Tennessee gets a big boost on offense with the return of Derrick Henry, and its run game was steadily consistent during his absence. The question -- and potential problem -- for the Titans is whether QB Ryan Tannehill can make enough plays if the Bengals are able to stop the run. I don't think he can.

As it appears this line will go up (not down) ahead of kickoff, it's time to jump on the Titans and not wait for the hook to disappear. Tennessee enters with all the external advantages, including the bye (Mike Vrabel is nails with extra time to prepare in the regular season) and homefield advantage, which is more valuable in the playoffs. Getting Derrick Henry back against a Bengals team that allowed 7.4 yards per carry to the Raiders last week is a boost, especially coupled with the A.J. Brown and Julio Jones being active. The Titans are healthy, rested and home. Joe Burrow has been incredible lately, but look for Tennessee to limit his big plays with Ja'Marr Chase and pull away in the second half.

The Titans are getting Derrick Henry back for this game after the rushing attack did a solid job staying afloat without him, while the Bengals lost a key piece of the defensive line with Larry Ogunjobi's injury. Cincinnati's pressure rate drops nine points to 26% when Ogunjobi isn't on the field, so expect Ryan Tannehill to have time to throw to his receivers. The Titans defense can get consistent pressure without blitzing, and I think they have a major edge against the Bengals' offensive line. This Titans team is battle-tested with eight wins over winning teams, and with Mike Vrabel's excellent track record on long rest (8-0 SU and ATS), the Titans are the play for me.

The Bengals have covered the last four meetings with the Titans, winning three of them, the last coming last season in a 31-20 Bengals home win. I like Cincinnati's momentum. The team has covered its last five games with Joe Burrow playing at a super high level, and I think that carries into this week and possibly all the way to the Super Bowl. Pass rusher Trey Hendrickson is cleared to play. I took the points with the Bengals.

Derrick Henry, AJ Brown and Julio Jones haven't been on the field much together this season due to injury, but when they have Ryan Tannehill has been one of the NFL's highest-rated QBs. They are all healthy for Saturday, and the Bengals' run defense has been awful in the past two games -- that D is now without a key guy up front in Larry Ogunjobi. Meanwhile, no QB was sacked more than Cincinnati's Joe Burrow during the regular season, and the Titans are the only team with three players having at least eight sacks (Harold Landry, Denico Autry, Jeffery Simmons). I'm not touching 3.5, though, so moneyline it is.

With all signs pointing to running back Derrick Henry playing on Saturday, the Titans have all of their big-play guys back. That includes receivers A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. I also love Mike Vrabel as a coach. Tennessee already has beaten Kansas City and Buffalo this season, and I would put those teams on a level above Cincinnati. I'm confident in the Titans.

Doubling down on the Titans, as I believe they will dominate in the trenches. I've also bet Tennessee on the full-game spread as well as -2.5 in the first half. Mike Vrabel is a perfect 8-0 when his teams have had eight or more days of rest. And this is a very dynamic offense with Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones all healthy. With Brown and Jones on the field, Ryan Tannehill averages over 9 yards per attempt. Back Tennessee to look like a No. 1 seed and end the Bengals' Cinderella run.

I don't trust the Titans. I haven't all season, and I'm not ready to start now. Particularly in the role of favorites. They've done an incredible job of getting the No. 1 seed in the AFC considering all the injuries they've suffered, but I don't think that happens if they play in any other division. The Titans went 5-1 against the AFC South and 3-3 against the rest of the AFC with some confounding losses. I look at this matchup and I see a Bengals team that has the advantage at QB, as well as other key spots offensively, so even if the Titans win, I expect it to be a close one.

Incomparable running back Derrick Henry appears poised to return from a length injury layoff, but he is as much a bonus as a necessity for the rolling Titans. They have done A-OK without him. The Bengals’ impressive rush defense will be compromised by injuries to several defensive tackles. They would be right in Henry’s path, so he can make hay even without the usual full load of carries. As complements, receivers A.J. Brown and Julio Jones offer a 1-2 punch -- or more like a 2-3 punch behind Henry. Going with a team off a bye can backfire, but Henry’s likely return clearly benefits Tennessee.

It looks like this line has a better chance of hitting 4 than dropping to 3, so I'll play it now. AJ Brown and Julio Jones are good to go and that makes all the difference for Ryan Tannehill. The veteran QB also will benefit from a ground game that gets Derrick Henry back; the Titans should run effectively against a Cincy defense missing Larry Ogunjoby and Mike Daniels. Joe Burrow will be facing the toughest pass defense he has seen all season. The Titans allowed the third-fewest explosive plays in the NFL, faring well against other top QBs like Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford. Tennessee, which can get pressure without blitzing, beat Kansas City, Buffalo and the Rams despite not having No. 1 CB Kristian Fulton. He's back now. Back the AFC's top seed to cover.