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Sun, Oct 138:05 pm UTCEmpower Field at Mile High
66 F
Track OnCBS Sports
Los Angeles
Chargers
LAC
Last 5 ATS
W/L11-6
ATS12-4
O/U8-9-0
FINAL SCORE
23
-
16
Denver
Broncos
DEN
Last 5 ATS
W/L10-7
ATS12-5
O/U10-6-1
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
Last 5 ATS
11-6
Win /Loss
10-7
12-4
Spread
12-5
8-9-0
Over / Under
10-6-1
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER

Simulation Picks

SPREAD
LAC @ DEN
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MONEYLINE
LAC @ DEN
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OVER / UNDER
LAC @ DEN
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40%
PUBLIC
60%
MONEY
63%
PUBLIC
37%
MONEY
Over79%
PUBLIC
Under21%
Over
MONEY
Under

Understanding Public and Money

Think of 'Public' as the percentage of people betting on each side and 'Money' as how much money is being bet. When there's a big difference between the 'Public' and 'Money' data, it usually means that the more serious bettors (referred to as 'Sharp Money') are favoring a particular side.

Expert Picks

Avatar
Total Made Field GoalsWil Lutz Over 1.5 Total Made Field Goals -120
LOSS
Unit1.0
+442.5
35-28 in Last 63 NFL Player Props Picks
Jimmie's Analysis:

The Broncos have had some issues finding the end zone when they've reached the red zone this season, and the Chargers are a solid defensive team. Lutz has kicked well for Denver, and is averaging close to three attempts per game. In what projects to be a low-scoring game, look for the Broncos to take points where they can get them.

Pick Made: Oct 13, 5:33 pm UTC on BetMGM
Avatar
Total ReceptionsCourtland Sutton Over 3.5 Total Receptions -165
WIN
Unit0.5
+1150
64-45 in Last 109 NFL Player Props Picks
Erik's Analysis:

Sutton is averaging over eight targets a game but thus far the receptions have not been there. He expected receptions are quite a bit higher than the actual receptions so let’s bet on what should be happening and take the over

Pick Made: Oct 13, 4:42 pm UTC on DraftKings
Point SpreadL.A. Chargers -3 -104
WIN
Unit1.0
+961
33-21-4 in Last 58 NFL Picks
+524
22-15-4 in Last 41 NFL ATS Picks
+383
6-2 in Last 8 LAC ATS Picks
Zack's Analysis:

The Denver Broncos have rolled off three straight wins, including last week’s blowout over the Las Vegas Raiders. Sunday’s game should be much different as the Chargers are coming out of a bye week. They’ll also be hungry to end a two game skid. With any rookie quarterback there are going to be highs and lows. Look for the Chargers to be prepared to limit Bo Nix effectiveness. Take the Chargers.

Pick Made: Oct 13, 2:27 am UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Total Tackles Plus AssistsDerwin James Over 6.5 Total Tackles Plus Assists -128
LOSS
Unit1.5
+378
151-121 in Last 272 NFL Player Props Picks
Larry's Analysis:

Safeties have been putting up way-above-average tackle numbers versus the Broncos. That makes this a great matchup for Derwin James, who returns from a one-game suspension. With two key members of the secondary ruled out, look for James to make at least seven combined tackles in his return.

Pick Made: Oct 13, 2:00 am UTC on BetMGM
Avatar
Total Receiving YardsJavonte Williams Over 18.5 Total Receiving Yards -115
LOSS
Unit1.0
+192
10-7 in Last 17 NFL Player Props Picks
Dave's Analysis:

Williams has been way over this in 3 of his past four games. It's helped that he's seen a 23.3% target per route run rate this year, and he's averaging nearly 8 yards per catch. The Chargers are good in terms of defensive metrics against running backs through the air, but teams have thrown against them a ton -- three times out of four, opponents of the Bolts have thrown to their running backs at least eight times per game. I'm guessing it's because the Chargers play the third-most zone coverage so as to not get beat deep.

Pick Made: Oct 11, 9:03 pm UTC on DraftKings
Point SpreadDenver +3 -115
LOSS
Unit1.0
+252
6-3 in Last 9 NFL Picks
+180
3-1 in Last 4 NFL ATS Picks
+244
8-5-1 in Last 14 DEN ATS Picks
Bruce's Analysis:

Just why are the Chargers favored at a place where they haven't won in six years? Though Justin Herbert has had a bye week to rest his sore ankle, he hasn't been moving the same all season. Herbert's downfield passing targets are also limited these days as Jim Harbaugh has been forced into a ground-and-pound approach featuring JK Dobbins. Note that Denver's defense has shut down much better passing games than this one, with Pat Surtain II effectively cuts off half of the field. The Chargers look to be truly one-dimensional on Sunday. Meanwhile, Bo Nix is growing in confidence each week as the Denver win streak has reached three. Most assuredly, we think, the oddsmakers have the wrong team favored here! Play Broncos

