An interesting flexed Sunday Night Football game that should feature plenty of scoring. Even though the Colts will clearly be better with Joe Flacco at the helm, his limited mobility will be tested by Brian Flores’ defense. Plus, to this point, Indianapolis’ only wins this season have come against offensively challenged teams. The Vikings secondary leaves a lot to be desired, but the run defense is solid, and they get off the field with regularity. Minnesota has a legitimate home-field advantage and should light it up with Justin Jefferson going off. Adding T.J. Hockenson to the mix should only further spread the field making Aaron Jones and Jordan Addison even more effective. This may well be a statement game for Minnesota coming off consecutive losses.

With Blake Cashman out again, Ivan Pace Jr. will wear the green dot and likely play 100 percent of the snaps. Minnesota plays a lot of three-safety sets, leaving Pace as the only linebacker. With Cashman out the past two games, Pace has recorded 10 and 13 tackles. Back Pace to get at least nine combined stops Sunday night.

I expect the Colts to play better with Joe Flacco at quarterback, and the Vikings are one of the better offensive teams in the NFL. This game will be played indoors, so weather won't factor into things. I expect the first half point total here to push 30 points.

Rolling with another Primetime Under. I am not sure that the Colts offense will succeed against Minnesota's defensive scheme. Although the Vikings gave up 30+ points in consecutive weeks, the Lions and Rams offensive weapons present a much more dangerous attack than Indy's. Don't forget, Minnesota held the 49ers to 17 points in Week 2, and the Texans to 7 points in Week 3. They are playing this game on extended rest, and I expect their defense to show back up. The public betting action is heavy on the Over, but the total has barely budged from its opening line of 46.5. It takes two to tango for an over, and I don't see the Colts putting up their share.

With Joe Flacco under center, the Colts may look to check down to RB Jonathan Taylor more often. Flacco is a stationary QB, and he will be under duress against the Vikings aggressive blitz attack. Taylor has cleared this low receiving yards total in 3 of the last 4 weeks. He may only need 1-2 targets to hit this prop.

We've got the Colts coming into Minnesota winning four of their last six games and covering all six of the games and they get a boost from the passing game with Joe Flacco instead of Anthony Richardson. The Colts still got the job done each week despite the quarterback. The Vikings have lost two in a row, their first two losses of the season. The area I think is going to be a problem for the Vikings is the pass defense which ranks 30th in the NFL allowing 263 yards per game. Joe Flacco has seven touchdowns and only one interception in three games this season. I think this will be a close game that’ll come down to the last kick. Colts cover.

Colts rookie QB Anthony Richardson has been benched for the veteran; a move that many had been calling for. Flacco certainly has had more success running Indy's offense, but I'm ready to sell on him against a formidable defense. Flacco is playing behind an injured offensive line, and he has zero mobility. That could be a major issue against Vikings DC Brian Flores, who is known for his exotic blitz schemes. On the other side of the ball, Indy's zone-heavy defense may be ill-suited to deal with these Vikings receivers. This spread smells fishy to me. The 7-1 ATS Colts are catching the dead number of +5 against a team coming off consecutive losses... Sounds like a big Vikings bounce back game to me.

I love Josh Downs in every market this week. He has an excellent matchup in the slot vs. the Vikings Sunday night. His touchdown equity is much improved with Joe Flacco at quarterback.

Joe Flacco takes the reins of the Colts offense for this game, and though he's perceived to be a big upgrade, this might be a tough matchup. With his left tackle out, Flacco may be a sitting duck for an aggressive Minnesota pass rush. His great stats on the season also largely came in a game where Pittsburgh prepared to face a much different QB before Anthony Richardson got hurt, and then an awful Jaguars pass defense. This is a great rebound spot for the Vikings off the minibye, and I expect their pass-catchers to dominate Indy's defense and put up a big number while Flacco struggles to keep up.

Vikings linebacker Blake Cashman has missed two straight games with turf toe, and it's not a coincidence Minnesota lost both. Cashman, who missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, is key to Minnesota's run defense. His potential absence would open things up for Jonathan Taylor, who is running behind an elite offensive line. Joe Flacco has seen everything and should hold up just fine against Brian Flores' aggressive blitzing scheme. Flacco has thrown seven TDs and one INT while completing 66 percent of his throws. Each of Indy's games has been decided by six or fewer points. While Minnesota's dynamic offense will have plenty of success coming off extra rest, I'm expecting a tight, high-scoring game and I grabbed the points.

No receiver will benefit more from the Colts' QB change than Josh Downs. He has 42 targets in the past five games and has cleared this receiving yards prop number four times. With a competent passing QB, and the potential for Indy to be playing from behind, I bet Downs to go Over on receiving yards.

This tight end has been a difference maker for the Vikings and it won't take long for Sam Darnold to notice him in the RZ. Big spot for his first game back and comes against a Colts team that allows 85% completions to TEs. Playing a hunch here that Kevin O'Connell will have some plays designed in key spots with him in mind, especially given the way the Colts will clampdown on Justin Jefferson. Darnold's passing TD efficiency is way down after that torrid start the first three weeks and getting this big target back will likely show up big as the field gets smaller.

Downs is a legit deep threat and he's now playing with one of the best play action, deep ball QBs of his era. And Joe Flacco had a full week to actually practice and prepare this week and he is facing a bad secondary. Downs can separate and Flacco will be looking for him, just like Anthony Richardson did. Only Flacco can get it into his hands with much greater consistency. He has a catch of 20+ in 4 of the last 5 and 6 of the last 8. Think about what Amari Cooper did on a weekly basis with Flacco in Cleveland last December. Downs should be that guy now.

You attack the Vikings through the air and pick on any number of their crappy corners. And the crowd won't get to this veteran QB, and he won't duck the blitz and he's playing behind a strong OL now. Vikings have the best success rate vs run and allow just 3.9/carry. Vikings have allowed 247 passing yards in 5 of last 6. Flacco is over 250 passing yards in 6 of his last 7 starts

Flacco has done this in 8 straight appearances, despite some of them being coming in cold off the bench. Since taking the field for the Browns last year, this cashes. Dude has chucked it for 20 TDs in those 8 games. He's seen every blitz and won't flinch, so let Brian Flores bring it. Flores is short on corners who can actually cover, and that but his aggro has a D regressing badly. Vikings allowed 14 TD passes - 27th in NFL - and 2+ in 4 straight games (12 total in that span). Flacco has more than enough weapons to make it happen and is 6th in NFL in EPA/dropback. He will take all kinds of play action deep shots with this run game.