There are some pretty funny memes going around of a picture of Kyle Shanahan and his family, but one of his kids has Sean McVay's face superimposed on it -- because Shanahan's Niners have won six straight against McVay's Rams. I expect that to end here, but I have to take the points. Not sure how much of a home-field advantage the Rams will have as there are tons of Niners fans at the game. Part of me wants San Francisco to reach the Super Bowl just to see whether the team would keep Jimmy Garoppolo around. I'd still guess not unless he wins it.

A streak is a streak until it’s ended, and that’s what will happen Sunday night when the Rams and Sean McVay finally get over the hump against the 49ers and Kyle Shanahan. Don’t get it twisted: San Francisco beat Green Bay last week solely because of a significant special teams disparity and Aaron Rodgers’ poor play. The last time these teams played, Los Angeles led by 17 before collapsing with Matthew Stafford throwing two interceptions and San Fran winning in OT. That won’t happen again. The Rams should be able to get significant pressure on Jimmy Garoppolo, limiting the 49ers offense enough to cover and advance to a Super Bowl in their own building. Still, wait until close to kickoff and see if you can get -3 without the hook.

The hook on this spread has hung around all week. Given the recent trend of buzzer-beating field goals, it could come into play. However, the Rams were built to serve as Super Bowl hosts in their stadium this season and, despite San Francisco’s six-game winning streak in the series, are the superior squad. The tale of offensive LTs is telling. The 49ers’ Trent Williams either will play with a bum ankle or sit. The Rams’ Andrew Whitworth returns after resting his 40-year-old body last weekend. San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo is a cut above mediocre when healthy, and various ailments hampered his throws a week ago. If Williams is out, he will be ducking for cover. Counterpart Matthew Stafford is a half-mile better and, with receivers and RBs galore, should pile up enough points for a cover.

The Niners have beaten the Rams six straight times, so why is L.A. favored by more than a field goal? The idea that it's hard to beat a team three times in one season is not backed by data: NFL teams looking for a three-game sweep in the playoffs have gone 14-8. A majority of both tickets and money are on the Rams at -3.5, and that line that hasn't budged all week. But there's value in backing Kyle Shanahan (7-3 all-time vs. Sean McVay) and a good Niners defense against an L.A. All-Star team that's prone to turnovers, nearly blowing it last week even after Bucs injuries seemed to set everything up in the Rams' favor. Grab the points with the team that's had the upper hand in this rivalry since 2018.

Do not mess with a good thing. The 49ers have had the best of the Rams the last few seasons, and they're fantastic as underdogs under Kyle Shanahan. Los Angeles has a terrific defense, but it also had favorable matchups in its first two playoff games against a one-read Arizona offense and a Tampa team without Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown. The 49ers have a plethora of options, and can counter any move the Rams make. That's why they've had so much success against them, and will continue having it on Sunday.

I think this will be a tight, defensive game. Both defenses are good. Most importantly, San Francisco will try to control the clock with its dangerous running game, which should eat up the clock and shorten the game. Three of the last four meetings between these teams stayed Under this number, and those games were not played under the crucible of the playoffs. I'm bullish on the Under.

A week ago, I took San Francisco against Green Bay and said the 49ers were my pick to win the Super Bowl. While I was correct on the game, I'm backing off San Francisco to win it all. I just don't like the way that quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has been playing; I think he will cost them this game. Meanwhile the Rams have a good defense and a quarterback, Matthew Stafford, who's finally getting his chance to shine in the playoffs. I love L.A.

The 49ers have won six straight meetings against the Rams. Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay know each other's tendencies well. The Week 18 meeting saw the 49ers win in overtime, 27-24, after being down 17-0. The home team has won only six of the last 11 NFC Championship games. This is a new pressure spot for an old QB with Matt Stafford. 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo is 15-4 ATS as an underdog, including both wins against the Rams this season. I think the 49ers will control the game with the run frustrating the Rams again. Take the 49ers to cover.

The Rams almost blew it in the Divisional Round against the Buccaneers and that's exactly why I'm taking them right now. Yes, I know the history between these two head coaches and the record on Kyle Shanahan's side...but that comes to an end Sunday. Los Angeles' offense is both explosive and extremely balanced at the moment, a tough blend to find, and with last week's scare this team (and play-calling) got the point. Keep. The. Foot. On. The. Gas. Pedal. We'll get just that Sunday from the Rams and with two massive motivational reasons too. Sean McVay to prove himself against Shanahan and a Los Angeles team that has leveraged it's entire draft future for this moment right here, right now. Not to mention a home game in the Super Bowl. Matthew Stafford knows it's now or never as well, Rams roll.

The 49ers head to L.A. to try and earn a third win over the Rams to reach the Super Bowl, and a big reason why they're still alive is the play of the defense. Just one 49ers game since Week 14 has gone over 44 points, with San Francisco giving up no more than 307 yards in any game during that stretch. The last game between these teams ended up 27-24 but the Rams had just 265 yards of offense in that game. With Jimmy Garoppolo beat up and coming off a game where San Francisco scored zero offensive TDs, this seems destined to be a low-scoring battle between two teams that know each other well.

The 49ers ran the ball 75 times in their two wins over LA this season, and I think that formula still applies. San Fran's running game not only keeps its defense fresh and limits opportunities for the Rams' vaunted pass rush. It generates explosive plays via Deebo Samuel. The 49ers' defensive front mauled the Rams' offensive line and picked off Matthew Stafford four times in the two meetings, so I expect Sean McVay to lean on his running game. San Fran won't be dumb enough to blitz Stafford, which is when he really excels. Getting over a field goal in a game that could be a slugfest is too good to pass up.