The Rams are nearing full strength with Cooper Kupp back in the lineup, while the Eagles are coming off a far-less-dominant-than-expected win over the Commanders. Still, Philadelphia is the play here as its superior ground game should get mostly whatever it wants against LA's porous front, and its pass rush should be able to knock Matthew Stafford off his spot. What the Rams have done early this season has been impressive, but I have a couple points of value with this sliding under four. The concern (as always with Philly) is a backdoor cover, but scared money don't make money.

The Rams have been quite a nice surprise so far this season, everyone pretty much left them for dead yet here they are. That said, the trust in the run game isn't where Sean McVay wants it and the more Matthew Stafford is putting the ball in the air, the more it will come down in the wrong hands. Philly might snag more than one today, especially if they can start hot.

In Week 2, the Rams were +7.5 or +8 in a similar spot against the 49ers. Of course, performance-based adjustments to power ratings have kicked in and the surprising Rams have earned some respect. Even so, there is implied value on an Eagles club that should be prepared for a focused effort after barely getting past Washington last week.

Eagles/Rams over 50.5. Both teams have well above average offense with below average defenses. The Rams are averaging 288 passing yards a game while Philly allows 261. The Eagle offense is very well balanced and the Rams allowed 30 points to the 49ers the only team they've played so far that is equal to the Eagles. My model has this total at 54.5.

This is the best coaching job by Sean McVay so far in his impressive career. But last week we saw Matt Stafford get banged up (hip) against the Colts, and don't expect this Eagles defensive pass rush to let up on him even without Fletcher Cox. He'll take a lot of sacks in this game, or will throw the ball away often. Eagles offense will pounce on the opportunites.

Perhaps no offense has enjoyed such sustained excellence as much as Philly's. The Eagles have exceeded 400 yards gained in 13 of their last 21 games, including the most recent three. The Rams might be able to keep pace with the likely return of WR Cooper Kupp off injured reserve. QB Matthew Stafford has turned unsung rookie WR Puka Nacua into an instant star. Now with Kupp in the mix, it could be en embarrassment of riches for the veteran. The Eagles' defense has yielded the sixth-most yardage per game, and their nine TD throws allowed is third most. A shootout at SoFi could ensue.

Through four games in 2023, Jake Elliott has received at least three field goal attempts in each and converted a minimum of two per game. He's 13 of 14 on the season and looks to keep it going against a Rams defense which has surrendered multiple field goals in three of four games. I'm playing this prop against Los Angeles for the third straight week (1-1 record) and I feel more confident with the NFL's scoring leader guided by a potent offense to get his share of opportunities on Sunday.

The Eagles remain undefeated despite struggling with bad penalties and very avoidable mistakes. I like this matchup for them in one of the easiest environments to play in when it comes to a 'road' game in the NFL. The Rams' defense is at a major disadvantage on the ground, as they rank 28th in defensive rush EPA. Philly is the best team in the NFL in terms of rushing success rate. My simulation number sits at -6, which is the exact lookahead number from earlier in the season. Lay it with the Eagles; this game will play more like a neutral field contest

The Eagles remain undefeated despite not having looked like the juggernaut they were last season. One area they've excelled in has been their ground game. With D'Andre Swift dominating touches, Philly ranks second in EPA per rush, first in run block grade and first in rushing success rate. The Rams are 28th in defensive EPA per rush, which should allow the Eagles to control this game via their rushing attack. Rams starting offensive linemen Alaric Jackson and Joe Noteboom were unable to practice Wednesday, suggesting a banged-up Matthew Stafford (hip) will again be playing behind a makeshift line. Cooper Kupp practiced on a limited basis Wednesday, but it's unclear yet if Kupp will play. Lay the points at this deflated number.

The Eagles escaped with a win against the Commanders but should've never needed overtime to get there, as they dominated in yards per play but struggled with bad penalties, especially on third down. I didn't dock them at all for the close call, unlike the market, which is two points off the lookahead after the Rams also needed OT to beat the Colts. This is a much tougher matchup for L.A., particularly in the trenches. While I'm worried that the Rams can backdoor a cover with their great passing game, Matthew Stafford got dinged up last week and struggled to keep it close against another elite team (the 49ers) a few weeks ago. Expect a similar result here.