The Bulls went 3-0 against Miami this season and were shorthanded in one of those games. Miami is 9-24 against-the-spread against teams with a losing record. That is very telling. The Bulls and Hawks are built similarly, and Atlanta had very little trouble against Miami's older roster. This line seems a tad inflated. I'm on the road dog.

While the Bulls will be without Diar DeRozan tonight, I still like them getting points against the Heat. Not only did Chicago win all three regular season meetings against Miami, but the Heat have been awful as favorites all season, going 19-37-3 ATS. That includes a record of 11-24-2 ATS as home favorites. Toss in that the Bulls look like a team that actually wants to reach the playoffs while the Heat seem more interested in the offseason, and Chicago's the play.

Larry got this at -169 yesterday, and it frankly should have risen as this does seem likely to hit unless Caruso gets hurt or in foul trouble. He averaged 1.5 steals and 0.7 blocks in the regular season in only 23.5 minutes per game and led the NBA in steals per 100 possessions at 3.0. He's the team's best defender (sorry, Patrick Beverley), so Caruso should be playing more than 30 minutes tonight (barring something unlikely) like he did in Wednesday's upset win in Toronto when Caruso had three blocks and three steals. Caruso averaged 2.0 steals and 0.3 blocks in the season series with Miami while playing less than 22 minutes per game. At BetMGM currently, over this number is the second-most wagered prop of the game.

The Heat are the worst cover team in the association, coming in at 30-50-3 on the season. As a home team, Miami is 14-26-2 ATS. Chicago is 5th overall in defensive efficiency for the season and rank 3rd on the road. The Bulls have been protecting the ball better than the Heat, averaging five less turnovers over each teams last three games. Chicago is the better defensive and scrappier team of late. I’m on the Bulls.

Vucevic appeared in all 82 regular season games for the Bulls, averaging 17.6 points and 11.0 rebounds. That means that he has averaged a double-double in each of the last five seasons. He plays a ton of minutes, which leaves him with a high floor in terms of points and rebounds. He recorded a double-double in all three regular season meetings with the Heat and he came away with 14 points and 13 rebounds Wednesday against the Raptors. The odds on this might not be great, but I still like it to hit.

The Heat laid an egg against the Hawks, forcing them into this elimination game against the Bulls. The Heat went 27-14 at home this season, but they were just 14-24-3 ATS. In general, they are 19-37-4 ATS as favorites. The Bulls went 3-0 against the Heat during the regular season, so even if they don’t come away with the win, look for them to put up enough of a fight to cover the spread.

I'm not sure if momentum is really a thing, and if so it's probably a little bit overrated. However, I do think there is something to be said for being in rhythm and experience good recent results in basketball. It's a very small sample size, admittedly, but teams who have won the first play-in game are more successful facing the team that has just lost, and nearly every year in the NCAA Tournament we see an 11-seed make it out of Dayton and beat its first round opponent, thanks in part to that rhythm. I think the Bulls can win, but love getting a couple possessions of wiggle room on that prediction.

It is not often I play rebounding props but there is a lot to like about this. Butler started at Forward in a lineup that consisted of Bam Adebayo, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and Tyler Herro. The Heat are opting to go small which leaves plenty of rebounding opportunities for Butler with this lineup. The Heat were absolutely embarrassed by Atlanta on then glass and they out-rebounded Miami 63-39. "Rebounding was just horrendous," Butler said. "We didn't put body on body and they got all the rebounds, all the second-chance points. And that was the game." Rebounding has been a huge point of emphasis leading up to this game and "playoff Jimmy" is going to put in work on the glass tonight.

The Bulls are a weird team, to put it mildly. But Chicago is more than capable of keeping this within five points when at full strength, which they should be tonight (minus Lonzo Ball, of course). The Bulls are covering in 60% of my model's simulations.

I couldn't resist giving out an NBA play today as it's finally playoff time! Chicago tends to focus on its interior defense by packing the paint, leaving teams more open to shoot long distance shots. They allow more than 37 three-point attempts per game, which is second most in the league. I expect them to do the same with Adebayo and Miami on Friday night, but the Heat big man excels with his passing. He was quoted as saying he's eyeing a triple-double knowing the way Chicago will defend him. If he gets even half that number of assists, I think this prop flies over.

Alex Caruso averaged 23.5 minutes during the regular season, but against Toronto in the play-in game, he started and played 31 minutes, finishing with three blocks and three steals. Caruso and Patrick Beverley are big reasons why Chicago got hot late; the Bulls ranked third in defensive rating over the final 15 regular-season games. In three regular-season matchups with Miami, Caruso made six steals and a block. And that was while averaging 21 minutes. Go Over 1.5 combined steals and blocks despite the heavy juice.