The Bengals enter on a 6-0 ATS roll with a three-point win against the Chiefs earlier this month and a 5-1 SU mark in their last six. So why are the Chiefs favored by twice as many points (7 vs. 3.5) as their last meeting? In addition to getting homefield this time, Kansas City is healthy with its offense back at full speed. Cincinnati's protection problems and inability to stop the run are going to put the entire game on Joe Burrow's back. He's already one of the best QBs in the NFL, but that's too much to ask from him against against an opponent like this. Tyrann Mathieu (concussion) will play; KC's secondary operates much better with him on the field. The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS when favored by 7+points since the start of December and 8-2 ATS overall in that span. KC has a coaching edge and is stronger in the trenches. And that's not even mentioning Patrick Mahomes & Co.

I’m banking on the Bengals attacking the Chiefs' secondary and running very little. You can’t beat Kansas City by running. Buffalo would have won last week if it started assaulting the Chiefs' secondary earlier than the fourth quarter. Kansas City has gone Over in its last seven games, scoring 42 points in each of its playoff contests. The Chiefs will score plenty, I‘m sure, but the Bengals have to contribute, and I believe they will. The Over is the play.

My theory: This spread is not higher because the public is swayed by last weekend’s four down-to-the-wire games. The Chiefs have won their last two AFC finales by double digits, and both opponents were superior to Cincy. The Bengals own the better defense, but the edge is mitigated by K.C.’s unparalleled playmakers, who can strike at any moment. How can the visitors, having scored three TDs in two playoff games, keep pace? As gifted as QB Joe Burrow is, he has suffered 62 sacks (including playoffs). The Chiefs have covered in a half-dozen consecutive home gigs. They have a single ATS defeat in the eight most recent matchups against foes with plus-.500 records.

Remember earlier this season when the Chiefs weren't a juggernaut and we were all wondering what was wrong? Had Patrick Mahomes lost his mojo? Was he hurt? Was the world ending? It turns out a team that replaced its entire offensive line just needed time for that offensive line to get acclimated, and once it did, the KC Death Star was engaged once again. Cincinnati's been a great story, and Bengals fans should be optimistic about the future of the franchise. But the Bengals aren't ready for Kansas City yet.

I like the Chiefs for the same reasons I liked them last week: Patrick Mahomes, who is as talented as any quarterback to ever play the game, throwing to Tyreek Hill deep and Travis Kelce short. I also think the home field advantage will end up being a huge edge for Kansas City. Some people question how the Chiefs will rebound after last week's draining win, but I trust Andy Reid will have them ready. I'm high on Kansas City.

This total seems far too low. These teams played in Week 17 at Cincinnati and scored a combined 65 points. Last week the Chiefs scored 42 points against arguably the best defense in the NFL. I think Joe Burrow and the Bengals will put up some points too. This number seems too good to be true. Give me the Over.

This spread finally got to 7.5 and now I'm ready to play Cincinnati. I don't think the Bengals are nearly as good as the Chiefs and worry big time about a Cincinnati offensive line that allowed nine sacks to the Titans, but I do think -- even in an AFC title game -- the Chiefs are due a minor letdown, at least for a while, off that incredible comeback win over Buffalo. The Bengals are playing with house money and have to feel confident after beating KC in Week 17. Joe Burrow is 5-0 SU & ATS in its past five starts, and he and Ja'Marr Chase have yet to lose a postseason game together dating to their LSU days (i.e. including bowls and the SEC title game). If Buffalo's Gabriel Davis can get four TDs on the Chiefs, Chase could set records. Oh, and I traded Chase during my fantasy rookie dynasty draft (hey, he had the dropsies in the preseason) for Chase Claypool and two first-round picks. OOPS!

The Bengals have found ways to win despite a crumbling offensive line that got Joe Burrow sacked nine times last week, but I'm optimistic he'll deal with less pressure this week, as Kansas City ranks 28th in adjusted sack rate. The Chiefs defense has been pretty bad down the stretch in non-Steelers matchups, including allowing 34 points and 475 yards against Cincinnati in Week 17. Even with Tyrann Matthieu's expected return, I think Burrow is capable of going toe to toe on the scoreboard and keeping this game close in the final moments. Since I'm more comfortable playing Cincy at +7.5 than K.C. at -6.5, I have to roll with the 'dog here.

The Bengals are plus-4 in turnover margin in two playoff games, and they'll need that good fortune again Sunday to knock off the Chiefs. I love that the Chiefs lost to the Bengals a few weeks ago; it ensures K.C. will be 100 percent focused despite its epic win over Buffalo. In that first meeting, the Chiefs were in control until a blizzard of penalties (some questionable) and a Ja'Marr Chase explosion turned the tide. No way I would lay more than a touchdown here, given all of Cincinnati's weapons, but I do think this lethal K.C. offense will be too much. That, plus the coaching edge, homefield advantage, and some of that Bengals' luck running out.

Care to know a secret? Through ten playoff games so far, all ten teams that won the game covered the spread as well. Yes, there have been a few underdog outright wins to help that number, but historically it holds up...to the tune of 31 of the previous 34 NFL playoff games. I'll ride that train and since I believe Kansas City wins the game, so to I'll ride them to cover as well (and get the number at 7 in case it moves to 7.5). The Chiefs are deadly at home in the playoffs and have covered six straight at Arrowhead this season. Cincinnati is a good team and Joe Burrow is the truth, but their last three opponents have scored 21 or fewer in all three...and I don't think it's because of a particularly staunch defense. The Chiefs are on a mission and I'm happy to ride along.