The Bills have hit their stride over the last five weeks, but they've surged against terrible teams and a Patriots squad that had no business being in the playoffs. The Chiefs, meanwhile have been a completely different team since finding answers on defense. Kansas City is on streaks of 10-1 SU and 7-2 ATS, achieving both by toppling a number of top teams. This is going to be a hotly contested game that could go either way, but the Chiefs defense and home-field advantage -- plus edges on special teams in the kicking game, on the sideline with Andy Reid and on the field Patrick Mahomes -- have me backing KC. While I'm not fretting about the half-point given I have the Chiefs as -3.5 at home, it is to your benefit if you can grab -1 ahead of kickoff.

As everyone braces for a shootout, here is a semi-contrarian view. The Bills’ defense remains top-ranked even while displaying some slippage. The Chiefs’ D, though rated low, has made sufficient repairs to raise itself to a decent level. Since these teams combined for 58 points in their Week 5 clash, standout Chiefs DT Chris Jones has returned from injury and ace pass rusher Melvin Ingram was acquired from Pittsburgh. Half of Buffalo’s games this season have gone Under. The Bills tend to prevent big plays, which is Kansas City’s specialty.

The Bills have won and covered their last five games and carry all kinds of momentum. While it doesn’t take away from the fact that the Chiefs have won 10 of their last 11, it has me thinking more that this might be like when the Bills won 38-20 at Kansas City in Week 6. They look like they’re fully back after a mid-season hiccup. Take Buffalo to cover.

I originally liked the Bills in this game, but I changed my mind to Kansas City. Too much is being made of Buffalo's win over the Chiefs earlier in the season. Kansas City was playing poorly back then. But the Chiefs have won 10 of their last 11 games with the only loss being a three-point defeat at Cincinnati. Bills quarterback Josh Allen played a near-perfect game last week at home against New England, but I don't trust him doing that again -- this time on the road. Give me Kansas City.

There is a lot of support for the Bills. Not so fast. They faced a plethora of subpar quarterbacks and played the easier schedule (ranked 16th to Kansas City’s fourth). I just can't get the fact out of my head that Buffalo lost to the Jaguars. The Chiefs are 10-1 straight-up in their past 11 games, holding opponents to 16.5 points per game. The Kansas City fans will be loud, making it very difficult for Josh Allen to improvise, which he does quite often. The Chiefs went 7-3 straight-up and 6-4 ATS against winning teams, while the Bills went 2-3 straight-up and ATS against winning teams. I love Andy Reid and the Chiefs in this rematch.

No one looked better than the Bills last weekend, as they wiped out a solid Patriots team by 30. However, teams that win by 28 or more in the playoffs are just 6-14 ATS the next week. The Chiefs, moreover, are a different team than the one that faced Buffalo on Oct. 10. For one, their defense is healthy. Chris Jones, Charvarius Ward and Melvin Ingram weren't on the field that night. And Patrick Mahomes isn't forcing as many throws. K.C. was minus-4 in turnovers in that 38-20 loss, something that's not likely to happen again. With the Bills missing Tre’Davious White, look for Mahomes to put on another show as K.C. advances.

Did the Bills peak too early? They played about as perfect a game as possible in trashing New England in the Wild-Card Round, but facing Mac Jones in Buffalo compared to Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City is just slightly different. Now we'll see how much the loss of All-Pro cornerback Tre'Davious White will hurt the Bills. The only very good QB the Bills have faced since White was lost for the year was Tom Brady in Week 14 and the Bucs put up 33 points.

Both these offenses are coming off incredible performances in the first round of the playoffs, even if it took the Chiefs a quarter to get going. The Bills dominated the regular-season matchup but are unlikely to go +4 in turnover rate again. If the Bills can get to a lead, an emerging rushing attack can keep Patrick Mahomes off the field by pounding a bad Chiefs rush defense. But this feels like the game where not having Tre'Davious White will doom the Bills; they allowed 488 yards in a loss to the Bucs soon after his injury. With Tyler Bass struggling with kicks last week, the Chiefs may also have the edge in the kicking game. I like K.C. at anything less than -3.