This Niners pass rush will be forcing some quick passes out of Lamar Jackson. Baltimore has had the luxury of playing some experimental offense the past few weeks: pass heavy to WRs against the Rams and then run heavy against the Jaguars. I think this is a game script that allows them to hit the short pass game, as they have to other NFC West opponents this year. Our model has his projected for 5.1 receptions, so at plus money, this is certainly worth the play.

The Niners have some key injuries in favor of Gus Edwards. DT Arik Armstead is out and Javon Hargrave will be playing hurt. For what it's worth, the Niners gave up 234 yards on 7.8 YPC to the Cardinals with those two out. Ravens OTs are terrible in pass protection right now and while Justice Hill will get plenty of snaps, he is their best pass protecting RB. Their strength is in their Guards and Center, look for them to run Gus up the middle.

The Ravens' best wins -- both dominant -- came at home nearly two months ago, around the time of the 49ers' three-game losing streak. San Francisco has been dominant since, winning six straight by 12+ points. Baltimore and Miami look to be the class of the AFC, but there's no question San Francisco will enter the playoffs as the NFL's best team. In fact, there's a chance these 49ers wind up as something more. They enter with the best defense since the midway point, and the pick here is based on the Niners stopping the run, which they do nearly as well as any team in the league. Unlikely I would make this same pick if they meet again, off rest, in the Super Bowl.

As good as the 49ers are, it's worth noting that the Ravens have beaten three other teams in NFC playoff positions (Lions, Seahawks, and Rams), with destructive wins over Detroit and Seattle. Mobile QBs have often given the Niners fits in the past (witness Kyler Murray causing problems last week) and there's isn't a more mobile QB than Lamar Jackson. Baltimore has won six of seven away this season and is 5-0 as an underdog since a year ago, as tech factors suggest this could be a real scrap in Santa Clara. Play Ravens

NFL "totals" sometimes confound; take Sunday, and find anyone who thought Patriots-Broncos would be a higher scoring game than Cowboys-Dolphins. Still, some angles here, as oftentimes in recent years we've seen mobile QBs give the Niners fits, as Kyler Murray reminded again last week when he had the Cards moving fairly well on the Steve Wilks defense in Glendale. And there isn't a QB more mobile than the Ravens' Lamar Jackson, so expect the Niners defense to have its hands full on Monday night. Meanwhile, there isn't a defense in the NFL that can slow Brock Purdy and the Niners, who are tallying better than 34 ppg across the past four wins. Play Ravens-Niners "Over"

Isaiah Likely has started three games since Mark Andrews got hurt, posting 40, 83 and 70 receiving yards. He's gotten 19 targets in those three games, scoring the past two weeks. Last week he was targeted on 21 percent of his routes, a season-high. The 49ers aren't an easy matchup, but Likely's role in the offense is secure.

I'm no stranger to betting on the Niners this season, even when the industry was doubting them during their three game losing streak. While I respect the Ravens, I don't think they are the caliber of the 49ers. As good as the Ravens defense has looked, lately it's only flashed against bad teams (Jags, Chargers and the Bengals with Burrow getting injured in that game). The Rams diced up the Ravens in Baltimore just two weeks ago and I expect more of the same from a more efficient and dynamic 49ers offense. The loss of Keaton Mitchell is important here too as Lamar doesn't have any gamebreakers behind him. It's a big number but I'm going to lay it again.

Gus Edwards got 16 carries last week as Keaton Mitchell unfortunately tore his ACL after nine electric carries for 73 yards. Although the game script won't be the same, I still like Edwards to reach 40 rushing yards against a banged-up 49ers' front. Arik Armstead (foot, knee) is out, and Javon Hargrave (hamstring) is questionable. Last week at Arizona, the Cardinals rushed for an incredible 234 yards and 7.8 yards per carry. That dropped San Fran to 20th in the NFL in terms of yards-per-attempt allowed (4.3).

Six points feels like entirely too many in this matchup. Lamar Jackson is 11-2 ATS when playing as the underdog, and 9-4 straight up. He is not just covering as a dog... he is winning outright! Jackson is also an outrageous 19-1 SU against NFC teams in his career. Ravens players are well aware that they are the betting underdogs, and have already made comments regarding "what happens when people doubt them." It feels as if the general public is ready to crown the 49ers kings this season. The Ravens might have something to say about that. San Francisco's offense has been rolling, but they haven't faced a good secondary in two months. The market is too high on the 49ers.

The only the Niners scored fewer than 28 points this season at Levis =was against the Bengals (the last time they lost and the game before the bye).

Kittle seems to get caught up blocking more on the road and more free releases at home, where the pass rush gets mitigated. Ravens have not faced many top TEs, but Njoku gives them coverage issues and Kittle will too. He converts a lot of busted plays and Ravens are beat up at safety. Kittle averages 5 catches and 80 yards/G at home this season.

