This number keeps moving in Cincinnati's favor. Ja'Marr Chase is playing, and I believe the Bengals are at least 10 points better than the rebuilding Patriots -- especially at home.

Shying away from large Week 1 spreads is generally advisable, but these teams are so drastically different that it is sensible. Joe Burrow appears to be 100% healthy, and the disparity between him and Jacoby Brissett is significant. The Bengals are down Tee Higgins, which creates the possibility for a breakout Week 1 performance from third-round pick Jermaine Burton (consider his props). Zack Moss and Chase Brown should do well stepping in for Joe Mixon, and while it would be nice for Cincinnati’s receiving corps to be stronger, this should be a double-digit win.

The recent history of the Bengals' WR3 slot, which includes Trenton Irwin and Tyler Boyd,. shows a track record of success when asked to step up. With Tee Higgins out and Ja'Marr Chase's usage in question, Iosivas should see plenty of attention from QB Joe Burrow and his TD equity provides value on this number.

This is a high total for one of the least efficient RBs (albeit small sample) in the NFL last year. Brown was dreadfully inefficient as a rusher, while being otherworldly as a receiver. It also bodes poorly for Brown’s potential usage that it was announced he will be the Bengals primary kick returner. It seems more likely that to open the season Zach Moss will be the team’s RB1 and at the very least get the majority of early down work, while Brown will likely mix in on obvious passing downs and third downs.

This line is an outlier at sportsbooks, with the Patriots receiving an overly generous amount of points for an opener. Over the past quarter-century, underdogs receiving more than a TD in Week 1 are 36-20 against the spread, according to ESPN. The Bengals have been slow lately out of the blocks, covering once out of eight games in the season's two initial weeks. Cincy QB Joe Burrow might be rusty, having missed the past seven outings in 2023, and confronts a formidable secondary.

Stevenson was limited to 12 games last year because of injury, but still managed 38 receptions on 51 targets. His pass-catching ability should again be a safety blanket for a limited Patriots with an inexperienced and largely unproven WR group. Look for the sturdy dual-threat RB to clear this number with room to spare.

Patriots tight end Hunter Henry (foot) does not carry a game designation, so he is good to go for Week 1. He's facing a Bengals defense that gave up 107 catches to tight ends last season -- tied for most in the NFL. Jacoby Brissett likes to target his tight ends, and New England could be playing catch-up. Look for Henry to make at least three catches.

This number opened at -9 and even kissed -10 in some spots before backtracking by a couple points. This is likely the result of the possibility that Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase either wouldn't play or would be limited by his holdout. It appears Chase will be on the field and this number will get steamed on the favorite again. But I'm not sure Chase's production even matters much against a rebuilding New England club that will likely be one of the NFL's worst teams this season.

When you Google "Joe Burrow health," you'll find he's going to appear on the cover of a men's health magazine. Normally at this time of year, you'll read about his recovery from his latest injury. With Ja'Marr Chase returning to practice this week, the Bengals appear headed to putting a top-tier offense on the field against what's probably the worst or second-worst offense in the league. That should make this line double digits. Hopefully you got the value early in the summer, but it's still worth playing at Bengals -9.

The Pats might be the worst team in football and the Bengals might win the Super Bowl. Cincy escaped preseason without injury and love their new secondary. NE has a brutal offensive line, got Jacoby Brissett beat up. Pats lack any skill players to play from behind, so not as worried about backdoor situations. NE lacks a pass rush. Rookie head coach trying to replace a legend. Could see this getting very sideways and like avoiding double digits here.