CJ Stroud has been unbelievable, but in his young career Atlanta's Desmond Ridder has much better home splits. Houston struggles to stop the run and that's right up the Falcons' alley. This almost even feels like a bit of a letdown game for the Texans.

Rookie QB C.J. Stroud has exceeded the wildest expectations, with six TD throws and no picks so far. He has accumulated 970 passing yards the past three weeks behind a makeshift line. With elite OT Laremy Tunsil likely back for the first time since Week 1 and right OT Tytus Howard joining him, Stroud can light it up here. (Concerns do remain at LG). Falcons QB Desmond Ridder, dreadful in road games, is unbeaten in four starts at home in his brief career, with four TDs and a nearly 68 percent completion rate. Houston has registered 67 points combined in its two latest outings. If Ridder stays on form at home, the Over is gettable.

Bijan Robinson only needed 14 carries to accumulate 105 yards against the Jaguars in Week 4. That marked his second game of at least 100 rushing yards in the early going of his rookie season. With Desmond Ridder struggling at quarterback, the Falcons want to run the ball as much as possible. The Texans have allowed 4.4 yards per carry, which is tied for the ninth-highest mark in the league. Combine that with Robinson averaging 6.0 yards per carry and I like the over.

I played the Falcons on the money line -125. HC Arthur Smith loves the power running game and Houston struggles to stop the run. My model has the Falcons by four.

Desmond Ridder might have temporarily saved his job with a long scoring drive in the second half of last week's loss to Jacksonville, but the club might be better served by at least giving backup Taylor Heinicke a look. Even so, this rates a strong matchup for the run-heavy Falcons against the league's worst run defense. The Texans have earned some respect in the market but they should be a bigger underdog Sunday.

If you're looking at box scores and and win columns you'll notice that the Texans are running hot while the Falcons have cooled significantly since a 2-0 start. I'm happy to take the unpopular team here as I think the Falcons will dominate with the running game. While CJ Stroud and company have been great, they do meet a formidable secondary in Atlanta which will give Stroud some trouble. I expect Ridder to be a non-factor as usual, but I don't think it will matter. The running game and defense secure the win.

Houston plays heavy zone defense designed to take away big plays, not that Ridder is making many big plays these days anyway. In fact, of 34 QBs who have thrown 40-plus passes this season, Ridder is 11th lowest in pass attempts of just 10 or more Air Yards with a 50% completion rate, a 9.9 yards per attempt average, and most importantly, one touchdown. Heck he has just three passing touchdowns on the year, which is one more than Houston has allowed all season! And what happens if the Falcons hit halftime and they bench Ridder for Taylor Heinicke?! It's obviously a risky bet but with nearly two to one odds, I love the rationale.

Over his past three games Smith has had target shares of 20, 21 and 20%. He's running short routes and is an easy target for Desmond Ridder. The Texans allowed a catch rate of 89% over 18 total targets to the Colts and Jaguars' tight ends in Weeks 2 and 3 with 9.9 yards per catch and 7.2 yards after catch per reception. These numbers were the byproduct of the zone coverage Houston played against both of those teams. They are expected to do the same this week, making Smith a good option. And get this: His over/under is a yard higher than Kyle Pitts' over/under!

As good as Robinson has been, he has yet to score a rushing TD (one receiving). He had been the OROY favorite but has fallen behind CJ Stroud ... whom (who? infer? imply? tomato? tomatoe?) so happens to be across the field Sunday. You don't think Dirty Birds coach Arthur Smith wants to "pimp" his rookie with his first rushing TD? I like this quite a bit against a bad Houston run defense, but I never recommend over-betting player props because it's often out of their control, injuries, blowouts, etc.

Desmond Ridder has eclipsed this total in three straight, but each time the game script had the Falcons trailing big. This should be a tight game throughout, if not Atlanta in the lead. Ridder is facing a Texans' defense that can't stop the run, so you know Arthur Smith is going extremely run-heavy Sunday. Per PFF, Houston owns the worst rush defense and ranks second to last in tackling grade. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier should carry the load, limiting Ridder's attempts and yards.

As bad as Desmond Ridder has played, he's 4-0 in his home starts. This is a good matchup overall for Atlanta. Houston owns the NFL's worst run defense, per PFF, so the Falcons should have success with their running back duo. The lookahead line for this game was Falcons -3.5. C.J. Stroud has been a revelation, but I think the adjustment has gone too far given Atlanta's much-improved defense. Look for the Falcons to improve to 3-0 at home.

Remember when the Bills were favored against the Dolphins last week and no one could figure out why? This is the same situation, albeit with a much less explosive offense. The Texans are a good football team, earlier than people expected. But the Falcons aren't trash, even if the results the last two weeks have been pretty bad. Desmond Ridder and Arthur Smith are on the hot seat to a degree, with people wanting Taylor Heineicke and Smith's playcalling at least in question. I think they bounce back here in a surprising spot at home as favorites and the defense shows up in a big way while Ridder moves to 5-0 at home.