This should be a no-brainer. The Steelers have dominated the Ravens and Lamar Jackson (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS), including a recent 18-16 win, and Mike Tomlin is tremendous as an underdog. Baltimore, though, faces a must-win to take the AFC North. Pittsburgh is playing its second of three road games in 11 days, and it's unlikely to have the same turnover and special teams advantages. The Steelers were so effective in that game largely due to George Pickens. Russell Wilson has thrown for fewer than 160 yards in the last two games without him. Baltimore’s defense has been a disappointment, but it can stop the run, and I’m betting that’s enough to flip this rivalry. Rashod Bateman being active is a bonus. Prefer -6.5 (-120).

Lamar Jackson has been over this total 7 times. 5 of the 7 were Baltimore losses. Of the other 2…one was an Overtime game. The other was a 35-34 game. Thus, if you believe Baltimore will win and this game won’t be played with a combined in the 70s…take the under.

Pittsburgh has Lamar Jackson's number, and here are some numbers to illustrate it. The QB's passer rating against the Steelers is 66.2, easily his worst versus a team. He has won one of five meetings straight-up, easily his lousiest rate. It appears Jackson must cope with LB T.J. Watt, who was iffy earlier in the week. Pittsburgh must find a way to score without WR George Pickens, but the track record is promising given that it has knocked off the Ravens as an underdog six consecutive times. Besides, the Ravens WR crew is thinned out by injuries. A full TD spot is healthy in a a game likely with a moderate score.

Jackson rushed for 46 yards on just 4 carries when he played Pittsburgh to an ugly 18-16 loss in Week 12. I expect him to use his mobility more this time around. Baltimore is getting thin at receiver. Nelson Agholor has been ruled out, Rashod Bateman was in a walking boot and missed practice this week, and the Diontae Johnson experiment has failed. With T.J Watt ruled in for the Steelers, Jackson will be under pressure and forced to take matters into his own hands (legs?). Jackson has 40+ rushing yards in 11/14 games this season. This game will be played in cold & windy conditions as well. Considering the Ravens lack of success in the last matchup, I like Jackson to play aggressively.

Here's a trend that's hard to overlook! Get this one in Baltimore, as the Ravens series vs. the Steelers has featured seven consecutive under results. Nothing was more Baltimore-Pittsburgh-like than the first meeting five weeks ago at Acrisure when the Steelers won 18-16 on six Chris Boswell field goals. And while the switch to Russell Wilson at QB has been generally positive for Pittsburgh, the offense misfired again last week at Philadelphia as it did a few weeks before at Cleveland. But perhaps a bigger reason why these games continue to land under is that Mike Tomlin seems have a proper plan to slow Lamar Jackson, who has only tossed 5 TD passes against 8 picks vs. Tomlin defenses in the past. Paly Steelers-Ravens Under

Derrick Henry only rushed 13 times when the Ravens lost at Pittsburgh, 18-16. I'm expecting a different game script, fewer turnovers by Baltimore, and a big workload for Henry on Saturday against a tired Steelers defense. He should be fresh after only carrying 14 times against the Giants. FanDuel has the best number at the time of posting.

This is a divisional rematch with massive stakes, and typically in that situation we should be eyeing the Under from the start. I like it even more here with George Pickens out and T.J. Watt in for the Steelers, as well as the receiver issues for Baltimore. Both Nelson Agholor and Rashod Bateman are questionable after missing Thursday's practice, and Diontae Johnson isn't an option to replace them. That may leave rookie Devontez Walker as Lamar Jackson's WR2 here, making Baltimore easier to slow down for a good Steelers defense.

The Steelers have won four straight and eight out of the last nine meetings. And the games all seem to go the same way, under the total eight straight in low-scoring affairs. The Steelers would have covered the last nine meetings with Sunday's spread. The Ravens have gone over 11 out of 14 games this season. The Ravens have the No. 1 offense and the No. 3 scoring offense. Steelers have the 9th-ranked defense averaging 316 yards per game allowed and No. 1 in turnover margin. Steelers cover.

The Ravens designed runs went nowhere in the first meeting and Steelers allow 2.0/carry on under center runs, rank 3rd in Run D success rate when a fullback on the field. Heavy stuff with Derrick Henry probably won't work. And LJ has just a 66 passer rating vs Steelers in his career. He left a ton of yards on the table not scrambling in their 2-point loss at PIT and had talked openly about needing to run more off script. He averages over 65/G in Dec and always runs more deeper in the season. I could see him being Ravens leading rusher. Averaging 53 rushing yards/G in a "down" rushing year for him. Ran for 46 in first meeting despite running just 4 times.

These two have gone under in 8 straight games, on average by 5 points below the closing figure. They are under in 11 of their last 15 meetings; 3 of those games were over 45 points. They produced 34 points in the first meeting and have played 8 straight under 40 points. The weather forecast looks daunting, with the wind in particular a potential big factor. Lamar Jackson has just a 66.2 rating vs the Steelers, and they know how to mush rush him to limit his legs. Sounds like TJ Watt is playing. Ravens kicking game stinks. Ravens defense has eliminated big plays since making major personnel changes 6 weeks ago.

They beat the Ravens already and won 6 of 7 in Baltimore. 7-2 ATS in last 9 meetings overall. The Steelers held ball for 36 minutes in the first game, and their defensive front i a big problem for a suspect OL. Lamar Jackson’s worst game came in their first meeting and he has a career 66.3 passer rating vs them. Ravens are just 2-3-1 ATS at home. Mike Tomlin appears to be in their heads. Ravens most penalized team in NFL and create no turnovers (2 in the last 4 weeks), while Steelers thrive on elite special teams and takeaways. Chris Boswell vs Justin Tucker is a mismatch. Forecast is for bitter cold, a big problem for Lamar. Dogs rule in AFC North.