With a healthy Tua at QB, the Dolphins appear to be rounding into their familiar high-powered form just in time to attempt to salvage their season. The Patriots have proven to be stubborn and sticky, but their limited offensive ceiling will be a liability in this one.

Jonnu Smith caught six balls for 101 receiving yards last week against the Raiders. Can he back that up in Week 12? I think so, as Smith has been more involved in the offense since Week 5. Coincidently, that was the same week the Dolphins played the Patriots. Smith had 62 receiving yards against the Patriots with a much inferior quarterback. Now with Tua Tagovailoa back, Smith is getting consistent target share and making the most of it. I like him to clear his receiving prop again vs. the Patriots.

Tua Tagovailoa leads the NFL in completion percentage since returning from injury and has just one pick in his past four games. The Patriots' defense has forced only one turnover in its past five games. This also has blowout potential to where Tua might not be throwing much in the late third and entire fourth quarter.

The New England Patriots struggles against the Miami Dolphins in their first matchup, is why they shifted from veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett to rookie Drake Maye. Miami has been much more dynamic on offense with Tua, but are still vulnerable ATS at home. They needed a late broken play touchdown to get their first home cover of the season against the Las Vegas Raiders. Grab the Patriots on a spread that is a couple of points to high.

Had been holding out hope that we'd get a 6.5 back but this is one of the last 7s on the board. The Fins seem to be finding their stride and Tua Tagovailoa's 77.7 completion percentage is the NFL's best since he returned from the latest concussion. He is 6-0 SU & ATS career vs. New England.

Drake Maye looks like he's progressing for the Patriots, which raises the upside of the offense, but I'm not sure it'll be enough to keep up with the Dolphins supported by one of the best home-field advantages in football. The Dolphins were able to thrive defensively in a road win over the Rams two weeks ago, while the Pats were down 15 at the start of the fourth quarter at home against the same team. New England has traditionally struggled at Miami as well, going 2-10 ATS in the last 12. They were favored in many of those games but are still 2-9 SU in the last 11. Grab the 7 while you can, as the Dolphins should win this by more than a touchdown.

Demario Douglas has become one of Drake Maye's favorite targets and Douglas has gone over his reception prop in every complete game the duo has appeared together in. Douglas and Maye are averaging 5.25 receptions/7.25 targets/57 yards together. Douglas is not a full time player, however he draws targets at a high rate, and I expect the Pats to deploy plenty of 3 WR personnel this week against a Dolphins team that are 7.5 point favorites.

The Dolphins' offense is humming again with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa, who is 6-0 SU and ATS against the Patriots. As impressive as Drake Maye has been, New England has yet to score 20 points in any road game. Miami's defense looks completely different now that defensive tackle Zach Sieler is back. He's a disruptive force in the middle who makes everyone better. The Patriots play more man coverage than any team; that would be a recipe for disaster against Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

Hill's slow start was lost on no one, but with Tua being all the way back he is showing up again in big moments and whatever was bothering him with his hand doesn't seem like such a hinderance now, either. He has a TD in the last two games he's played against the Pats with Tua as his QB. Pats have allowed 12 passing TDs in their past 6 games.

Tua has looked better each week since he came back, the Fins run game hasn't been nearly as potent as in years past, and this is a team he has owned in his career. Fish are way overdue to put on a show at home, and I like their chances here. If they are going to make a playoff push he has to take them there and this is a team with no real pass rush. Pats pass D has wilted as the season has gone on; allowed 12 passing TDs in last 6 weeks and 2+ in 4 of the last 6 games.

Miami has covered 8 straight games vs the Pats, and won 7 of 8. Their average margin of victory is 8.4 points. Tua Tagovailoa is 6-0 ATS vs NE, covering on average by 8.67 points. Miami has also covered in 6 of their last 7 at home vs NE, covering on average by 6.3 points. Miami showing new life last few weeks, while the Pats are flawed on both sides of the ball. Miami is great at punching down and the defense has been solid. NE really struggles to score points. Fins averaging 28 PPG last 4 weeks.