Pickens will get lots of coverage from the NFL’s worst set of corners. New offense should make sure he gets the ball. Over.

Arizona heads to Pittsburgh taking on the Steelers today and, well, there are some odd matchups in this one. One that sticks out even more should be Kyler Murray on the ground. Murray's legs are already a focal point of the offense but today we could steal a few cheap attempts as well with such a strong pass rush from Pittsburgh. Kyler will get flushed out of the pocket all day long.

Kyler Murray's favorite security blanket has 9 catches on 17 targets over the past two weeks. He would have been WR1 if banged-up WR Marquise Brown and TE Trey McBride were out, but both are expected to play. Even so, the Pittsburgh pass rush should force Murray into quick releases, and Dortch should benefit. There's value on this prop amid the lucrative price.

The knee-jerk reaction to the Cardinals might be "sell" after losing big to the Rams last week. That, however, has been an annual occurrence, especially for games in Glendale since Sean McVay arrived in LA back in 2017. Yet the offense does have a sharper edge with Kyler Murray back in the lineup, and keep in mind the spirited efforts with Murray vs. the Falcons (a win) and Texans (narrow loss), and spread covers in each, before last week. Laying this sort of price with the stagnant Steelers offense looks a bit risky, as even with the recent dismissal of OC Matt Canada, there was no indication the O made any upgrades in that slow-paced win over Cincy last week. Play Cards

This line doesn't add up with George Pickens' receptions line. His reception line is set at 3.5, and the receiver averages over 17 yards per catch, so we're really only looking for 3 catches. Our model projects him for 60 yards against this Cardinals defense.

Last week's Steelers offense may have changed how they throw the ball, but the run game has been churning for weeks. They should again be in a favorable game script against the lowly Cardinals. In fact, no team has allowed more rush attempts per game to RBs this season than the Cardinals, who are getting run on 27.1 times per game! That's a lot, right? Guess what? That number is even lower than what they've dealt with over their past three: 30 RB rush attempts per game! This should be an easy number for Harris to hit in what may turnout to be a rare blowout win for the Steelers.

This line opened up at 3.5 and jumped 2 full points to 5.5 after the Steelers put up 400 yards of offense. This is an overreaction and way too points to trust the Steelers with covering. Give me Kyler Murray and the Cardinals +5.5.

The Steelers finally put together an excellent offensive game last week, which has bumped this spread up a couple points. But it still only resulted in 16 points due to going 1 for 4 in the red zone against an awful Bengals defense. Even if they can find a way to get into the end zone more often this week, they'll need help from the Cardinals to get this over the total, and Arizona is dealing with multiple injuries to its receiving corps. I can't see them scoring much in a tough road environment. This logically should be two offenses that focus on the run game, which should keep the clock moving and help this Under hit.

We are starting see some 6s, so we better go. Arizona could be in deep trouble at wideout with Michael Wilson and Marquise Brown both in doubt. The Steelers, meanwhile, will get Pro Bowl safety Minkah Fitzpatrick back from injury (and nose tackle Montravious Adams). Pittsburgh reached 400 yards last week for like the first time since Jack's cause of death was revealed on "This Is Us." Crock-pot. Really? That Steelers effort was against a good Cincinnati defense and on the road. Arizona's defense is no bueno.

There's a reason why Najee Harris has such a lower return here. I get it. But I see opportunity for both, beyond just Harris plowing over the goal line from a few yards out. First of all, Arizona has allowed 16 rushing TDs this season, third-most in the NFL, and 5 in the last 4 games alone. But they have also allowed 6 passing TDs to RBs, most in the NFL (average of .5/G) and Warren has the upper hand in those looks and his ability to make people miss in space - even tight spaces - has me firing off a play here. He's scored in two of the last three games and is overdue for a receiving TD.

My eyes keep telling me he is going to have more massive games and this speed and wiggle are a problem especially as the rest of the PIT offense evolves. Cardinals are a poor tackling defense and tend to get out of position. Checkdown to him in over-pursuit lead to big plays. He's over this in 2 straight and AZ has allowed 17 passes to RBs to go for 10+ yards; only four teams have allowed more. Warren is that guy in this offense on a day where I anticipate ample targets for him.

Najee Harris is quietly having a solid season and together he and Jaylen Warren make one of the more effective running back tandems in the league. Warrens role and rushing share has continued to increase in recent weeks, however Harris is also performing well and his rushing attempt % has remained secure in Pittsburgh’s high volume rushing attack. Harris has received at least 50% of the teams rushing attempts in all but one game and has eclipsed this line in 7 of the Steelers last 9 games. It’s also worth noting that Harris has had double digit carries in every Pittsburgh victory this season while averaging 14.8 attempts and gone over this line in six of seven Steeler wins.

Arizona is bad against the run and terrible defending RBs in space. And in this offense Warren gets way more looks in the passing game than Harris. Arizona allows 88% completions to RBs (31st) and Warren has unique wiggle and burst. Plus this AZ D is gassed. Cardinals also allow 7.18 yards/rush to the right end; Warren runs right 33% of the time for 7.17/carry. He is Mr. Outside and Harris is Mr Inside and both cash. I like Warren rush total as well but I see a lot of screen action here so prefer the scrimmage total. I am playing him 90+ in scrimmage yards.

Harris has found his footing in this offense and Steelers OL is road grading after upgrading at RT. Cardinals are terrible against runs up the gut (29th in y/carry allowed) and Harris will feast as Mr. Inside against them. They got gutted at home by the Rams and now have to play outdoors against what has become a top 3 NFL rushing attack with two backs getting fed. Harris is over this in 3 of the last 4 games (when the OL changes happened and with 2 heathy TEs now) and I could see him being over this by halftime, honestly.

I see Harris and Warren both eating against this AZ D. Don't try to pick one, ride both. PIT has 125 rushes last 4 games (4th most in NFL), while averging 5.6/run. AZ is most run-on team in the NFL in that span, while giving up 4.6/carry. Gulp. Harris is over this in 7 of the last 9 and even with Harris emerging I see 15+ carries like last week vs. this AZ defense that was on field 35 mins as Rams ran up 228 on the ground. Could be another blowout with a lot of late attempts to bleed the clock.

The Steelers only scored 16 points after firing Matt Canada, but the team gained 400-plus yards for the first time since 2020. It came against a terrible defense in Cincinnati's, but the Cardinals fit the same bill, especially after losing leading tackler Kyzir White to a torn bicep. Arizona just gave up 37 points and 6.9 yards per play to the Rams. Kyler Murray is still trying to master a new footwork technique from OC Drew Petzing; a good portion of Arizona's production last week came in garbage time. All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and nose tackle Montravius Adams are practicing fully after missing four and three straight games respectively.

The Cardinals defense is just about done and they cant score the ball through the air and revisionist history about Kyler Murray being this game-changing force is as stupid now as ever. He has 1 non-garbage time passing TD in 3 games, PIT allowed just 8 offensive TDs last 6 weeks (1st). Steelers run D is elite the last 4 weeks with Heyward back, and Steelers will dominate the NFL's 28th-ranked run D with both RBs. Steelers at 5.6/carry last 4 weeks (2nd in NFL) and Pickett, unlike Murray, protects the ball (no turnovers last 7 games). AZ is NFL's worst 4th quarter team and Steelers shine late. Dome team in Western PA in Dec? Another Cardinals double-digit loss is ahead.