This is a significant number for the Buccaneers to cover, but the offensive advantages of the home team – from Baker Mayfield to his full set of weapons – should carry the day against a Broncos team averaging 13 points in its first two games. Denver’s Bo Nix has four interceptions and no passing touchdowns through two weeks. Plus, we saw what happened last season when the Broncos had to fly East to face the Dolphins. The Bucs defense has not been great, but Todd Bowles should be able to draw up enough pressures to keep Nix at bay in the second half even if he has some early success on the road.

Tampa Bay is banged up on the defensive side of the ball, but there is no reason to believe the Broncos will suddenly be competent on offense. One thing the Broncos have going for them is their defense has played well enough to keep them in games this season. I expect these teams to trade punts early and keep the 1Q total at 7 or less.

Not sure we'll get a lot of support with this pick, but here goes. Punchless as the Broncos have been, Denver has stayed within a touchdown of a couple of potential playoff teams thanks to a scrappy defense, and might have earned a better fate in both games with a bit more help from the offense. Bo Nix has also tossed a couple of damaging red zone picks or the Broncos could well have a W on the board instead of sitting at 0-2. Will Lutz can kick field goals with the best of them, too, so Denver's scoring output doesn't have to come exclusively from Nix. The Bucs are off of an enthralling win at Detroit, but a possible letdown spot awaits. Play Broncos

Baker Mayfield's wideouts are healthy. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and exciting rookie Jalen McMillan are gobbling up targets, along with running back Rachaad White. That's left Cade Otton with four targets through two games. He's made one catch for five yards. Although this is a decent matchup for Otton, Mayfield is wisely peppering his top-end playmakers with most of the targets.

Tampa Bay’s start to the season has featured two strong performances over Washington and Detroit. Washington featured a rookie quarterback in his first start, and Tampa Bay had familiarity in their third matchup against Detroit in the past year. As poor as Denver has played offensively, they have lost both their games by a touchdown or less. Look for Denver to fight once again and get a road cover at Tampa.

Denver has traditionally struggled in early East Coast games -- remember last year's 70-20 loss against the Dolphins. This is a game that should have a double-digit spread in my opinion -- despite the Bucs likely being without Vita Vea and Antoine Winfield Jr.. Baker Mayfield is playing the best football of his career, while Bo Nix is experiencing some rookie growing pains. Getting this line at under 7 points is a great value.

Tampa Bay has overachieved to start this season. Because of their improbable win over the Detroit Lions, (Bucs were out-gained by 247 yards) Tampa Bay are inflated favorites in this week. Despite their early success, I feel QB Baker Mayfield is due for some regression against Denver CB Patrick Surtain and this formidable secondary. I am still higher on Denver rookie QB Bo Nix than most. The first two defenses that he faced to start his career were Mike Macdonald's Seahawks and Mike Tomlin's Steelers. Tough ask. Nix will have his best game yet against the Bucs. When Broncos head coach Sean Payton is the underdog, he is 53-36-2 ATS. I would consider buying the .5 point to make Broncos +7 up to -125 odds.

Tampa Bay returns home after their emotional win against the team that eliminated them from the playoffs last season. The Denver Broncos could have defeated the Steelers had it not been for multiple dropped passes. Tampa Bay is ranked last in sacks and pressure rate. Bo Nix and company can move the ball against a depleted secondary where the back door will be open if needed. Vita Vea has been instrumental in the Buccaneers' run defense, as they are 3-3 straight up and 2-4 against the spread without him under head coach Todd Bowles. The largest margin of victory was six points. It seems like a flat spot for the home team, whose defense was on the field for 83 plays last week.

The Broncos are a desperate 0-2 team that's been competitive in both losses, losing by six and seven, while the Bucs are fortunate to be 2-0 after being dominated yardage-wise at Detroit. Still, I love this matchup for Todd Bowles' blitzing defense versus Bo Nix. Broncos right tackle Mike McGlinchey (MCL) is out; his backups are shaky at best. This is a Denver offense that's averaged 2.8 yards per play in the first three quarters, before defenses moved into a less-aggressive mode. Denver also could be down two key defenders in John Franklin-Myers (concussion) and Baron Browning (foot). Look for Baker Mayfield (73.5 percent completion rate, 5 TDs, 1 INT) to continue his efficient play as the Bucs cover.

With the amount of pressure rookie QB Bo Nix will see from this Tampa Bay defense it'll be tough for him to find a rhythm. What will hurt the Broncos most in this game is their inability to establish a run game to calm the pressure. This is a deadly combination for the road team in Denver.

The Bucs are coming off a surprising road upset of the Lions where they gained just 216 yards, and in a case like this I'd typically be looking to fade a moderate favorite the following week, especially one dealing with a lot of defensive injuries. But this Broncos offense cannot execute even minimally downfield at all; Bo Nix is 11 of 36 with four picks on passes more than five(!) yards downfield. Even if Vita Vea can't play, I don't see the Broncos scoring many points here (or ever), and they lost a key O-lineman as well in Mike McGlinchey. I think this should be on the other side of 7.