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I'll bite. Can we get 3 TD's from each team tonight? I think so. I realize there is inclement weather but that plays on the defense, too. Jimmy Garoppolo is fighting for his NFL career...likely somewhere else, but I like a guy with his back against the wall here. The Colts are averaging 27.6 PPG over its last three and Carson Wentz is playing his best football all season. Might not be a game to make the end of season highlight reel but I'll take my chances under that key number of 42.
It appears as if the hook is about to disappear, so let's grab it while we still can. The 49ers have not proven much of anything this season. All they can really say is that they've played good teams close. The Colts, meanwhile, have covered four of their last five with Carson Wentz appearing to have found some confidence while battling through injury. With George Kittle out for San Francisco and T.Y. Hilton back for Indianapolis, the playmaking advantage goes to the visitors. The only pause I have is that the 49ers are coming off a bye, but that's not enough to get me to back them.
Definitely not giving 3.5 but also think the Niners win, so here we are on the moneyline. While Indy may be getting Pro Bowl guard Quenton Nelson back, the Colts have a lot of other injury issues. Yes, the Niners are without Pro Bowl left tackle Trent Williams but are pretty healthy otherwise coming out of the bye. With rain and wind, the weather definitely will be a factor. That favors the 49ers in my mind over the "indoor" Colts.
This is Carson Wentz’s team now. They play with grit and effort like he does but are only 2-4 so far. But on the happy side, they’ve covered four of six. The 49ers will start Jimmy Garoppolo and are 1-4 ATS with a bunch of injured RBs. This should be another gritty, low-scoring game, so I’ll take the points knowing that Indy has the better O-line and feature back. The Colts also have the QB who doesn't throw picks. Colts to cover.
The Colts have shown to be a team that can run the ball with Jonathan Taylor and defend the run, as they rank first in DVOA rush defense. They also have a quarterback who isn't turning the ball over, as Carson Wentz has thrown just one pick in 193 attempts. Those are great attributes for a team getting ready to play what could be an ugly weather game out west. The 49ers have had an extra week to prepare, but Kyle Shanahan is just 2-2 ATS off the bye. I believe that rest factor is why this line is a bit higher than it should be, and I'm happy to take that value with the Colts.
The Colts want to run the ball to setup play-action passing. The 49ers' strength is their run defense as they haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 25 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the NFL. San Francisco has two weeks to prepare for a hobbled Colts team in this prime-time affair. East Coast teams playing in prime time (8 p.m. ET or later) on the West Coast have been a solid play-against, as the West Coast teams are 52-29-6 ATS. The Colts defeated Houston 31-3 last week and outgained the Texans by just a 388-353 mark. The Colts have a huge division game against the Titans next week. Take the 49ers in a great spot play.
Inclement weather plus injuries hampering both offenses equal a low score. Indy QB Carson Wentz will miss WR Parris Campbell and possibly WR T.Y. Hilton while working behind a banged-up line. For San Francisco, with QB Trey Lance hurting, Jimmy Garoppolo gets the call despite an ailing calf. A rare storm in drought-ridden California could be the defenses’ best friend.
My spies tell me that Jimmy Garoppolo had a good week of practice. He and the 49ers are coming off their bye week, and I'm expecting a big performance against a Colts pass defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league. I'm on San Francisco.
Playing against Kyle Shanahan as a sizable favorite often works out: he's 5-12-1 ATS when laying more than a field goal. This Colts' offense has looked good with a healthy Carson Wentz. He has six TDs and no INTs over his last three games, with Indy scoring 83 points in that span. Indy averages 4.7 yards per carry for the season. The 49ers won't have George Kittle for Jimmy Garoppolo, returning from a calf injury, to lean on. Trey Lance (knee) looks unlikely to be available, hurting the offense's versatility in short yardage. Left tackle Trent Williams (ankle, elbow) did not practice Wednesday. Take the points with the underrated Colts.
From the looks of it, we will more than likely see Jimmy Garoppolo back under center for the 49ers. Whether it's him or rookie Trey Lance, I don't see the passing game being effective in this matchup. Also, I like how the Colts offense is finding its balance and rhythm. Expect a rough game back for Garoppolo and for the Colts to be in prime position to get a road win.