Smith's performance trajectory appeared in decline even before last week's blowout loss to the 49ers in which he was hampered by an injured throwing elbow. He threw for just 180 yards with zero TDs and one INT while eating six sacks. But coach Pete Carroll said the QB's health was a "night and day" difference compared to last week. In what will likely be a trailing game script, Smith should see decent volume in the passing game and he has thrown for two TDs four times this year, including the last time Seattle was locked in a high-scoring affair, three weeks ago against Washington. There is some value on this number in a reachable milestone for the QB.

With Kenneth Walker sidelined because of an injury, the rookie RB earned 14 of the 17 backfield carries in last week's loss to San Francisco. QB Geno Smith's elbow injury clearly hindered his ability to throw downfield, which should make the run game on early downs more of a priority Thursday to prevent long down-and-distance scenarios. Charbonnet also received a handful of carries in extensive garbage time last week, something that could come into play again to help him hit this Over.

Love is the mobile run stopper against a Dallas team that should run plenty. This number has value. Thanks to my fellow experts for turning me on to this play.

He was on the field for over 85% of the snaps in a game where Seattle only had 17 called runs. They ran 12 less plays than projected. And he STILL went over. Over.

Pollard has killed fantasy owners, but ssshhhhhhhh he’s suddenly a TD guy. Seattle gives up a TON of rush TDs. Dallas should get one or two…I’m betting it’s Pollard.

This is a second half bet. Given the likely game script, the Cowboys will look to keep Tony Pollard healthy as much as they can. Our model projects Rico Dowdle to take more weight off of him that oddsmakers expect. We project him closer to 26.5 yards. If you like a healthy Dallas lead, look to invest in Dowdle as well.

Dak Prescott has had an easy time lately sailing over 300 passing yards, but that's mostly been against terrible pass defenses. The Seahawks are no push over defending wide receivers and have been limiting QBs for a majority of the the last couple months. The path to beating Seattle includes running the ball and I think that will be a primary focus tonight for Dallas. Add to that the game script could be very much in the Cowboys favor late in the game, and perhaps, the foot will be off the pedal. Either way, I'll take the under.

Rookie wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba has the best matchup among Seahawks wideouts; he will be covered by Jourdan Lewis, while D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will see DaRon Bland and Stephon Gilmore respectively. JSN grew up 40 minutes from where AT&T Stadium sits, a huge Cowboys fan. Seattle should be in comeback mode, which means more targets for JSN. Look for him to continue his ascent in this homecoming after Commanders slot receiver Curtis Samuel posted 100 receiving yards vs. Dallas on Thanksgiving.

Large spreads are not my cup of tea, but the Cowboys have been so dominant against inferior opponents, they have not just covered large spreads but done so by significant margins. Dallas has been favored by an average of 13.8 points over the last three weeks and won those games by an average of 30 points. Granted, those were three of the NFL's worst teams, but we just saw the Seahawks get annihilated by the 49ers at home in an 18-point loss. Geno Smith is nowhere near 100%, and his talented receivers won't make up the difference against the Cowboys secondary. Kenneth Walker III is still out, too. On the flip side, I don't see how Seattle stops Dak Prescott and the Dallas passing game.

A very stark tech case here for the Cowboys, who are 5-0 at home both straight-up and against the spread, with no Arlington win by fewer than 20 points. Sure, the schedule has broken very well for Dallas, causing some Eagles fans to joke if Rice or Baylor might be on the Cowboys schedule this week. And Dak Prescott is once again piling up stats vs, lesser opposition. Meanwhile, like a year ago when Pete Carroll's rah-rah eventually began to wear thin, similar things seem to be happening, with Geno Smith's leash reportedly getting a bit shorter, while top RB Kenneth Walker III (oblique strain) might be out again after missing the Niners game on Thanksgiving. Play Cowboys

Seahawks safety Julian Love has registered 24 tackles the past three games, and last week he played 47 percent of his snaps at the line of scrimmage. The Cowboys average 68.4 offensive plays at home, fifth-most in the NFL. Dallas also ranks seventh in time of possession (31:39), while Seattle ranks dead last (27:11). Love should have plenty of opportunity to make six-plus combined tackles.

