Apologies for the late pick, but a massive storm blew through here and knocked out power -- and I don't live far from Tampa so the game absolutely would have been delayed if a couple of hours later. Anyways, I was going to pass here but now that it's down to -7 I think at worst we push.

Value and protection (9.4% of NFL games end on 7) has finally been created for the Buccaneers in a home spot against an Eagles team that has mostly beaten up on lower-tier opponents this season. Tampa Bay is down three key playmakers but still has its three most important in Tom Brady, Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski. It also has a coaching edge with Bruce Arians. Philadelphia went 0-6 (1-5 ATS) against teams in this year's NFL Playoffs. The weather also appears to be cooperating for the Bucs, which should have one focus on Sunday: stop the run. Do that and Tampa Bay could win this by double digits. A teaser with the Chiefs (-12 to -6) could be another attractive option if wanting action on both games.

This is a mismatch. Tom Brady and the reigning Super Bowl champs are just too good for Philadelphia. They're experienced, they have the greatest quarterback of all-time and they have the pieces on defenses to slow the Eagles' run game. This one won't be close.

If the Eagles struggle and fall behind -- and there's a strong possibility it happens -- that'll put them in a position where they're forced to throw the ball, and they aren't good at it. Of the 14 teams to reach the postseason, only Pittsburgh has a lower passer rating than the Eagles. Still, while I don't have the highest of hopes for the Philadelphia offense, I'm not ready to lay 8.5 points with Tampa, either, so instead the under seems like a smarter play. The fact current forecasts are calling for winds of 20-plus mph in Tampa on Sunday doesn't hurt my confidence, either.

The Eagles have a top-four offensive line, which helps lead Philadelphia to a 4.9 yards per rush average. The Eagles also own the better special teams unit, which could be a factor in the rain/wind. A cold front is scheduled to sweep across Tampa right about game time. The forecast calls for rain (0.50 inch) and very windy conditions (20-30 MPH, with gusts near 40 MPH) so the underdog gets the call in this one. Tampa Bay went 1-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the regular season. Down to the wire!

Philly, the NFL's top-ranked rushing team, will not abandon its approach even though the Bucs’ run defense is No. 3 in the league. The past three games in which the Eagles deployed their starters (i.e. not Week 18) resulted in combined points scored of 36, 44 and 44. Tampa Bay’s offense is more productive than those opponents, but rain and projected wind speeds of at least 20 mph in Tampa on Sunday could impair the passing even of Tom Brady.

The Eagles are a tough team to trust; they have just one win over a team with a winning record (Saints) and this will be the playoff debut for both Jalen Hurts and Nick Sirianni. The Bucs are of course the defending champs with the GOAT at QB. But this shapes up to be a close game. The Bucs had no trouble beating the Panthers twice down the stretch but were shut out by the Saints and barely topped the Jets as they deal with key absences on offense. Bad projected weather could make this a favorable game for the Eagles rushing attack, and the vaunted Bucs rush D ranks just 15th in yards per rush allowed. Philly might be a live 'dog here.

I certainly didn't expect to be writing about the weather in Tampa this week -- I live not far from there -- but yep, it's going to rain all day Sunday apparently with winds between 20-30 mph and higher gusts possible. That's pretty unusual this time of year. The Eagles will want to chew clock as it is with their No. 1 rushing attack and keep Tom Brady off the field. This total is starting to dip already, presumably due to the weather, so we will grab it now.

The Eagles only lost by six in the regular-season meeting, but that was a misleading final score. The Bucs outgained Philly 399-213 and took a knee instead of scoring at the end of the game. Leonard Fournette and Lavonte David returned to practice Wednesday, providing an additional boost after the team activated Shaquil Barrett from the COVID list. Inclement weather could conceivably help the run-first Eagles, but I still like Tom Brady's short-passing attack to control this game. While Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown won't be on the field, it should be noted that Rob Gronkowski missed the regular-season meeting. As long as the Bucs' O-line, which features three Pro Bowlers and allowed an NFL-low 23 sacks, holds up against Philly's front four, Tampa should win by 10.