Taking Matthew Stafford over Tom Brady in a playoff game? It certainly doesn't feel right, but nobody's invincible, especially when they're missing a Pro Bowl right tackle. Maybe Brady -- at age 44, without Tristan Wirfs and with Ryan Jensen on a gimpy ankle -- will be able to avoid Aaron Donald and Von Miller and make more postseason magic. But I'll go with the team that doesn't have a ton of injury issues, already proved it can beat the Bucs this season and is getting points. Grab the 3.

I bet the Rams for a couple of reasons, starting with the fact they've beaten Tom Brady and Tampa Bay each of the last two regular seasons. They have an effective pass rush with just four guys, and they'll make Brady uneasy again. They brought in Von Miller, who kept Brady nervous throughout in the 2015 AFC Championship Game while with Denver. The Rams have won six of their last seven games and WR Odell Beckham Jr. has had much more of a positive impact than I expected. Take Los Angeles to cover.

Points were hard to come by in Saturday’s twinbill, so let’s keep the Under train rolling. On the injury front, 40-year-old Rams OT Andrew Whitworth (knee) will miss the rare game in which he’s not the oldest player. Buccaneers OT Tristian Wirfs and C Ryan Jensen, both Pro Bowlers, are iffy with ailing ankles. NFL elder Tom Brady, 44, was under siege at times last week and could feel the heat from ferocious pass rushers Aaron Donald and Von Miller. He could stick to the most recent game plan with short, time-killing throws. Tampa Bay yielded the fifth-fewest amount of points in the regular season and could bedevil Los Angeles QB Matthew Stafford.

If you told me a year ago I’d be siding with Matthew Stafford over Tom Brady in a playoff game, I’d never believe it. And yet, here we are backing the surging Rams visiting the defending champions. Yes, Tampa Bay has Brady and will be getting Leonard Fournette back, but it has lost key playmakers. Los Angeles is also surging at the right time. The difference comes up front as the Rams monstrous defenders will make life difficult for Bucs’ line. Brady can beat LA over the top, but Stafford can do the same as he excels against pressure. Tampa Bay has not faced a quality opponent in over a month, while LA has survived tough tests down the stretch. The Rams are 2-0 ATS/SU as an underdog and 4-1 ATS/SU between -3 and +3 this season, so I’ll have a sprinkle on LA straight up as well.

I like the way the Rams are playing. They blew out Arizona on Monday and have won six of their last seven games with their only loss coming to the 49ers. With all of the acquisitions the front office made in the offseason, this team is built to make a run in the playoffs. Remember, the Rams handily beat the Buccaneers earlier this season. I think Aaron Donald & Co. get to Tom Brady a couple of times. This pick may surprise some people, but I love L.A.

If you are a Bucs backer, patience has paid off as this spread has dropped under -3, at least at Caesars Sportsbook, so we will jump on it. At 3.5, I'd take Los Angeles but it isn't getting there. I absolutely think the Rams can win this game and frankly I'm probably rooting for that but let's just say I trust Tom Brady slightly more than Matthew Stafford in a big game. Brady can pick apart that short-handed secondary where Kyler Murray couldn't. The Rams are 2-5 ATS in their past seven vs. teams with a winning record. And don't forget they are on a short week plus traveling across country. Sometimes the little things add up.

I have concerns about both offenses in this matchup. Tampa suffered a couple of injuries to its offensive line last week and we saw Tom Brady get battered around because of it. How will that same line hold up against this Rams front? On the other side, while the Rams are much better-equipped to attack Tampa's defensive deficiencies than the Eagles were, I don't trust them to play nearly as well on the road and on grass as they do indoors at home. This won't be a shootout.

Bucs All-Pro right tackle Tristan Wirfs is dealing with a high ankle sprain, making it unlikely he suits up against Von Miller, Leonard Floyd and Aaron Donald. Tampa Bay center Ryan Jensen is expected to play through his own ankle injury. Either way, this matchup sets up well for a Rams team that's peaking at the right time. LA has won six of seven, the loss coming in OT to the 49ers, and just added stud RB Cam Akers to its potent attack. We all know about Matthew Stafford's turnover problems, but one area he has excelled in is against the blitz. The Bucs blitz at the highest rate in the NFL and I don't expect Todd Bowles to change his approach much at this point. If corner Sean Murphy-Bunting (hamstring) can't go, Stafford should pick apart this secondary.

The Rams ran the ball all over the Cardinals, but they'll now face a Bucs rush defense that showed up in a big way against the Eagles. Matthew Stafford will have to make some plays in this game to advance, but he's been an enigma for much of the year, throwing four pick-sixes and eight interceptions in all on his side of the field. The Rams rolled in the first meeting between these teams, but the Bucs are stronger in the secondary this time around, particularly if Sean Murphy-Bunting can play. The Bucs have OL injury issues, but if you can trust any QB to compensate for that, isn't it Tom Brady? Look for Bucs -2.5 and grab it if it becomes available.

It's a cliche at this point to say this game centers around Tom Brady but we're looking to the other side of the ball this time. Los Angeles boasts a front good enough to get after Tom Brady, something he hasn't seen in a month, and Tampa has some serious offensive line issues coming out of that win last week over Philadelphia. Los Angeles has a new spark back in Cam Akers and this Rams offense is good enough to balance out a tough Tampa defense. Couple that with Brady already 0-2 in his Bucs career against LA and Sean McVay is 12-3 (3-0 this season) in the Eastern Time Zone. The Bucs boast a 38% blitz rate (2nd highest in the NFL) and usually it's where they find their defensive success. The problem is Matthew Stafford is lethal against the blitz, 17 TD's to just one INT this season. When not blitzed those numbers shift to 26 TD's and 16 INT's. Neutralizing the Tampa DL and OL is an equation I'll buy into, give me the Rams plus the points.