The Bears have the NFL's top-ranked run defense while Atlanta is a respectable No. 15. With two run-heavy offensive units colliding amid a backdrop of inclement weather in Chicago, it stands to reason they would both have to perform above expectation for this to hit the Over.

Home finale as a Chicago Bear for Justin Fields? Maybe. It better be for Matt Eberflus, although for once the Bears might actually have the head coaching edge because Arthur Smith isn't a wise man. That Falcons offense is very one-dimensional and the one thing that Bears defense can do is stop the run.

It's tough to pinpoint what Bears team we are going to get on a weekly basis, but what interests me about Chicago is that it has not lost a game to a non-playoff team since Nov. 5. It's only defeats in that time have been road games at the Lions and Browns. At home, Chicago has won four straight games by at least a field goal each. The Bears should be able to limit the Falcons’ running game, and if my choice is between Justin Field sand Taylor Heinicke, I’m taking Fields every day.

Although Chicago's late-season surge has been impressive, the Bears nearly squandered an otherwise dominant performance against Arizona last week because of mental mistakes and poor play calling. Bettors shouldn't get comfortable laying points with an improving but marginal team against a more talented Atlanta club that is still in the thick of a muddled NFC wild-card race and coming off one of its best performances of the season.

Chicago has been playing above .500 (6-5) since early October, and did some of that with Justin Fields out at QB. Fields has flashed some real electricity since his return, and if not for a couple of plays vs. the Lions and Browns, games Chicago led most fo the way, the Bears could be sitting on a 6-game win streak at the moment. We are less convinced about the Falcons and their musical chairs QB rotation that has now landed on Taylor Heinicke, and low-variance ATL is about to be knocked from the NFC South race regardless if the Bcus beat the Saints today. Play Bears

The Atlanta Falcons season has been a roller coaster and despite their 7-8 record are still firmly in the mix to not only make the playoffs but win the NFC South. Taylor Heinicke will get the start at QB for Atlanta and is facing a Chicago pass funnel who defensively are very stout against the run. Heinicke has performed admirably all things considered and while this game projects to be ugly and low scoring, I do think there is some value on this passing line and its ultimately 15-20 yards too low. It also appears that weather will NOT be a major factor, which was initially a concern of mine.

Bijan Robinson has been targeted at a very high rate since Atlanta's Week 11 bye, including catching seven of 10 targets last week versus Indianapolis. Now he faces a Bears defense that's stout against the run but has given up the second-most catches to opposing running backs. I bet Robinson to make four-plus grabs at plus money.

The home field has declined as a factor in the league. This matchup looms as an exception. The Bears have swept their last four straight-up at Soldier Field. The Falcons are 2-5 on the road while averaging just 13.6 ppg, more than nine below their rate at home. Atlanta might have few opportunities to score, given the Bears' league lead in time of possession. Chicago's defense excels at takeaways, so QB Taylor Heinicke, not a customary starter, must be on high alert -- or else.

The Bears have been playing very good football ever since acquiring Montez Sweat and I don't expect that to stop now that they're virtually out of the playoff picture. As for the Falcons, they've been blessed with an easy schedule which has led them to a respectable record, but they simply can't seem to put it all together. I'm a Heinicke fan, but the Bears have been good at home and I think their defense will turn Heinicke over 1 or 2 times on Sunday. That should be enough to get the cover.

The Bears are still barely alive for a playoff spot and wondering what could've been if not for late meltdowns in Detroit and Cleveland. If those games ended four minutes of gametime earlier, the Bears would be on a six-game winning streak entering a matchup with a Falcons team that has not traveled well all year. The Atlanta offense seemed to hit its stride with Taylor Heinicke at QB last week, but last time we saw him he was getting benched in Arizona, so I'm not penciling him in for a good offensive day against one of the better defenses in the league since midseason. Now that this line has dropped off the key number, I'm jumping on the Bears.

The Bears allow an NFL-low 80.7 rushing yards per game, which sets up well against Atlanta's run-heavy offense. Jaylon Johnson should contain Drake London. Overall, it will be an offensive struggle for a Falcons team averaging 13.6 points on the road. Justin Fields led TD drives on three straight possessions last week before stalling out against Arizona in a 27-16 win. Look for the surging Bears, with Teven Jenkins and Lucas Patrick expected back to solidify the O-line, to do enough to get to 7-9.

The Falcons are managing a bunch of injuries up front to their offensive line, and QB Taylor Heinicke was also limited in practice to start the week. Atlanta has topped 16 points just twice away from home, though both times came in Heinicke starts. Those were against bad Titans and Cardinals defenses, while the Bears defense has been playing very well since midseason and is typically great at home, where five straight opponents haven't scored more than 16 offensive points. I'll fade the Falcons playing outdoors in late December and expect points to be at a premium.

The Falcons seemingly hit a new gear with Taylor Heinicke at QB, averaging 6.3 yards per play in a blowout win over the Colts. Heinicke also started the only two Atlanta road games that have went over the total this year. But I'm backing this to be a lower-scoring game with Chicago going 6-1-1 to the Under in their last eight, which coincides with the defense adding Montez Sweat and getting a lot healthier. Atlanta is 10-5 to the Under all year, and their last two games on the road got ugly. I don't think this one gets past 37.