With Atlanta's playoff hopes and coach Arthur Smith's job potentially on the line, look for the Falcons to take the logical turn and feed their celebrated first-round RB coming off a dreadful performance in a loss at Carolina.

The Colts went 1-2 on key player availability news with their skill position guys. RB Jonathan Taylor is expected back while RB Zack Moss and WR Michael Pittman Jr. will sit. The Falcons' offense has been atrocious, prompting a switch back to QB Taylor Heinicke. Look for the Falcons to stick more than usual to the ground. If Taylor gets his share of carries, a matchup with relatively few passes could result and help toward an Under.

The spread has gotten a bit out of reach on this one amid the news of Atlanta's QB change and a banged-up Colts WR group. Even so, this lines up as a favorable spot on a desperate Atlanta club that is looking to snap a two-game skid and is still clinging to playoff hopes in the weak NFC South.

This line has ballooned up with Michael Pittman ruled out, and there’s no doubt that he’s a key offensive weapon for the Colts. But Jonathan Taylor returns to boost the backfield, and frankly, the Falcons are just massively inconsistent and poorly coached. Getting three points with Indianapolis provides a level of comfort, and it seems the line will drop under a field goal before kickoff. Atlanta is 2-8 ATS as a favorite this season (yes, it has somehow been favored in 10 games), while Indy is 5-2 ATS on the road. If this falls to +2.5, the Colts become a great teaser leg.

I think the Falcons will need to air it out this week, and when they do that London tends to put up good numbers. That was NOT the case last week. Helping the cause is a QB switch to Taylor Heinicke, who over the course of this season has been more aggressive throwing further downfield than Desmond Ridder. Heinicke and London haven't worked much together on game days, but the hunch is the two will connect to top this number. The Colts pass defense has been a mess all season, but in their past two games, Indy's allowed a 72.5% completion rate and 8.7 yards per attempt with 6.9 YAC/reception to opposing passing games.

The Falcons are going with Taylor Heinicke at quarterback, and that's apparently enough to swing this line more than a field goal from where it opened. But I'm not sure he represents a massive upgrade on Desmond Ridder, who has been mostly fine when playing at home. I agree that the Falcons probably should be favored, but this line is going in the wrong direction for me with Jonathan Taylor and surprisingly Michael Pittman trending in the right direction. With those players available, I definitely think Indy is the better team, and I only give Atlanta two points for home-field advantage, so we have value on the Colts at +2.5.

The Colts' previous six wins have come against teams with a combined record of 24-46. Indianapolis has allowed the fifth most points (343), while the Falcons have allowed 278. Atlanta owns a +0.83 net yards per play at home, while the Colts have a -0.15 net yards per play in road tilts. I like the QB switch to Taylor Heinicke in this spot. The Falcons are ranked 3rd in third-down defense and second (tied) in red zone defense. That's a great combo against a QB (Gardner Minshew) prone to turnovers (13). It's the third road game in four weeks for Indy. Atlanta's previous three losses are by a total of eight points. The Falcons are 5-1 in their final home game of late.

played this hunch with MVP Mitch Trubisky vs this defense last week and it hit and could have hit multiple times. Like it for all the season reasons, here. Colts allowed 20 rushing TDs now, 31st in the NFL. Bijan Robinson seems like he might be in the doghouse again and Allgeier is a big back but doesn't see ball around the goal like and Desmond Ridder, the twice demoted starting QB, leads the team with 5 rushing TDs. Heinecke loves to run around off script and will probably let it all hang out here. Could easily see another QB sneak for a score.

Taylor Heinicke takes over as the Falcons' quarterback, and I like Atlanta as a desperate home team trying to save its season. Heinicke has only committed one turnover in 2 1/2 games. The Colts likely will be without No. 1 wideout Michael Pittman, who is in the concussion protocol following a vicious hit. That's a huge loss for Indy's offense as Pittman has 143 targets and 1,042 receiving yards. With guard Chris Lindstrom and linebacker Bud Dupree returning to practice Wednesday, Atlanta should get some reinforcements for this crucial game.

Right now the Colts are playing really well on both sides of the ball. Their defense is solid, and they are able to find consistent success on the offensive side. Their stability and consistency will be more than enough to help them overtake a desperate Falcons squad.