It’s tough to beat a team twice in a season. However, for this one UNLV just needs to cover. The Rebels have the 10th best rushing defense in the country while Boise State has the 6th best rush attack in the country. They lost the first match, at home, by five points and held Ashton Jeanty to season-low 3.9 yards per carry but he still had a 128 yards and one score. This game sets up to come down to the wire with a similar game plan to how the Rebels somewhat kept Jeanty in check in the first meeting.

UNLV and Boise State hookup for the Mountain West Conference championship game tonight in Boise. But a big difference in the spread from 6 weeks ago in the game they played was in Las Vegas. The spread was Boise State -4 then and now the game is Boise -4 in Boise. What gives? Perception of UNLV's wins are better? UNLV hasn't lost on the road this year and they haven’t in their last eight games on the road. UNLV is 2-2 against the spread after losing to Boise State. And Boise State won all five of their games since beating UNLV but they haven't covered their last two and are 2-3 against the spread. I think the rating differential is skewed. Boise State to win.

UNLV’s had just two losses on the year, an overtime loss to Syracuse and a loss to tonight’s opponent in Boise State. The Broncos executed at a high level to get the win, including going for it on fourth and goal before the end of the half. They also were able to close out the game with a 14 play drive that ate up the final eight minutes and seven seconds. Expect that level of execution to be difficult to repeat. Grab the points here with UNLV.

Boise State's tackling performance in 2024 has been a significant area of concern. The Broncos rank 130th in PFF's Tackling grades, which places them near the bottom of all FBS teams. This poor tackling performance is further emphasized by their ranking of 196th out of all FBS and FCS defenses in broken and missed tackles allowed. UNLV has recorded 82 tackles for loss on 376 attempts, which ranks as the 3rd best among Non-Power Conference teams. Tackling in extreme cold weather is complex, and the Runnin' Rebels have a big-time edge. They are playing with double revenge after losing earlier this season and in last year's MWC championship game. UNLV has a massive special teams advantage as well.

I can't recall a team in recent memory with more on the line than Boise State in this game. With a win, they are CFP bound and will likely land one of the four byes. With a loss, the Broncos are likely headed to the LA Bowl hosted by Gronk. These teams combined for 53 points when they played in October, and both offenses are playing better now than they were then. This is a game I expect to be highly entertaining with a final point total in the 60's.

This has become one of college football's more intriguing novelty rivalries of late as the perpetually downtrodden Rebels have turned a corner and become Boise State’s primary challenger for Mountain West supremacy. However, the Broncos should capture their fifth conference title in the last 10 years. In their regular-season meeting in Las Vegas, the Rebels limited Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty to 128 yards while consistently selling out at the line of scrimmage to slow him down. UNLV dual-threat QB Hajj-Malik Williams totaled 284 yards and three total TDs. Even so, Boise State used a late clock-eating drive to seal a 29-24 victory. Now on their home turf, look for the Broncos to again create enough separation for another win and cover.

This game should be awesome with a College Football Playoff berth on the line for both teams. The Broncos averaged 47 points per game at home during the regular season, while the Rebels have averaged 33 PPG on the road dating back to 2023. I would be stunned if we saw less than the 53 total points from October’s matchup, a 29-24 Boise State road win. Last year, the Broncos won this same game 44-20 in Las Vegas to capture the conference title. Expect plenty of fireworks and a one possession game won by Heisman finalist Ashton Jeanty’s squad. Boise State 35, UNLV 31.

Boise State easily handled UNLV in last year's MW title game in Las Vegas and then also won there close this year. I just don't see the Broncos losing on their own blue turf in what is the biggest game in school history with a trip to the CFP on the line. Keep in mind the Rebs are an indoor-built team now and it's going to be chilly in Boise on Friday night. Think that plays right into the hands of Ashton Jeanty & Co. I expect this to get to around -200.