Public perception of these two teams could not be any more opposite. The feeling on the Warriors is that they're some kind of top-tier title contender but quietly they limped home losing three of their last five games and did most of their post-Jimmy Butler trade damage against a soft schedule. Meanwhile, everyone acts like Memphis is in the tank because of the weird coach firing, but this is a supremely talented team that is going to be playing with its hair on fire. Golden State may win, but seven points is way too much in what should be a one- or two-possession game either way.

Only the Utah Jazz allowed more wide-open 3-pointers (nearest defender at least six feet away) than the Grizzlies, who surrendered over 22 of these premium shots per game this season. With Memphis focused on Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler, Moody is going to get his share of open looks. I'm betting he can knock down at least a couple of them.

Moses Moody has played extremely well down the stretch of the season and he's going to see plenty of shots with the Grizzlies tracking Stephen Curry with multiple defenders and sinking down on Jimmy Butler drives. I like a big game for Moody.

The Warriors won three of four regular-season meetings and get to host this Western Conference Play-In game. They're 23-7 with Jimmy Butler in the lineup. But in a vote of SportsLine Discord members, 63 percent favored Memphis to cover the spread. The Warriors are 0-3 all-time in this event. And if the Grizzlies' big three of Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane are clicking, they could potentially win straight-up. To join the Discord, click "Join Our Community" from the SportsLine homepage.

Though they maybe could have used a few extra days off, the Sunday loss to the Clips might work out for the Warriors, who get the playoff-new Rockets if they win this play-in tonight, as opposed to Denver had they beaten the Clippers on Sunday. Though the Dubs were blasted 144-93 by the Griz way back on December 19, they won the other three meetings this season, and December was long before Jimmy Butler showed up for Golden State. The Dubs were a different team thereafter, and as long as he's good to go after clashing knees with Kawhi Leonard late on Sunday, the dynamics favor the Dubs, especially as Memphis looks a franchise in transition after the recent dismissal of Taylor Jenkins. Play Warriors.

The Memphis Grizzlies blew out the Golden State Warriors on December 19th, 144-93, but the Warriors came back and won both meetings in 2025, including the latest one on April 1st, 134-125. The Warriors have won and covered the last two meetings, with both getting over the total, something that looks similar to what I think is going to happen tonight. The Grizzlies won four of their last six games, but they're missing something since firing head coach Taylor Jenkins nine games ago. The Warriors lost the last game of the year to the Clippers and are relegated to this play-in tournament, but they'll be fine with Jimmy Butler playing well. They've won 23 of his 30 games. Warriors win and cover.

This line is steaming down for good reason. Defense is effort, and Memphis is a team that can turn that on when necessary, especially when they let Steph Curry drop 52 on them earlier. The Warriors have been locking down defensively as well in recent weeks, and only allow 107 PPG since Jimmy Butler joined the lineup.

Zach Edey shouldn't lose many minutes here. Guys his size are often relegated to the bench in games that become three point shootouts but Edey has shown he can play in that style with a respectable 34.6% 3pt percentage on just under 1 attempt per game. All we are doing is projecting him for a normal offensive output as he averaged 9.2 on the road, and even put up 10 in recent matchup with the Warriors.

This is a big line for Brandon Podziemski who has appeared in 0 playoff games and just a single Play-In game. We know that in the playoffs teams typically play slower and games feature fewer possessions. I also expect the ball to in the hands of Steph and Jimmy quite a bit and Podz usage may decrease tonight. Either way this line feels a point or two too high.

Jimmy Butler can be passive at times during the regular season. That’s not the case when he gets to the playoffs. In three of his four playoff runs with the Heat, he averaged at least 22.2 points per game. In two of those, he averaged at least 26.9 points per game. With the Warriors playing for seeding against the Clippers on Sunday, Butler scored 30 points over 48 minutes. Another stat working in Butler’s favor is that the Grizzlies played at the fastest pace in the league this season. When he played them earlier this month, he scored 27 points. Take the over for him in this rematch.

FanDuel. Scotty Pippen Jr. has played an integral part for the Grizzlies this season. Shuffling in and out of the starting lineup, based on Ja Morant’s availability, Pippen Jr. has cleared this points line in ten of the last 13 games Morant was active. The matchup against the Warriors is favorable, as it lends to Pippen Jr. needed on the floor. The Grizzlies will be without Jaylen Wells, leaving Pippen as the best option to matchup against Steph Curry. And with the Warriors employing more small ball lineups, the Grizzlies can afford to play more Morant-Pippen Jr. lineup combinations. I think the minutes will be there for Pippen, and he’s cleared this line in 16/18 games with at least 22 minutes, with a healthy Morant.

Grizzlies rookie Zach Edey has seen his minutes increase significantly under interim coach Tuomas Iisalo, who loves Edey's relentlessness on the glass and the way his screens free up Memphis' scorers. Edey faced the Warriors on April 1 and grabbed 16 rebounds in 32 minutes. He played well against Golden State in two other games this season, too. Edey's minutes also have risen due to Brandon Clarke's season-ending injury. In six April games, Edey has averaged 15.7 rebounds. With the Warriors giving up the third-most rebounds to opposing centers, I bet Edey to grab 11 or more rebounds in Tuesday's play-in game.

The Grizzlies firing their head coach did nothing to fix their season or improve their inept defense. Give me Steve Kerr in a one-off with time to prepare to destroy a defense. Warriors hung 134 at Memphis on April 1 and scored 121 or more in 3 of their 4 meetings this season. The Grizz allowed 118/G over their final 10 games and were 24th in points off turnovers allowed, 19th in fastbreak points allowed and 27th in opponent foul shots attempted in that span. Steph Curry and Co know how to get to the line when it matters and their passing and spacing game is a big problem for the young Grizz. Distinct lack of hustle and cohesion from Memphis far too often lately.