Burrow has only clipped this number twice this season. Granted, he battled an injury earlier this season and a healthy Burrow has passed this milestone in two of the past three. Even so, he only needed 242 passing yards to beat Buffalo in last year's playoffs. The Bills' run defense can be had and Cincinnati should be run-heavy on early downs and also if it ends up with a working margin in the second half.

Chase has 4 receiving TDs this season and 3 of them came in one game. But the star WR prides himself on stepping up in big games. He had 100 yards and a score last week, and his 46 targets over the past 3 games suggest he should have plenty of opportunities to find the end zone Sunday night.

The Bengals rank 30th in explosive passes allowed as their safeties are a weak point of the defense. Look for rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid -- targeted 15 times the past two games -- to have at least one big catch of 18-plus yards.

While I did not agree with the line moving as much as it did, it has settled in a spot where the Bengals become the right side at home in a primetime spot. Joe Burrow’s improved health has seen the Cincinnati offense take a step forward, and while the defense is still inconsistent, it seems to step up frequently against Buffalo giving Josh Allen problems. The Bills’ ailing defense concerns me against a Bengals offense that seems to have shifted forward after a slow start, and if Allen’s scrambling is contained, I could see a turnover or two before the final whistle.

I love the Bills here with home revenge from last year's playoffs. Buffalo added Rasul Douglas at cornerback, a 1-point addtion to their overall power rating. We are buying low here with the Bills 0-4 ATS their last four games and the Bengals 3-0 ATS their last 3 games. There are only so many games a year teams bring their A-game and I think this is one of them for the Bills. Either way my model has Buffalo winning by three.

Joe Burrow sure looks back to his MVP form during Cincinnati's three-game winning streak, while Buffalo is 1-3 in games played outside of Buffalo (including London) and Josh Allen has much worse away splits. The Bengals are an NFL-best 6-0 since the start of last season against teams at least two games over .500.

The Bills know this offense is not the same without Josh Allen's legs activated and especially against this defense, it will be imperative. Pencil him in for 8-10 carries and at least a few scampers over 10 yards. He's also far and away their best red zone runner and he is the guy who finishes drives. I have played this up to plus money in alt markets (40 yards and above) in several parlays.

Rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid has been a force since Dawson Knox hurt his wrist, catching 13 passes for 140 yards the past two weeks. One big weakness of this Cincinnati defense is at safety, and as a result the Bengals have given up the third-most explosive pass plays. In a high-scoring affair, look for the 6-4, 240-pound Kincaid to post at least 40 receiving yards.

Given the current form of both clubs, the Bengals are the clear side in this one. They have won three straight, two of them by 14, while growing into peak form. The Bills have won two of three, squeezing by the Giants and Bucs while losing to the Patriots. This is a bad spot for Buffalo and the ML price is affordable enough to skip laying points.

The Bengals have won five of the last seven meetings with the Bills and covered the last three. The Bengals have won their last three capped off with a 31-17 win at San Francisco. Joe Burrow looks healthy as are his two star receivers and they have lost time to make up after an 0-3 start. The Bills haven’t covered the spread in their last four games and are still apparently hungover from London. I’m on the Bengals to win and cover..

Allen's rushing numbers are way down this year compared to previous seasons. I think the dip in production can largely be attributed to a shoulder injury that Allen sustained early in the year. Allen appeared to be close to 100% last week and finished with 41 yards on seven carries. He displayed his trademark toughness and willingness to take a shot and give a shot. We're getting a healthy discount on this line, as well. Allen also tends to play hero ball in primetime, and considering this matchup is against another elite team, I expect Allen to be aggressive. I think he'll rely heavily on his legs in what projects to be a high-scoring prime-time shootout.

The Bills have been hit or miss this season, while the Bengals are looking like one of the best teams in the NFL after embarrassing the 49ers and winning 3 straight. That said, Buffalo tends to play down to down to lesser teams like the Jets and Patriots but come out swinging in high profile games (hello, Miami week 4). Additionally, it’s the first regular season matchup since Damar Hamlin collapsed on the field. I expect a lot of pomp and circumstance and an emotional win for Buffalo as they are desperate for a “ statement win”.

Now that some money is coming in on the Bills it's a good time to grab Bengals ML at a very reasonable price. The Bills looked pretty good last week against the Buccaneers but the Bengals will give them, specifically their defense, a host of problems. The current Bengals winning streak can be largely attributed to Joe Burrow's health as the calf concerns appear to be gone (he was extremely efficient against the 49ers with his arm and he added 43 rushing yards). In that same game, we even witnessed Joe Mixon finally run with some efficiency. The Bills tried to add at the trade deadline but they don't have the pieces to contain the Bengals in Cincinnati.

): Injuries to the Bills cover linebackers and secondary have created a big problem, and they have allowed the eighth highest passer rating in the NFL since Week 5 when the injury bug really struck. Burrow is in rich form and as healthy as he’s been all season and has all of his top receivers going. Joe Mixon has been marginally better lately but I don’t think they want to take the ball out of the QBs hands here. He has a 118.8 rating the last three weeks and prime time will bring out the best in this passing attack.

Tee Higgins is coming off a solid outing against the 49ers where he appeared to be at full strength. We're getting a hefty discount on his receiving yards after Higgins struggled to start the season and then suffered a rib injury that clearly was plaguing him. After having the entire BYE week to get healthy and putting together a quality outing I believe we'll see Higgins return to a full time role and getting his line under 50 yards in what projects to be a high scoring affair between two very good offenses is a must play spot for me. Look for Higgins to get on a roll as he's playing for a new contract.

The Bengals offense and Joe Burrow looked fully back in a dominant win over the 49ers, and that's moved the line four points off the lookahead. But Buffalo's offense also got back on track last week, with Josh Allen rushing for 41 yards after four straight under 20. That unit is top three in yards per play, third down success rate and red zone success rate, and the Cincy defense gave up 8.2 yards per play to San Francisco despite the win. This has the makings of a shootout, but three points should be the ceiling for this line, putting value on Buffalo.