Past Picks
If we push, we push but all three games in the series have been decided by at least three goals -- and the Oilers have won four of their six playoff home games by at least two. Dallas netminder Jake Oettinger had a road GAA more than a goal higher during the RS and has had his issues in the postseason away as well. Stars top forward Roope Hintz is a game-time call after missing Game 3 -- when he "wasn't close" according to coach Peter DeBoer despite warming up.
The storyline here is that Dallas is having trouble scoring goals again, almost blanked for the second straight in Sunday's 6-1 loss. What the Stars have shown, however, is that they're capable of winning low-scoring games in the postseason, as they did in the preceding Winnipeg series. Jake Oettinger is still solid enough in goal to expect a recovery from Sunday, when admittedly the normally-resolute Dallas defense in front of him opened too may opportunities for the Oilers. It is worth pointing out that Edmonton's Stuart Skinner experienced that one six-or-so-minute blip in Game One, otherwise has been airtight in the Oilers goal in this series, as he was when pitching shutouts in Games 4 and 5 of the preceding Vegas series. Play Stars-Oilers Under
Beyond the obvious that the Stars must get their power play and offense in gear ASAP, we aren't ready to dismiss Dallas just yet, having shown real resilience earlier in the playoffs, both vs. Colorado and Winnipeg. back against the wall, in Games 2 and 7 against Colorado, and managing a crucial road win off the bat at Winnipeg, plus winning both of their OT games in the playoffs, the Stars are resourceful if nothing else. It would help if Roope Hintz could return tonight, but Jake Oettinger has been consistent enough in goal that we give the capable Stars a shot to turn around this series tonight, and perhaps make Stuart Skinner doubt himself again in the Edmonton goal. Play Stars on Money Line
Mikko Rantanen attempted only three shots in the last two games and he hasn't scored in six straight. That won't cut it for Dallas' $96 million man. The Stars have scored just once since their 5-goal outburst in the third period of Game 1. With the season essentially on the line Tuesday, I expect Rantanen to once again be a big factor in Dallas' offense. Rantanen has attempted at least three shots on goal nine times so far in the playoffs. With the Stars' offense sputtering and top center Roope Hintz likely out again in Game 4, look for Rantanen to be a lot more aggressive.
Unless the 1942 Leafs, 1975 Islanders, 2010 Flyers, or 2014 Kings show up, this 0-3 deficit looks to be curtains for the Canes. This almost seems psychological now, as their conference finals losing streak is at 15, and having been outscored 16-4 across the first four of this series. Carolina's offense is being bogged down along the boards as well as at center ice by the Florida defense, and when the canes do create shots, Sergei Bobrovsky sees all of them. Freddy Andersen hasn't been up to the "Bob" level in goal during this series, and the Panthers' depth is affording Paul Maurice all sorts of luxuries as he gets scoring contributions from up and down his roster. Play Panthers on Puck Line
Florida looks capable of taking care of overs by itself in this series. The Panthers have scored at least five in each game, which makes five of the last six to the end of the preceding Toronto series they have landed on five or more. With scoring contributions from all of the lines, plus defenders, there is never a shift when Florida isn't executing a high-danger chances at the Carolina goal. Moreover, potential close-out games have the tendency to go over as the losing teams often pull out all of the stops when behind late, willing to risk an empty net for several minutes, and continue to risk even if surrendering goals, if behind. The Canes might be in this situation tonight. Play Canes-Panthers Over
Those who follow my picks regularly know I'm a patient bettor. I wait for spots and strike. Sometimes that works out, sometimes I kick myself. The Panthers in Game 3 is an example of the latter. I was so close to playing Florida, I actually started a writeup, then pulled back. Here was the first line, "This looks like a sweep." Well, that hasn't changed with the Panthers up 3-0. This is just a bad matchup for Carolina. The Panthers swept them in the 2023 EC Final and are now 14-5 in the last 19 meetings. I'll lay -162 early before the number moves. I think the line closes around -180.
