How do the Jets score in this game? Yes, New York has posted some points two of the last three weeks, but those were against immensely depleted and/or poor opponents. Quality defenses have dominated this team, and the Browns have been been dominant most of the season at home. Add in a short week and Cleveland finally moving the ball offensively behind Joe Flacco, and I don't see how this is not a double-digit win for the home team. Even if Flacco throws a few picks, unless they are on short fields, I don't see how NY capitalizes.

This was 16.5 much of the day but now that it’s 17 I’ll take the under. We basically need 20 as 18 and 19 are dead first half numbers.

The Jets have allowed only one of the last 8 qbs to reach 23 completions and it was in a game where Miami was 23/26. Even on this incredible ride Flacco only medians 26 completions. Add in the fact that 26 is for a whopping 44 attempts per game and I love this play.

We're just looking for a slightly above average game from Garrett Wilson here. He just accounted for 44% of receptions and receiving yards against Washington and averages 30% on his career. Trevor Siemien’s prop line is 172 so an average receiving yard share will cash the over. I'm anticipating the Jets will be playing from behind requiring a lot of pass attempts and maybe some easy 4th quarter yardage vs prevent defenses.

This Jets defense should have some familiarity with Joe Flacco, as he was on the Jets roster from '20-22. Not only that, but they are the 7th best defense in completion percentage. They allow just 186 passing yards on the road, and much of that has to do with opposing teams not needing to pass. The Browns should find themselves up big too; look for Flacco to tally 150 yards in the first half but something closer to 50 in the second. The quarterback has had three massive games in a row above 300 yards, seems like he's due for a low total. Our model projects him for 204 yards.

Joe Flacco and David Njoku have quite simply just been on the same page, and it's been beautiful to see. Over the last three games, Njoku has caught 22 balls on 31 targets from Flacco, converting that volume into four touchdowns. Now he gets a Jets defense that has allowed the second-most touchdowns to tight ends this year, and leading WR Amari Cooper is banged up and a game-time decision. It's shaping up to be another Njoku game here, and you can find him close to +200 to score tonight.

Jerome Ford hasn't been a model of efficiency lately, but he gets a good matchup against a porous Jets rush defense and is likely in a positive game script for a majority of the game. I expect him to bounce back from a couple of tough outings in the efficiency department and get at least 13-14 carries and that should be enough to put him over this number.

Joe Flacco still has a big arm and his ability to go downfield has proved a boon for the Brownies, who have landed comfortably "over" in three of the four games Flacco has started. Meanwhile, Trevor Siemian seems less reluctant to get the ball downfield for the Jets than did the rattled Zach Wilson, though Siemian also gifted Washington a pair of TDs last week that helped that game easily clear the "totals" hurdle at MetLife, while RB Breece Hall remains a big-play threat. Weather forecast not too bad for the shores of Lake Erie on December 28, with temps expected in the mid-to-high 30s, with alight win. Play Jets-Browns "Over"

Last week, Trevor Siemian threw 49 times at home against the NFL's worst pass defense in Washington, and he managed to produce 217 passing yards. Now he's on the road, on a short week, against the NFL's No. 1 pass defense in Cleveland. The Browns' pass rush will dominate an extremely shaky Jets' O-line. Look for New York to try to run the ball as much as possible and for Siemian, when pressured, to be highly inefficient.

Joe Flacco’s NFL career 3.0 has been an entertaining four starts for the Browns. He’s thrown at least 42 passes in all four starts and the Browns have won his last three starts. He has some brilliant passes reminding everyone how good he was in his prime with the Ravens. The 2.0 version was the tired Flacco with the Broncos and Jets. The new version is the Flacco that is allowed to do what he does best. He’s slinging and has seven interceptions as well. But it’s allowed the other team short-field opportunities to score against that dominant defense. It’s supposed to be 40 degrees with a 15% chance of rain and no wind. All four of Flacco’s starts have gone Over 35. Over.

