Baltimore understands how to play against Jaden Daniels. You make sure that he cannot go over the top and keep him in the pocket and you let him complete the short passes. This means it’s is less likely TM has a huge play.

Tucker is having a down year by his lofty standards, but he is still nearly automatic when he trots out onto the field. He has 10 attempts this season, so I expect him to have ample opportunity to hit this number on Sunday.

Rookie QB Jayden Daniels has been a revelation, even in contention for league MVP. He has excelled in large part because of RB Brian Robinson's rushing. Robinson is a scratch, and Daniels could be hard-pressed to deliver enough scoring to keep pace with the Ravens. Coach John Harbaugh has a knack for constraining first-year QBs. Washington's defense is porous, having allowed 11 TD throws without a single interception and a league-high in rushes of 10-plus yards. RB Derrick Henry seems a lock for a few of those. After a misleading 0-2 start, Baltimore has knocked off Dallas, Buffalo and Cincinnati -- all of them as good as or better than the Commanders.

This game looks like a dead-over. Washington and Baltimore each are 4-1 to the over and Washington is getting better each week scoring 34 more points the last 3 weeks and they won the last 4 weeks. Jayden Daniels has made quarterbacking look so simple running and throwing the ball. Washington has the No. 4 offense in the league. With Daniel's running they have the No. 2 rushing attack in the league. And of course, we have the Ravens who are No. 1 ranked in offense and the No. 1 rushing team thanks to Lamar Jackson. It's the defense of the Ravens that I think we get over. Should be a fun game. Just the over.

Baltimore's secondary is a mixed bag -- they were terrible against the Bengals, and great against the Cowboys. But the top target-getter for every single team that's played the Ravens has had at least five receptions. And a lot of those guys had eight or more targets, a number McLaurin's seen in three of his past four games. I'd be a little more cautious about this if I felt the Commanders could run the ball, but not only is Brian Robinson Jr. uncertain for the game, but the Ravens were dominant against the run until last week and should certainly bounce back. It should mean more throwing for Jayden Daniels, and McLaurin has been his most-targeted option in every game this season.

Henry's crushed defenses for at least 84 yards in four straight games, even if he needed a miraculous 51-yard jaunt in overtime last week to hit the mark again. But that game last week saw him get just 15 rushes, a relative off-day for Henry considering his prior two games. Washington's run defense isn't good, allowing 5.3 yards per carry to running backs along with 45.5% of runs good for at least five yards, 20.9% of runs good for at least 10 yards. All three of those marks? League-worst. They shut down the Browns run game last week, so what? This is a totally different offense with one of the best backs going.

Zay Flowers finally looked like the WR1 he was expected to be last week against Cincinnati. Flowers gets another dream match up against a Commanders defense ranked 26th in EPA per dropback, in addition to ranking dead last in First Read EPA. The Commanders also double team at the 9th lowest rate which bodes well for Flowers considering he’s been excellent against single man coverage. I also like Washington to potentially push Baltimore here as well.

The upstart Commanders face a massive test against what may be the league's best team, and they're a longshot to slow down a Baltimore offense with an easily league-best 6.8 yards per play that is top tier running and passing the ball. The Ravens' elite run defense will put the game on Jayden Daniels' shoulders as a passer, and while he had amazing success against a string of awful defenses, he took a step back against a struggling Browns unit last week. Maybe he has enough to keep this close, but I think the line should be on the other side of 7 when properly rating Baltimore at the top of power ratings.

The Ravens could easily drop another 40-burger here and Lamar is playing like an MVP again. They are 14/15 in the RZ since halftime of Week 2, and the only FG was in OT at end of game last week, when that's all they needed to win. WSH D is a joke and already allowed 11 passing TDs. I am playing this above in alt markets and this is not a game where they have to just ground and pound. Too many match-up problems in the passing game, too, especially with their array of TEs.

We keep playing his markets and Travis Kelce after their slow starts led to market over-corrections. Ravens are destroying teams in 21/22/12 personnel with Andrews on the field for much of it, averaging over 11 yards/attempt. Lamar has a 153 passer rating out of that stuff during their 3 game in streak. Commanders have faced 2nd fewest passing attempts to TE in the NFL; that is about to change massively and their pathetic run D will be hard pressed to match-up with BAL heavy looks. Under center play action will gut them and Andrews will get his share.

Andrews is Lamar Jackson's main guy, he has gotten healthier by the week from a training camp car accident and injury last season. He's now gone 8 straight Jackson starts without a TD; he'd never gone more than 6. He is facing an awful pass D that has already allowed 11 passing TDs. Ravens other TEs already have 4 receiving TDs and BAL running 2 TE sets over 48% of time, most in NFL and twice league average. He is way overdue and Lamar will find his guy. Andrews has 33 TD in 76 G with Lamar, 13 more than anyone else.

The Ravens are the best run D in the NFL, and even with WSH rolling on the ground this season, I think they take away some of the designed runs. But Daniels extending plays outside the pocket and taking off could be a real problem for them. He is over 80 yards twice already this season, and with Lamar Jackson on the other sideline, I have a feeling Jayden will be getting on his horse, too. Ravens going to have sit back deep to take away big plays that have killed them; should be plenty of grass for him to roam.

The Ravens have been killed by #1 WR all season and Scary Terry certainly qualifies. He has gotten off since a slow start and Ravens have 2nd worst pass D in the NFL and the worst on balls 25+ in the air - where he does damage. He has 55+ receptions in 2 of last 3 games. Ravens safeties really struggling as their rookie coordinator learns to call plays and set defenses in the NFL. Ravens allowed 15 receptions to WR of 20 yards or more already this season and NFL-worst 11 of 25+. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels not afraid to uncork it.

Should have jumped this sooner. Ravens games averaging 57 points (1st) and WSH 3rd at 54. BAL has second-worst pass D in NFL and facing an elite deep ball, quick score offense that has scored 34 or more 3 in row. Lamar Jackson playing MVP ball and scored 28+ 3 in a row, while his D has allowed 25+ in 4 of 5 games. Teams combined to go 8-2 to the over this season. Ravens have major back-end issues with a rookie D coordinator. Jayden Daniels will put unique pressure on them. Commanders D is still a joke, and it will get exposed here. BAL gutting teams through the air out of heavy personnel; will be especially big issue for this WSH defense.