Will go ahead and play this now because it will only go up if Dallas star center Roope Hintz is out. He left the Game 2 loss injured and is in major question for Sunday (having watched him leave the ice, I doubt he goes but hockey players are the toughest around so we shall see). I like Edmonton anyways, but especially so if he sits. Roope had 67 points and a plus-18 rating during the RS and has 11 in the playoffs while being one of the team's top guys in the faceoff circle: 7-for-14 in Game 2 before leaving. Yes, I enjoy saying Roope: "Roope, I am your father!"
Maybe that was just an outlier for Stuart Skinner, whose third period of Game One now looks a distant memory; otherwise, he's pitched shutouts in his other three starts in Edmonton's goal since Game 4 of Vegas series, including Friday vs. the Sats. While we have taken note of the Dallas resilience this postseason, the Stars have had trouble scoring goals, in fact now blanked three times in the last seven games, beginning with Game 2 of the Winnipeg series, They've also gone 143 minutes on the road without scoring a goal. Jake Oettinger has mostly been holding up his end of the bargain in the Dallas nets, however, as both his GAA (2.54) and saves (.915) have stayed consistent in postseason. Play Stars-Oilers Under
I almost pulled the trigger on Edmonton in Game 2 but decided to wait until they returned home. I think the Oilers are the best overall team in the NHL. Whether or not they win the Stanley Cup will ultimately come down to goaltending. That wasn't an issue in Game 2 when Stuart Skinner stopped all 25 shots. Dallas' center Roope Hintz might miss Sunday's game and he is a huge loss for their offense. I expect a spirited effort from the Stars but think Edmonton prevails at home to take a 2-1 series lead.
From what we've seen in this series, we'd be kicking ourselves if not laying the extra goal with Florida. Carolina looks a beaten team, outscored their first two games by a combined 10-2, with a defeated look of a team is now on a numbing 14-game losing streak in the conference finals. The current team isn't responsible for all of that, but many were also around when swept two years ago in this round by the Panthers. Those games were all tight, however; these first two haven't bene tight. Though Florida might be minus Sam Reinhart. the Panthers have more than enough depth to compensate, and GK Sergei Bobrovsky has been hot, allowing just six goals the last six games. Play Panthers on Puck Line
How many goals can we put Carolina down for in this series? Blanked in Game 2 at Raleigh, the Canes look frustrated, and why wouldn't they be as Sergei Bobrovsky in the Florida goal isn't letting anything past, blanking Carolina on Thursday and now allowing just six goals across the last six playoff games. The main concern about a lower-scoring recommendation is that Florida has looked like it can score whenever it wishes vs. Freddy Andersen, and the Panthers have scored five or more goals in four of their past five games. But if the Canes aren't doing any business, even getting past a modest 5.5 goals on the totals side looks like it is going to be a chore. Play Canes-Panthers Under
These teams combined for nine goals in Game 1, and while I don't believe they will reach that number again in Game 2, I do expect this game to reach seven goals. Edmonton has played an offensive-centric game throughout the postseason, and Dallas should have no issues scoring 3+ goals against the Oilers. In the end, I see this as a 4-3 or 5-4 type of game.
May well push, or I suppose lose, but I worry about Stuart Skinner's confidence again. The Edmonton netminder was horrible the first two games of the playoffs and benched but then eventually forced back into action due to Calvin Pickard's injury. Skinner played great the last two of the conference semifinals and the first two periods of Game 1 in Dallas before allowing five goals in the third. So we'll go ahead and roll the dice on this great number. Dallas has won seven straight home games.
Penalty-killing and Stuart Skinner...two questions for Edmonton in Game 2. The penalty kill, fragile at times in the postseason, was burned for three goals within six minutes of Game 1. The answer is obviously to quit taking penalties. As for Skinner, Cal Pickard isn't available to come to the rescue as he did in the first round vs. the Kings. It's up to him to replicate his performance in the Vegas series or else the Oilers go down 2-0. Despite all the scoring in Game 1, this still doesn't seem to shape up as a shootout series to us, with Jake Oettinger still solid in the Dallas goal, and the Stars very comfy playing games at a 3-2 pace. Play Oilers-Stars Under