A Lions upset wouldn't shock me here but I see a 3-point loss, thus the moneyline. Detroit's offensive line is a mess with Taylor Decker still not back and Frank Ragnow out for the season. The Motor City Kitties also have issues at receiver. Joe Mixon is playing for Cincinnati and that was the clincher for me.

The Lions have lost 13 of 14 home games, including the last six. They also have a mediocre pass defense that allows 251.6 passing yards per game. That bodes well for the Bengals and quarterback Joe Burrow, who has thrown for multiple touchdowns in each of his first five games. Bengals cover.

Win or lose, the Bengals have been involved in close games. In fact, four of their five contests have been decided by three points or fewer. Expect that to be an issue against a Lions team that's hungry for its first win of the season. Take Detroit, which already has one home cover this year against an AFC North team in Baltimore.

At some point, a winless team suffering a series of close, agonizing defeats might throw in the towel. Too early for that, and the Lions could be waving celebratory towels Sunday. Their previous three outings have produced 38, 36 and 36 total points. If the low-scoring pattern continues, the spot of more than a field goal is magnified. Cincy’s offense is crippled by the absence of RB Samaje Perine (COVID-19), who would have spelled Joe Mixon (ankle). Under coach Zac Taylor, the Bengals are 1-4 ATS as a favorite.

The Lions are better than most 0-5 teams are thanks to their offense, and they shouldn't be underdogs at home to this Cincinnati team. The Bengals have put up good defensive numbers, but they've benefitted by playing bad offenses in Chicago, Pittsburgh and Jacksonville. It also didn't hurt that Green Bay scored only two touchdowns in five red zone trips last week and missed three field goals. I'm taking the points, but that Lions money line looks nice too.

The Bengals have proven to be one of the better teams in the AFC, despite their age. They can score with the best of them, and can play any type of game you want offensively. The defense is both active and aggressive, and will find a multitude of ways to the QB. The Lions are a scrappy bunch that plays hard for coach Dan Campbell, but injuries are starting to mount. It may too much for them to overcome in this game.

The winless Lions return to Ford Field for their only home game in a four-week span. They are playing hard and will continue to play hard as they love their coach. Top offensive tackle Taylor Decker should come off IR. The Bengals are coming off an emotional OT loss against the Packers. Teams are just 1-3 SU after playing Green Bay this season. The Bengals' three wins have come against clubs with a combined 4-11 record. Take the Lions plus the points and try a slice on the money line!

The Bengals have played the second-easiest schedule. Even though they're 3-2, they've become extremely predictable on offense. According to PFF, they run the ball 80 percent of the time when Joe Burrow lines up under center. And they have a coach who gets conservative with a chance to put games away. The Lions could get left tackle Taylor Decker back this week, along with another key contributor or two. Obviously desperate for a win, Detroit should keep this one close.

Both these teams are coming off heartbreaking losses, but both were also outplayed pretty thoroughly and a bit fortunate to be in it in the end. This is a pretty awful spot for the Bengals, coming in here as road favorites of over a field goal and expected to win before facing the dangerous Ravens next week. People don't expect the Lions to be competitive based on the talent level of the roster and they go out and surprise most weeks, and Dan Campbell appears to be the type of coach where the players will fight for him rather than check out during a lost season. Has Cincy earned this kind of respect on the road already? The value's on the Lions here.