There’s a ton of money on the Saints in this game, which has kept the spread under the field goal, and I get the doubt on the Buccaneers given the way they won last week. Let’s remember New Orleans’ only wins this season are against non-playoff teams, its last two against the Giants and Panthers; NO hasn’t won on the road since Oct. 29. Tampa Bay is inconsistent offensively, but it is home and players know they can clinch the NFC South with a victory. The Bucs are 10-5 ATS, the Saints 4-10 ATS. New Orleans gained less than 200 yards in the prior matchup, and Mike Evans had not broken out yet.

Hello? Has anyone noticed that the Bucs have won four in a row outright, the last two by a combined 32 points? And that the Saints have stumbled three straight times on the road? And that Tampa Bay blasted New Orleans by 17 earlier this season, extending its streak against the Saints to three? QB Baker Mayfield is in a groove. QB Derek Carr is getting there in his first year in N'Awlins but does not have the pass protection or the star receiver (Mike Evans) with which Mayfield is blessed.

The math is simple for the Bucs; win either of their last two games and they win the NFC South. Lose both (next week it's Carolina at Charlotte), and no playoffs. We like the Bucs' chances because Baker Mayfield has found the sweet spot with this offense, and a connection with WR Mike Evans in particular, to fuel four straight wins in which the defense has also impressed, especially last week when close to shutting out the Jags until two late J'ville TDS in the 30-12 romp. On the other hand, no confidence right now in the Saints or QB Derek Carr, whose lack of situational awareness is proving too burdensome. Play Bucs

Shaheed has had over 30 yards in each of his past two games, both of which Derek Carr has wrangled control of the offense. As a borderline every-down member of the offense, Shaheed is set up to be a factor against a Buccaneers defense that remains awful versus the pass. On the season they rank bottom-eight in completion rate, yards per catch, yards after catch per reception and completions of 20-plus yards allowed to WRs. And for this week they will be without quality cornerback Carlton Davis and pass rusher Shaquil Barrett, making the matchup juicy. Last week the Jaguars had three receivers with over 30 yards, two of which no one ever heard of before.

There's a ton of sharp action on the Saints +3, but I prefer the Tampa side despite New Orleans getting extra rest. Baker Mayfield has thrown for nine touchdowns and run for another during the Bucs' four-game win streak, getting intercepted once. In Week 4, the Bucs held the Saints to 197 yards of total offense in New Orleans. The Saints have lost four of six with the wins coming against the lowly Panthers and Giants. Look for Todd Bowles to improve to 4-0 versus New Orleans as the Bucs cover.

The market expects this to be a good spot for the Saints, but I'm not sure I agree. This is the first time they're playing outdoors in almost three months, even if Tampa is a far cry from temperatures in other parts of the country. But more importantly, their defense has not been playing well when facing non-bottom tier defenses, and the last four road teams they faced had at least 370 yards and 24 points. The Bucs have scored at least 29 in three straight and are hitting their stride offensively, and I expect their pass game to lead the team to a win here.

Love this spot for Chris Olave going against a pass funnel TB pass defense that has given up a tremendous amount of downfield production. Olave is having a very nice season despite, especially if we look at the underlying metrics. Olave's target share, air yard share, first read target rate, and open score all rank amongst the elite at the WR position. TB's pass defense ranks in the bottom in nearly every metric, give up a ton of explosive passing, and don't like double team opposing WRs, making this a potential blowup spot for Olave.

White is over this in four straight games and went over this in the first meeting with the Saints. He's over this in 9 of the last 10 games. He has a long reception of 20+ in 7 of the last 10 games. Makes people miss, has a great feel for pockets to sit down in for screens and checkdowns.

Godwin finally looks back to himself the last few weeks and with Mike Evans and his 13 TDs getting plenty of attention from top corners, the underneath stuff to Godwin looks pretty good to Baker Mayfield. He's had 11 targets or more in 3 straight games and every NFC South game this season. I anticipate that staying the same here, with the Bucs at home and pass protection not an issue, and this is a reasonable number for that kind of target share.

I don't think he throws for 3 TDs like he did in the first meeting between these teams, but 2 is plenty reasonable. Bucs run game is still very spotty but his WRs are healthy and he's hit this in 7 of the last 9 games. He has 9 total TDs in the last 3 weeks, hitting this three straight weeks.

These teams combined for 35 points in their first meeting. Bucs are 3rd in the NFL in offensive TDs allowed at home. Saints are 6th in total offensive TDs allowed. Six straight Bucs homes games have gone under this and the other was 44 in Week 2 (avg score: 33). Five of the Saints 8 road games are under this. Saints have not played an NFC South game over 39. Bucs NFC South games: 54, 39, 29, 35. Carr threw for 127 in first meeting. Baker is cooking but Saints are 4th in opposing passer rating and 2nd in completion % allowed. Expect another low-scoring struggle.

I am expecting public bettors to be down on Derek Carr's Saints, and to be riding high on Baker Mayfield's Bucs. With the division on the line, I'll buy low on the Saints as +3 underdogs. The Bucs have looked good on their 4-game win streak, but I am not overvaluing their wins against a weird Packers team, and a free-falling Jaguars team ridden with injury. The Saints pass attack is once again dangerous with a healthy Chris Olave. If Bucs head coach Todd Bowles' blitz-heavy defense isn't pressuring Carr, the Saints should be able to move the ball with ease. I'm expecting this to be a one-possession game, so I'll take the points.