Dallas has allowed only TWO kickers in 11 games to successful kick multiple three-pointers against them. Myers has missed his share of kicks, six to be exact, so even if he gets opportunities, he may not convert. Plus Seattle likely should be in chase mode where touchdowns, not field goals matter.

Pollard is finally getting in the endzone again and Seattle gives up rushing TDs like few others. It's the 29th ranked RZ D and most of the damage is done on the ground. Cowboys OL can bully them. Seattle has allowed 3 rushing TDs in 2 of the last 3 games. They have allowed 9 rushing TDs and 2 passing TDs to RBs in the last 6 weeks alone. No better team to get Pollard a big game heading into a tough schedule stretch before the playoffs at home, getting to play quite likely with a big lead and run, run, run.

Pollard's slump is over. He's scored TDs in two straight. Dak isn't a vulture threat - 2 rushing TD all season - and maybe Dowdle is a little but I think that's more once Pollard has sat for the day. Seattle has allowed 14 rushing TDs, 5th most in the NFL. They have allowed at least one rushing TD in 5 of the last 6 games, allowing a whopping 9 in that span. In the only game they didn't give one up in that span, both Commandos RBs scored on passing TDs. Pollard will get volume doing both and with Dallas RZ offense just 16th, and Dak struggling against this D in his career, they keep it on the ground here. Time to feed him.

I like Pollard to have a game here against the NFL's 20th ranked defense in yards allowed/carry. I wouldn't be surprised if he got up around 80 on the ground. But with Pollard catching 10 balls the last two games and this defense having some tackling issues lately I'm going to jump on this scrimmage total, too. I could really see the offense flowing through him against all that Cover-3 and Cover-6.I see lots of opportunity here. Pollard in a role similar to CMC used to gut these guys on Thanksgiving seems in order.

I'm not sure Pollard hits the 15 carries total if this game gets out of hand and Dowdle gets a lot of run in the second half. But I seer at least another 13 carries like last week and Seattle is allowing 5.0 yards/carry since Week 8 and that defense is wilting. Cowboys run game trending up recently and they want it cranking for playoffs. Dak's struggles against Pete Carroll's defense in his career and I see them going ground and pound. This OL will move people around.

The Cowboys have won and covered three straight and five of their last six but all five of the teams they beat have losing records. Their lone loss over that period was against the Eagles in Philadelphia. In fact, the Cowboys haven’t beaten a winning team all season. They lost at two-win Arizona. Seattle is a winning team (6-5) still despite losing three of their last four. I look for Seattle to give them a game for a while until Dallas gets their defensive touchdown as always seems to happen. I’m on the Over as the top bet.

I think we've got a perfect storm with this Tony Pollard rushing prop as he has been far more efficient and explosive over his last several games and meets a Seattle defense that has actually regressed against the run. Add to that this should be a somewhat competitve game and that Rico Dowdle (who likely plays but could be limited) is still nursing an ankle injury and you've got the factors you need for Pollard to storm past this number.

Wish I had jumped on this earlier, but I'll still lay 8.5 points with a Cowboys team that's been utterly dominant at home. Dallas has won 13 straight home games and is averaging 41 points at AT&T Stadium this season. Seattle welcomes back starting right tackle Abe Lucas, but it won't be enough to slow down Micah Parsons (11.5 sacks) and company. The Cowboys could get a boost with the return of starting safety Jayron Kearse, who missed the Thanksgiving blowout win over Washington with a back injury. Seattle has lost its last three road games, scoring a total of 32 points in those losses, and Geno Smith is either hurt or just regressing. The Cowboys might not steamroll Seattle, but 31-14 feels about right.

The Seahawks have the look of a team that knows its limitations. Pretty pedestrian all around and it’s hard to win when your defense is bottom three on third down and redzone. Dallas might not roll to 40 points at home as they usually do but pencil them in for at least 30. Another opportunity to punch down and they’ll cash in. Geno Smith is looking like a journeyman and his decision-making suffers and he’s not close to 100 percent. Seahawks can’t play from behind but Dallas will make them and Cowboys starting to get run game going now, too. Seahawks have lost 3 straight on the road scoring 29 total points. Dallas margin of victory at home: 20, 35, 23, 32, 35.