After playing Miami and Cleveland in the first two rounds, the Celtics will feel like the restrictor plate has been taken off their race car. Indy simply is a bad D team and Brown should thrive

I project McConnell to play about 18 min suggesting he will need to average a point, rebound or assist each minute he plays. Too tall of an ask. Under.

Indiana comes off a game seven and tough series. The total is rather high so there should be a lot of points and the line suggests this could be a blowout, so if that happens, the Celtics bench will see an increase in minutes. Payton Pritchard is averaging 23 minutes in the playoffs and Indiana struggles containing shooting guards. Pritchard has scored 10 points, or more, in four of the last five playoff games.

Tyrese Haliburton is one of the best passers in the league. However, he’s only had 9 assists, or more, in three out of the last 10 playoff games. Haliburton has also gone under eight assists in four of the last five games and went under in game one in both the Bucks and Knicks series. Boston is much healthier, and better defensively, than both of the teams the Pacers have faced thus far.

Boston has won its two Game 1s by 45 points so far, defeating Miami by 20 and Cleveland by 25. More of the same here. The Pacers have seen the bracket break their way to make it this far, but they're outmatched in this series big time.

There isn't much value here, but this is close to a lock. This line should actually be "attempts a 3" rather than makes one. McConnell likely won't even attempt a 3, and if he does, he's not a good bet to make it.

My guess is Jrue Holiday starts on Haliburton, but individual matchups are overrated. Boston will switch everything, and all of Holiday, Tatum, White and Brown will see time, often in the same possession, on Hali. Constantly running into another great defender will wear Hali down, as will playing in the half-court all night because Indiana won't be able to stop Boston consistently.

TJ McConnell has been a major contributor and a big reason why the Pacers find themselves in the Eastern Conference Finals. That being said, I expect his numbers to dip against an elite Celtics defense. McConnell plays between 18-22 minutes a game and because hes ball dominant the Pacers do not have him closing games or playing alongside Tyrese Haliburton very often. McConnell also gets a lot of his production in transition and Indiana has been able to dictate the pace in both of their series. Boston has an elite transition defense and I think the Celtics will also control the tempo and limit McConnell's effectiveness as a result.

Pacers could not stop two opponents who were compromised from a health and scoring perspective and now it gets real. IND has the worst road Def Rating of all 16 playoff teams (124.3). Through 7 road playoff games they are 13th in def reb %, 11th in 2nd-chance points, 15th in oppo 3pt% (40!) and 15th in points allowed (116/G). Boston is way fresher and IND allowed 121 to the beat up Knicks in Game 1 of last series. Legs weary after 7 games and a natural emotional letdown here. Celtics can run with Pacers, and will keep pushing vs opponent that can score quicky. They send a message here. Dopped 155 and 129 on them at home in regular season

As four of the five regular-season meetings between these sides ended up with scorelines 234 or higher, clearing this low 220s number doesn't appear that daunting...even if the Pacers don't shoot another 67.1% from the floor as they did in the Game 7 win over the Knicks on Sunday. The challenge for the Indiana defense is going to be facing a near full-strength Boston after dealing with the no-Giannis Bucks and the banged-up Knicks. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum preclude foes from overloading defenses on one or the other, while Tyrese Haliburton had some big nights the other way vs. the Celtics this season. The two most-efficient NBA offenses are likely to send upcoming "totals" higher as this series progresses. Play Pacers-Celtics "Over"

Myles Turner is Evan Mobley here. Except even better, Boston's defense will be paying less attention to him than they did Mobley. And if Mobley was able to put up almost 20 points a game in that series, if not more, I think a confident Myles Turner can eclipse 15.5. He's gone over this number the last three games and five of the seven against the Knicks. The SL model has him projected for almost 18 points. With no Kristaps Porzingis in Game 1, this could be the time to buy in on Turner.

The Pacers are healthy and play at a fast pace, so this could be the Celtics’ most competitive series of the playoffs. The Celtics are also still without Kristaps Porzingis (calf) for the beginning of the series. Since he went down, Jaylen Brown has scored at least 25 points in four of six games. During the regular season, Brown scored at least 25 points in four of five matchups with the Pacers. The only game that he didn’t saw him play just 25 minutes in a 51-point win for the Celtics. With the expectation that the Pacers keep this game relatively close, take this over for Brown.

The Pacers give up the most points to opposing shooting guards (24.1), just one reason that Game 1 sets up well for Derrick White. It should be played at a fast pace. White has opened each playoff series with 20-plus points, as it's natural for opponents to gameplan against Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. White is averaging 18.2 points in the postseason. He averaged 16.0 points against the Pacers in the regular season, but his minutes have gone up since then.

The Celtics have used long layoffs to their advantage to start each of their series and I expect that to be the case here as well. They won those games by 20 and 13, the Pacers just played 7 games and have played 3 more than BOS in the playoffs. BOS is deep and guys like Hauser and Pitchard can mimic McConnell. IND has played beat up teams and struggles in road (5-8 ATS last 13) and BOS blew them out a few times in regular season. Ten of BOS last 11 home wins are by 10+ point. Had best home +/- in regular season. Four of IND road playoff losses by 9 or more. They will be running on fumes relative to BOS