What the Cardinals do well is beat bad teams -- and beat them decisively. That has been the case the entire season, and it's erroneously led me into laying them against good teams. The Panthers are a bad team. Yes, they have showed signs of life of late, but that 30-14 beating by the Cowboys last week was a sign of what is to come in this game. James Conner should run through Carolina with ease, and despite the cold weather, Kyler Murray should be able to do enough offensively to get the job done on the road despite what may seem like a substantial spread for a 7-7 team.

This is the perfect spot for James Conner to stay hot as the Cardinals' bell cow running back. We know to target running backs against the Panthers defense. The Panthers have given up the most rushing yards to running backs this season by a wide margin. I'm not going to overthink this, and love Conner in this spot.

Adam Thielen has emerged as QB Bryce Young's go-to target this season. He now is one of the only strong targets for young this week, as the Panthers are depleted at the receiver position. While Thielen has the opportunity for a higher target share, he also has a good matchup against the Cardinals secondary. The Cardinals are a slot and underneath funnel, where Thielen runs most of his routes. I like Thielen to soar past this line Sunday.

Conner has had at least 122 total yards in each of his past two games, and 110-plus total yards in four of his past six. Trey Benson and Emari Demercado are both hurt, further putting more work onto Conner's plate. The Panthers have given up 5.0 yards per carry this season, tied for the most in football with the Commanders and Saints. And they're dead-last in defensive rushing EPA, defensive rush success rate, rushing touchdowns allowed, rate of zero/negative rush yards allowed and second-worst in 5-yard rush rate allowed. No surprise, offenses average a league-most 27.8 RB rushes per game against them. The Cardinals won't be any different, plus they'll throw to Conner as evidenced by his six-game streak with at least three receptions.

After being taken 4th overall in what was an absolutely loaded class of WRs, Marvin Harrison Jr. has had a disappointing rookie season the Cardinals. While I felt he was an overrated prospect and some his peers were being overshadowed, I still expect Harrison to emerge as a strong WR1 sooner than later for the Cardinals. This looks like a potential smash spot for him against a Carolina pass defense that is 30th in EPA allowed per dropback and there is additional reason(s) to be optimistic when looking at his target profile considering he combines a very healthy 14.5 ADoT with a 19% 1st Read Target Rate. This combination allows for Harrison to have a big day on minimal volume.

This is a smash spot for James Conner, who is facing the worst rushing defense in the league (by far). The Panthers have surrendered a 100+ yard rusher in five of their last six games and that would be what I expect from Conner this week. The Cardinals' top running back has rushed for 200 combined yards over the last two weeks and should be leaned on heavily with the team's back against the wall chasing a playoff spot.

Kyler Murray's favorite target gets even more action on the road. Dude is averaging 9 catches for 89 yards in road games. He has 7 or more catches in 4 straight games and 40 total receptions in that span. Panthers are allowing a 127.4 rating when TEs are targeted, highest in the NFL. Also a 77% completion percentage.

Trey McBride holds the record for most catches in a season without a touchdown (89) but I believe that will be broken this weekend in Carolina. The Panthers have surrendered TEN receiving touchdowns to tight ends, most in the league, and I believe Kyler Murray will force more targets to his tight end in the end zone. In a must-win game for Arizona, McBride will hit paydirt for the first time through the air in the 2024 regular season.

The Cardinals are facing the number 31-ranked defense in the NFL, allowing 386 yards per game. They are dead last in rushing yards allowed, with 173 yards allowed per game. They get the Cardinals, who average 5.1 yards rushing a game, which is third in the NFL. The Cardinals take care of this type of team as long as it's not Seattle. I see a big day for John Connor and a Cardinals win. Cardinals cover.

Kyler Murray struggles to put up points as a road favorite, with a career passer rating of just 89.4 in 9 games. He is 7-1-1 to the under in those games, going under by 24.5, 22.5, 6, 1.5, 14.5, 13.5 and 8.5 points. He's also 12-7-2 to the under in his career in 1pm starts. Arizona has gone over this total in just 2 of the last 10 games, allowing 17 or less in 5 of the last 8. For all the talk of CAR offensive improvement, they are over 20 points in just 3 of the last 10 games.