Does Justin Jefferson play quarterback? Didn't think so. It's really as simple as I don't believe that Minnesota's Josh Dobbs should be -3 against anyone on the road. Most of the key questionable Raiders have been cleared.

Jacobs should go over this prop unless 1. The Raiders run 15% less plays that projected, 2. He gets hurt 3. LV plays from a sizable deficit. I think the odds are about 75% we go over here

The Josh Dobbs magic appears to have faded for the Vikings, who welcome star WR Justin Jefferson back from injury. It's still a tough spot against a well-rested Raiders club coming off a bye that matches up pretty well with Minnesota.

Raiders cornerback Nate Hobbs notched eight combined tackles in each of his past two games, making him 5-3 Over this prop total this season. He's clearly over the ankle injury that cost him four games. Sunday, Hobbs is expected to match up often with Justin Jefferson. Minnesota's clear No. 1 receiver should be targeted heavily in his return, giving Hobbs more opportunity to rack up tackles.

Hanging on the edge of the AFC playoff picture, the Raiders can be effectively knocked out with another loss. That's coming, but maybe not here, especially as Vegas has been tougher to beat at Allegiant Stadium, where it ahs won four of its last five. Off of a bye week, the Raiders are also off back-to-back losses to the Dolphins and Chiefs, but Josh Jacobs did get going again vs. KC, breaking off a 63-yard TD run. The Vikings are also off of a bye but wobbling, as the Joshua Dobbs magic has run out the past two games vs. the broncos and especially the Bears the previous Monday, with turnover problems now arising. Play Raiders

I figured this would lurch up from the 18.5 where it opened and give us more bang for our buck. And it did. He has routinely been getting 20 carries and in this spot against this opponent, I know Antonio Pierce will have that number in his mind. Never forget this head coach is a former middle linebacker and he has a true workhorse back who was underutilized until Pierce took over. Raiders are 22-7 since Jacobs entered the league (2019) when he rushes at least 20 times. Yeah, the Raiders, at a .750 winning percentage. Over a 30-game sample size. Don't think for one second the head coach isn't well aware of that.

If you've been following my NFL props you know I've had my eye on this Vikings backfield for a few weeks and while we've previously played and cashed Ty Chandler props, I'm headed the other direction. It seemed pretty clear before the bye that Mattison is solidly the RB1 and he gets a nice matchup against a Vegas rush defense that is exploitable. Add to that the Vikings want to protect possessions by limiting Dobbs passes and I think we see somewhere in the neighborhood of 14-15 carries for Mattison (projected for 13.5) and that should be enough to get him to this rush yard total.

How can you not love a kicker revenge angle? Carlson is a former 5th round pick of the Vikings who was dumped after two games in his rookie season after starting out 1 for 4. Since then, he's played in 88 games for the Raiders, going 162 of 182 (89%). Minnesota has allowed 14 made field goals in their last four games combined and this season, kickers have successfully booted multiple three-pointers against them in 8 of 12 games. I'm betting on Carlson to extend the multiple field goal streak against the Vikings this week.

Josh Jacobs gets 48% of all the Raiders touches and that percentage could actually increase as they come out of a bye fighting for their payoff life. They have been better offensively at home and Jacobs could get 25 carries here, and he will break a few and that will take a toll. Minnesota was 11th vs the run from Week 6-12 - as their defense improved - which is good but not ironclad. I'll be looking to play his carries and scrimmage totals over as well.

The Vikings had a nice thing going winning five straight, but then they lost their last two. The last one to the Bears. Josh Dobbs had been making all the winning moves and decisions a seasoned NFL QB would but he had four interceptions in the 12-10 loss to the Bears. The Raiders are playing good ball despite losses at Miami and to the Chiefs who the Raiders jumped out to a 14-0 lead against. Dobbs will press himself to do more than he can. I took the points with the Raiders.

Let's be real about this match-up - Josh Dobbs vs Aiden O'Connell. The Raiders will run the ball until Josh Jacobs legs give out, and play at a slow pace. Raiders defense has been very solid at home and only 1 of their home games has gone over 41 points. Maxx Crosby should be healthy of a bye and Daniele Hunter will wreck some Raiders drives. Dobbs has slumped and in danger of losing his job. Four of last five Vikings road games are 41 or under. MIN second in NFL in offensive TDs allowed between Weeks 6-12. Raiders have scored 17 or less in 3 straight. These teams are 18-6 to the under.

The Vikings will likely have Justin Jefferson back, but it's still going to be an easier test for the Raiders defense compared to facing the Dolphins and Chiefs before their bye. Even so, the Vegas offense put up 6.2 yards per play against a great Chiefs defense but the defense couldn't stop an elite QB. They won't face one here, with the Vikings struggling with turnovers before their bye. With Aidan O'Connell getting extra time to prep and settle into starting role, I'm not sure the Vikings will have the better QB here, and that means they definitely shouldn't be laying 3 on the road. I'd make this line pick 'em.