Sunday night stands as the Chargers' last gasp at relevancy this season, while the Ravens enter the tilt having lost Mark Andrews but getting two questionable wide receivers back for the game. Baltimore's defense has made its hay against inferior teams, but Los Angeles struggles with above .500 (0-3 ATS streak). The Chargers are also 0-3 ATS as underdogs this year. The Ravens should run up and down the field, and thanks to the Chargers' awful secondary, Lamar Jackson should have little issue making plays with his arm, too. This could start out close, but look for Baltimore to pull away in the second half.

Odell Beckham's targets have started to trend upward as of late and his target share is starting to nearly match Zay Flowers. Beckham has a shoulder issue but if he's active, he should be a full-go against this very porous Chargers defense. An added bonus is that Mark Andrews is out which should mean a few more targets to each of the receivers including OBJ.

The betting public, taking notice of the Chargers' habitually playing in (and mostly losing) games decided by three points, knocked down this line from 3.5. Such moves are often significant, and this one fit right in. Baltimore excels in projected tight games - i.e., with spreads of three or less -- having gone 3-0 outright this season. More important is a contrast in defenses: Baltimore's is one of the best, L.A.'s among the worst. With Chargers' pass rusher Joey Bosa sent to injured reserve, QB LamarJackson could be afforded extra time in the pocket.

There are simply too many issues with this Chargers defense to have any faith in them at home against the Ravens. The Ravens are arguably a Top 2 team in the AFC and will face a Chargers team that doesn't even appear to be intimidating on offense. It's notable that Joey Bosa is on IR which makes things even easier for Lamar Jackson. The Ravens are down Mark Andrews but still have weapons in the passing game and have a dynamic rushing attack. It'll be too much over four quarters for the Chargers.

The Ravens are 4-1 over their past five games, scoring 31 or more in all five. The Chargers have scored 30 or more in three of their five home games. My model has this total at 53.5.

The Chargers have a knack of playing close games...unfortunately they lose too many of those, which has Brandon Staley squarely on the hot seat as November closes. Trends and numbers paint a favorable picture for the Ravens, who are 10-5 vs. the line away since last season, also 5-1 SU, 4-2 vs. spread last six in 2023. As LA is finding too many ways to lose, not reluctant to lay the short price here. Play Ravens

Gus Edwards has become a touchdown machine for the Ravens. He has reached the end zone at least one time in each of the last five games. With 10 total carries inside the five-yard line during that span, he was able to total nine touchdowns. The Ravens should have no problem moving the ball, given that the Chargers have allowed the most passing yards per game in the league. That should leave Edwards with multiple opportunities to reach the end zone.

It’s been tough sledding for Justin Herbert and the Chargers passing offense dating back to week when LA lost Mike Williams. This also happened to coincide with Herbert suffering a fractured finger the following week. Since losing Williams and injuring his hand, Hebert is averaging 238 passing yards. Herbert will face a Ravens pass defense that is surrendering just 201 passing yards per game, is 2nd in EPA allowed per dropback, 2nd in PFF’s coverage grade, and could be getting All-Pro corner Marlon Humphrey back who hasn’t played since Week 10.

Where the Ravens tend to disappoint is when they're facing bad teams and let them hang around. Where they don't disappoint is against teams like the Chargers in primetime. Expect the Ravens to come out firing on all cylinders, looking to extend their lead on the #1 seed in the AFC.

Lamar Jackson won't he running a ton of option plays here, but even with limited designed runs he is going to hit double digits. The Chargers allow 9.4 yards/QB scramble, 30th in the NFL. Lamar is over this in 8 of the last 10 games, and in his first game without security blanket Mark Andrews and with OBJ iffy, I see a run-heavy approach. Even with him looking a little gimpy last week LJ kept running on Bengals, but sliding (cutting down on yardage). Coming off long rest and with a bye looming, I see his legs being a factor here vs. a D that won't be able to contain him all that well.

They want to keep giving us plus money for the guy who keeps closing drives for an offense that is 5th in the NFL in yards per play and has scored 31+ in 5 in a row. He's hit the endzone in 5 straight games with 9 total in that span. Teams live in the RZ vs a terrible LAC defense, so no shortage of opportunities. Chargers have allowed 12 rushing TDs (27th in NFL), allowing 6 in the last 4 games. Ravens will overpower them in short yardage and presence of Lamar Jackson in backfield further complicates things for the perpetually-befuddled Brandon Staley. Ravens seem intent on keeping this streak going.

Ravens don't sustain drives as much these days as they pounce with splash plays. Mitchell is the ultimate splash guy, averaging 10.4 yd/touch. LAC 32nd in plays allowed 25+. We get one of them from Mitchell - and we will - and we are halfway home. Only a matter of time until his targets go up, showing he can take a screen to the house in a limited role. Think of all the chunk plays the Lions got on these guys 2 weeks ago - I see it recurring here.

Chargers run defense looks better than the passing D, but with a bye looming and Ravens without Mark Andrews and possibly OBJ, and still banged up on the OL, I see them running a bunch. Chargers are terrible vs. runs out of 11 Personnel (28th in EPA and y/carry). Mitchell destroys out of 11 despite small workload (10 -153 - TD), better than Gus Edwards does out of those formations. Ravens will run a ton with 2nd half lead and this kid should finally get fed. We have come one carry away from cashing this in the past, but I really like it vs a wilting Chargers D and their bewildered head coach/coordinator.

The Ravens suffered a key injury with Mark Andrews sidelined, but they should remain one of the best offenses in the league as they rank top four in yards per play both rushing and passing. They had 6.8 yards per play in a huge rivalry game despite losing Andrews on the first drive, and the Chargers defense is 31st in yards per play with 475-plus yards allowed four times. The offense has kept the Chargers in games but Baltimore's defense is first in yards per play and yards per pass, so success is by no means guaranteed for Justin Herbert. With little home-field advantage in L.A., the Ravens elite and the Chargers average at best, this line should be much higher.