Derrick Henry rushed for 182 yards against the Pats, then 192 against the Ravens, and now he's facing the NFL's 29th ranked rush defense by DVOA (and in 15 degree weather) with Chris Jones expected to play only a limited role. Of course, it's not hard to envision Patrick Mahomes having a big day, as well, but when two good teams are matched up and one is getting a full touchdown, I'll take the seven points.

I'm taking a little bit of a punt here, as I believe the Titans and Derrick Henry will provide a lot more trouble for Kansas City than the spread and this moneyline suggest. At +265, the Titans only need to win this game a little more than 27 percent of the time. Tennessee wins this game closer to 40 percent of the time than 25.

In a game that features Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense, it's somewhat incredible to think that the game will come down to Chiefs run defense, but that's exactly what will decide this game. The Chiefs have been poor against the run this season, but that problem has been masked late in the season when it has been facing poor rushing teams. That will not be the case on Sunday against Derrick Henry and the Titans. The Tennessee offense will lead to a cover at a minimum.

One thing that's been overlooked, at least somewhat, in the lead-up to this game is how well Tennessee's offensive line is playing. The run-blocking has been elite, helping Derrick Henry put up historic numbers. Chris Jones (calf) won't be 100 percent even if he plays, so I expect the Titans to stay in it against the 29th-ranked rush defense by DVOA. Grab the points.

Tennessee's offense ranked No. 1 in the NFL over the last eight games of the regular season, averaging 5.1 yards per rush and 8.9 yards per pass. The Over was 7-1 in Tennessee’s final eight games of the regular season. Meanwhile, Kansas City's offense is at full strength with Patrick Mahomes under center and scored 51 points last week against Houston. And while it will certainly be cold in KC, there will be very little wind. Take the Over.

The Titans' story has been great, but this Chiefs team is a different animal with a 7-0 ATS mark since Nov. 18. (Tennessee was the last team to beat them on the road the week prior.) Only once this season has Kansas City won a game and failed to cover. The Chiefs defense has stepped up in a major way since that loss, and while it may not be able to silence Derrick Henry, it should force the Titans to throw more. Patrick Mahomes will win any air-it-out battle, and I trust the veteran Andy Reid in a key spot over Mike Vrabel, despite Reid’s relatively poor record against this franchise. Seven points in an AFC Championship Game is a big spread, but I believe the Chiefs are the eventual Super Bowl champions and have been proving their greatness all season.

The Titans' defense has been amazing in the first two playoff games on the road, at New England and Baltimore, which was aided by Derrick Henry churning the clock on offense. I expect the Chiefs to get a full dose of Henry here, but the Chiefs' quick-strike ability has me thinking this will be a high-scoring game like the Nov. 10 meeting when the Titans won 35-32. Ryan Tannehill’s Titans are an Over team. I’m on the Over.

As much as the Titans will want to come into Arrowhead and dictate the tempo and pace of the game with their ground attack, Kansas City's improved defense will get Tennessee to break tendencies at times, putting the ball in Ryan Tannehill's hands often. On the flip side, the downfield pressure of the Chiefs' passing game could be just enough for them to cover this spread. Take Kansas City.

Your default position on lines this big in conference title games should be to take the underdog, which is 10-3 ATS in the last 20 years when the spread is seven-plus points, unless you have a great reason not to. And as awesome as the Chiefs offense is, their questionable rush defense (29th in DVOA and yards per attempt) matches up perfectly for the Titans to keep this game close. The stats say these teams are pretty close in general, and my projection has the line at Chiefs -1.5 on a neutral, so I think we're getting some solid value with Tennessee here.

The Chiefs' 24-0 deficit to Houston last week was fluky. When they got going, they were unstoppable. They put up 51 versus the Texans and they'll get in the 30s against Tennessee. With Patrick Mahomes in total control, Damien Williams has scored four touchdowns the past two weeks, and Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are rolling. This is the Titans' fourth straight road game; that will take its toll. Lay the points.

It might come as a surprise that four wild-card teams have survived three road games to reach the Super Bowl. However, all were storied franchises — the New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, New York Giants and Green Bay Packers — and most were led by accomplished coaches. Not that Tennessee and coach Mike Vrabel are slouches, but it’s a big ask for the Titans to maintain their lofty level. Since K.C. lost to the Titans 35-32 in QB Patrick Mahomes’ return from an injury hiatus, the Chiefs are 6-0-1 ATS. The visitors have all of 154 net passing yards in the playoffs in a one-dimensional offense featuring incomparable RB Derrick Henry. That cannot continue indefinitely. QB Ryan Tannehill must play a bigger role for another upset, and here is doubting the offense he operates can keep up with the Chiefs’ scoring machine.

The last team to beat the Chiefs was Tennessee, and the Titans are better than they were in the Nov. 10 meeting. Derrick Henry has had one of the best consecutive three-game runs in NFL history and all three were against AFC division winners. The Chiefs' defense is not the ideal squad to slow Henry down. I’m on the hot Titans to keep rolling in the AFC Championship Game.