Pick Made: Oct 10, 4:48 pm UTC on BetMGM
Point SpreadL.A. Chargers -2.5 -115
WIN
Unit1.0
+180
3-2 in Last 5 NFL Picks
+90
2-1-1 in Last 4 NFL ATS Picks
+1016
34-21-4 in Last 59 LAC ATS Picks
Larry's Analysis:

Denver ranks 21st in yards per carry (4.1). The Broncos will struggle on the ground against a Chargers defense that ranks fourth in EPA per rush (25th last season). I love backing Jim Harbaugh off the bye; he'll have a healthier Justin Herbert, with Joe Alt among the supporting cast expected to return. The Broncos are riding a three-game win streak but remember, they were about to go down two touchdowns to the lowly Raiders until Gardner Minshew threw a job-costing pick-6 to Patrick Surtain. I would only play this under a field goal.

Pick Made: Oct 10, 2:08 am UTC on BetMGM
Over / UnderUnder 35.5 -105
LOSS
Unit1.0
+240
2-1 in Last 3 NFL O/U Picks
+35
2-1 in Last 3 DEN O/U Picks
Daniel's Analysis:

This should be the rock fight of the week. Under head coach Jim Harbaugh, LA has adopted an old school football approach. They play at one of the slowest paces in the NFL, looking to pound the rock and control time of possession on offense, and keep their opponents stuck in ‘3rd and long’ on defense. Denver’s defense has been exceptional this season, with an elite secondary and a vaunted pass rush. I have trouble seeing the Chargers hit explosive plays against standout Broncos CBs Patrick Surtain and Riley Moss. Broncos home games at Mile High stadium have strongly trended to the Under (48-30 since 2015). I don’t see this game breaking 30 total points.

Pick Made: Oct 09, 8:44 am UTC on FanDuel
Point SpreadDenver +3 -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1421
39-23 in Last 62 NFL Picks
+775
53-41-1 in Last 95 NFL ATS Picks
+1453
37-21-2 in Last 60 LAC ATS Picks
R.J.'s Analysis:

The Chargers had the bye to get healthier after several key players missed their last game, but I don't think that's a good reason to make them three-point road favorites against a top-tier defense that has allowed three TDs outside of garbage time over the last four weeks. The offense even came alive against the Raiders, and though I expect it'll be tougher sledding this week against what's been a good Chargers defense, assuming Joey Bosa is back from injury. If all of the Chargers' key players return from injury, this line should be south of 3, and at this current point of uncertainty I'd make it a pick 'em.

Pick Made: Oct 07, 6:03 pm UTC on DraftKings
Over / UnderUnder 37 -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
+275
5-2 in Last 7 NFL Picks
+99
10-8 in Last 18 NFL O/U Picks
+107
9-7 in Last 16 LAC O/U Picks
Jason's Analysis:

Chargers healthier on defense coming off an early bye, and Derwin James back from suspension. LA games averaged 29.5 points through 4 weeks, second lowest to Denver (28). Jim Harbaugh is 24-10 to the under in his last 34 NFL games. Sean Payton, sans a dynamic QB in Denver, is 11-6 to the under. Broncos swept this series 24-7 and 16-9 last year and played one that totaled 35 in 2022 as well. This series is 8-4 to the under since 2018, with an average of 40.5 points; the current iterations of these rosters don’t scare me off this number, Broncos are under in six of their last eight AFC West games. Chargers are under in 14 of their last 20 in the division.

Pick Made: Oct 07, 12:50 am UTC on Caesars

Team Injuries

Los Angeles Chargers
Monday, May 05, 2025
Avatar
OT
Branson Taylor
Knee
Thursday, May 01, 2025
Avatar
MLB
Denzel Perryman
ElbowQuestionable
Avatar
WR
Jalen Reagor
FingerQuestionable
Avatar
CB
Ja'Sir Taylor
RibsQuestionable
Avatar
CB
Elijah Molden
Knee - MeniscusQuestionable
Avatar
OT
Tyler McLellan
UndisclosedQuestionable
Avatar
LB
Daiyan Henley
Shoulder - LabrumQuestionable
Avatar
LB
Chris Collins
UndisclosedQuestionable
Avatar
OL
Bucky Williams
UndisclosedQuestionable
Avatar
OT
Trey Pipkins
ObliqueQuestionable
Avatar
CB
Cam Hart
ShoulderQuestionable
Avatar
WR
Brenden Rice
ShoulderQuestionable
Denver Broncos
Wednesday, Apr 30, 2025
Avatar
TE
Evan Engram
Shoulder - LabrumQuestionable
Avatar
LB
Dre Greenlaw
QuadricepsQuestionable
Avatar
SAF
Delarrin Turner-Yell
Knee - ACLQuestionable
Avatar
OT
Frank Crum
IllnessQuestionable
Avatar
LB
Jonah Elliss
ShoulderQuestionable
Tuesday, Feb 11, 2025
Avatar
LB
Alex Singleton
Knee - ACLQuestionable
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