Even if this game gets sideways and is a bit of a blowout, Flacco will be going deep. They had the Texans crushed a week ago and he still threw 40+ times. Kevin Stefanski isnt even using the run as much of a decoy anymore. The Browns have 17 more passes than any NFL team over the last 6 weeks, Flacco has thrown at least 42 passes each of his starts and guys like DTR and PJ Walker were doing it 40 times a game before him. Jets are a good D, but especially with Browns at home, they will take plenty of shots.

Flacco came out chucking 50+ on the first play from scrimmage last week. Wouldn't surprise me in least if he did it here. Browns are a big-boy downfield passing game and anyone could be the target. Flacco has attempted the most passes 21+ in air in 4 weeks as a starter (24), and has 5 completions alone on balls 35+ in that span and 6 total of that length and another 4 of 30+ yards. Jets are good against the deep ball but we only need one here.

Cleveland is a great story. They have refused to use injuries and an excuse and they simply find a way. But they won’t find a way to 23 points. Joe Flacco will find tough sledding. Under.

The Browns, at hone especially, will be chucking the ball around. It's who they are. They will throw it 45 times - even if the game gets a little out of hand - and Flacco will hit several big shots and, even against a defense that is better than some he's faced, he will go 250+. Yeah I am playing Flacco yards again in alt markets well over this. A few picks won't slow him down. Kevin Stefanski is totally cool with it, and so am I

Flacco has thrown 4 TDs to his hulking TE, and six to the rest of the Browns. Njoku keeps getting heavy targets and he's scored in three straight games and if a threat to get in more than once wth the Browns throwing the ball 45 times a game these days and not even running it a ton in the RZ. If there is RZ look it this guy or Amari Cooper and maybe Sauce Gardner can help on Cooper but I like Njoku vs Jets LBs or safeties.

The Browns will be out to make a statement and the Jets are on another bad QB who hasn't been playing or practicing there for long behind the same terrible line. And now it's on a short week, too. Their offensive production on the road in the last 4 games: 0, 6, 12, 13. They are over this once in 7 road games this season. And the Browns are the best home D in the NFL in terms of yards and points and it's not all that close. They'll be out to pitch a shutout here chasing a shot at the top seed. Browns D might outscore the Jets "offense" Thursday night.

The Browns continue to throw the ball far more than any team in the NFL, they continue to be decidedly throw-heavy in the redzone and Joe Flacco will take shots into the endzone from all over the field. Yeah the Jets D is good but they arent as good on the road and Tua and Josh Allen have fared well against them at home and Flacco is going to keep chucking it even if/when he throws picks. He's done this in all four starts with the Browns and at home on a short week with all his downfield weapons healthy, I like more of the same here.

The Browns are coming off three straight wins, but this might be a bad matchup for their pass-centric Joe Flacco-led offense. The Jets are third in yards per pass allowed and top 10 in both sack rate and interception rate, while Flacco has thrown five picks in the last two games. But even if he makes some bad mistakes, I still think he'll score points against this Jets defense that just got torched by Jacoby Brissett to turn a 20-point lead into a deficit. I'm not sure how the Jets score at all in Cleveland against one of the league's best defenses, as they had just 4.5 yards per play against an awful Washington defense at home. This feels like a 20-10 type of game.

I saw Trevor Siemian play in person Sunday and it wasn't pretty, despite the fact he was facing the NFL's worst pass defense in Washington. He has a weak arm and he stares down his favorite target, usually Garrett Wilson. Going to Cleveland to face the surging Browns on a short week spells trouble. Look for Cleveland to win a 20-10 type of game and lay the points.

Jets won't score points here unless Flacco throws a bunch of pick sixes. I don't see it. Jets offense has been shambles all season and don't let a first half last week against the fugazi Commandos D fool you. Sure, Flacco will get his, but this is more about the Browns being able to win 14-6 if they have to. Browns allow a ridiculous 3.5 yds/play and 0.90 pts/drive at home and will turn Siemian over and probably score defensively themselves against this hapless Hackett-run offense with inept OL play. Stefanski will throw 45 times no matter what and Flacco can duplicate what Brissett did vs Jets in 2nd half in Week 16.