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The GBay D is hunting these days. Plus the Giants plan should be to churn. I’ll bet against the G men converting red zone into TDs.
Reed is either the #1 or #1A target tonight. The Giants blitz and he should get some quick looks with a chance to break one against a zero coverage type look.
Green Bay’s offense has had immense success in big wins over Detroit and Kansas City. With Jordan Love’s confidence up he will lean more on receivers like Romeo Doubbs, especially with Christian Watson out. Take Doubts over in a road spot against the Giants.
The Packers won't have Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, Jaire Alexander or, most likely, Quay Walker. Two other key defenders are questionable. The Giants are off their bye and looking for redemption after multiple disastrous performances in primetime. Look for Saquon Barkley to have a monster workload against Green Bay's weak run defense and for the Giants to keep it close.
Jalin Hyatt is getting the volume. 14 targets in the last four games with eight receptions and over 19 yards per reception. Two catches should put him over this number, which we give him a 70% chance of obtaining. There is no Jaire Alexander tonight which should help Hyatt get at least 3.5 targets.
With Christian Watson out for this game, the primary receivers will be Doubs, Reed and Wicks. Doubs and Reed's props are around 15 yards higher than Wicks, but I think those numbers should be closer as Wicks has been highly efficient on limited targets over the last 4 games (Even with limited targets Wicks has hit this yardage total in each of the last 4 games). With Watson out, I expect the targets to go up just a bit and I expect Wicks to eclipse this low total against an aggressive Giants defense.
Acknowledge improvement on the side of the G-Men, who seem to have rallied around deep backup QB rookie Tommy DeVito and notched a few recent wins. But beating Washington and New England is not quite a buy signal, and not the current iteration of the Packers, who have won three in a row to put themselves in a playoff position. Moreover, The Pack is now 15-0 SU in December for Matt LaFleur, who latest Green Bay edition has picked up steam with Jordan Love now comfy in the pocket, tossing 7 TDs and no picks in the current 3-game uptick. Possible raw weather conditions on Monday night in New Jersey, but Love has dealt with the elements. Play Packers
Saquon Barkley is healthy and rested following the bye, and he should get a huge workload against Green Bay. Opponents are averaging 30.5 rush attempts versus the Packers (4th-most), as Green Bay ranks 23rd in rush efficiency defense and 25th in explosive rush rate allowed. Packers linebacker Quay Walker, who had 13 tackles in last week's win over K.C., is doubtful with a shoulder injury. Look for Barkley to be the focal point and get at least 16 carries.
The Jordan Love hype train is going into overdrive, and I get it. He has turned his season around and it looks like it all might be coming together for him. But it's a lot different for novice QBs on the road, and he's down a top receiver in Watson and could try to do too much here in a playoff push. The Giants have six INTs the past two games, and Wink Martindale will blitz him like crazy and probably force a few jump balls. Love's completion % and INT rate are worse on the road. He has 10 INTs, six in the six away games despite his attempts being way down on the road. This is a big spot for him.
The Giants have allowed 18 rushing TDs (31st in the NFL), while the secondary has been much improved lately and has 6 INTs in the last 2 games. Love is playing great ball, but he's been much better at home than on the road and has averaged just 15 attempt/G away from home. Giants are 30th vs the rush. Love is tied for the team lead with 2 rushing TDs. Aaron Jones is out AJ Dillon has hit paydirt just once. Jones without his best receiving RZ guy in Christian Watson. Unusual spot for young team on road in prime time now under playoff expectations. They should move the ball on this D but are just 20th in RZ scoring. Love is uber athletic. Hmm
Jordan Love has this Packers offense playing really well. Defensively, facing a rookie QB in Tommy Devito of the Giants who takes a lot of sacks, should be able to get the ball back for their offense often. Expect the Packers to not waste the opportunity with the added possessions.
The Packers are heating up after beating the Chiefs in primetime, and that win has inflated their stock to the point it's time to dive in on the other side. Green Bay has avoided turnovers for three straight games, but progress isn't linear, and this Giants defense has multiple takeaways in six of its last eight games. The Giants offense remains a work-in-progress, but they'll have had two weeks to prepare for this game and Tommy DeVito has had some success when not facing the stifling Cowboys defense. The Giants have four wins and are being treated like a winless and hopeless team, but they'll show up in primetime and get the cover here.