Likely has become a trusted target for Lamar with Mark Andrews out for the season and he still loves throwing to the TE. Zay Flowers and OBJ missing practice time and now Keaton Mitchell is out, too, hurting the screen game. Not afraid to throw jump balls and 50/50 balls to this TE. Likely also shows up in RPO game and quick passes will be a must vs this D on the road. Very well will end up leading them in targets and receiving yards.

He's over this in three straight games and overdue for a game where he runs 15 times. This might as well be it. Ravens will have difficulty passing on this group with no tackles and beat up WRs and no Mark Andrews, But 49ers have been very vulnerable against the run and probably a better chance Lamar stays healthy running at them than dropping back a bunch and getting thrown around by the DL. Lamar has to take matters into his own hands to make this offense go and with every injury that becomes more true.

Huge game, shooting for the top seed, with now both of his two speed backs (JK Dobbins and Keaton Mitchell) out for the season. Ravens have leaned more into the option game lately and Lamar loves to keep it and they must run ball 35-40 times to keep this as close as they'd like. He will be under pressure from his suspect tackles and taking off and running a lot. In two games off the bye he has 70 and 97 yards rushing. He isn't sliding nearly as quickly as he was early in the season and in close games he tends to be even more of a runner. He has to be their top producer on the ground at this point

Purdy has a long of 41 yards or more in six of the last seven games. He has an historically high yards/attempt, but we know doesn't need to throw more than 20 times a lot of games to put up big points. Ravens are tops in yards/attempt allowed but their pass rush production is way down and Purdy will have too much time to operate downfield and too many options. Ravens S Marcus Williams is ailing and Marlon Humphrey not having a great season. Purdy will find holes in the zone looks

So many TDs for Deebo lately. He's scored in four straight games, with 8 total TDs in that span. He has scored 2 TDs or more in three in a row. He clearly is seeing plenty of looks in the RZ even with CMC in the offense. His positionless nature will be a problem for this defense, even as good as it is. Has scored in five of the last six games.

Kyle Shanahan isn't afraid of a big load for his RB and that will be the case here. CMC has averaged 142.8 scrimmage yards per game since Week 10 and the Ravens are not a good run D and they also do not defend RBs all that well in the screen game. I see McCaffrey over 100 yards rushing so I don't think we need more than a catch or two to get over this and there will be more than a catch or two

The Ravens havent been in a ton of close games or faced much volume in the run game because of their big leads. But they will here. Ravens are 21st vs the run overall and 28th defending pitch plays (6.1/carry). SF loves to toss the ball to CMC, averaging 5.8/carry on pitch play runs. Ravens will be torqued trying to defend all the weapons in this offense. He's sailed over this number in all but one game since the 49ers got healthy at their bye week

Getting the Ravens and this many points is a gift that will rival any you give or receive during the holidays. Baltimore wields the No. 5-ranked offense and No. 2 defense. (San Fran, by comparison, is second and ninth). The Ravens, with poised QB Lamar Jackson, are 6-1 outright on the road. Rarely underdogs, they have covered in seven of the last nine going back a few seasons when receiving points. Most of the 49ers’ wins this season have happened by double digits, but this opponent is in a separate category. In Lamar we trust.

The Ravens gave up 30 points at home to the Rams off a bye and with just 1 game played in the previous 23 games. Then gave up 188 yards in the first half at Jacksonville but the Jags own foibles (missed FGs, clock issues, ridiculous fumbles) kept them from scoring. But it's fair to wonder if Ravens D has peaked, they are terrible covering RBs in the pass game (31st) and 49ers have CMC and Deebo. If they cant get edge pressure on Purdy he will shred them. Purdy damn near perfect at home. SF has not scored below 27 at home this season with the real MVP, LT Trent WIlliams, on the field. They'll make a statement here

Thought it might take longer for this to get moving but I was wrong. Ravens have major issues rotating LT and RT, and doing that on the road vs this D is a recipe for disaster. Lamar can only scramble so much. Ravens run D has been suspect all year and suffered against far lesser OLs. Don't like this match-up for Ravens in trenches, Van Noy and Clowney slowing down on edge for BAL (25th in sack rate last 4 weeks), and Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey struggling and FS Marcus Williams is banged up. It's not just who you play, but where and when you play them. SF in better health and better form on both sides of the ball.

This is a matchup of the top seeds in both conferences, but it's clear that the 49ers are on another level from the rest of the league. They've won six straight games by at least 12 points despite facing a lot of solid to great teams in that stretch and playing four of them on the road. Baltimore is first in yards per play on defense but has been exposed a bit the last few weeks, including giving up 5.5 yards per play to Jaguars despite the scoring not being there. I don't expect them to slow down the 49ers here, while I can see San Francisco's defense getting some stops with Keaton Mitchell's explosiveness gone from Baltimore's offense. I'd make this line 49ers -6.5.